Tuesday Selections

A summary of the bets for the night is available below. A review will be posted soon after the full time whistles.

Good luck to anyone involved!

BRISTOL CITY (DNB) v Reading 1pt @ 11/10

Burnley v NOTTINGHAM FOREST 1pt @ 21/10

Portsmouth v Peterborough Under 2.5 goals 2pts @ Evens

Forest Green Rovers v NEWPORT COUNTY (DNB) 1pt @ 8/5

Total Outlay: 5 points

Forest Green v Newport Tip

After getting burned when opposing Forest Green once beforethis season, I am going back to the well and taking on Dave Hockaday’s men as they face Newport County at home this evening.

Amazingly, Newport travel to Gloucestershire with just one win under their belts all season – a 4-0 thrashing of Hayes and Yeading at home in their second game of the campaign. Since then, County have not won in nine league games – a run that includes five defeats. However, of those defeats, two were away at teams with playoff aspirations (5-0 at Mansfield and 1-0 at Braintree) while defeats at home to Kidderminster and Cambridge are frustrating more than humiliating.

Since the 5-0 thrashing received at Field Mill, Newport have certainly made changes to improve defensively. Braintree and Stockport were held to single goals as County lost 1-0 away and drew 1-1 at home to those sides, while a last ditch Barrow equaliser in south Wales on Saturday cost Newport all three points in what could have been a 2-1 win. It would be a genuine shock to see County stay at the wrong end of the table for much longer, and the signs of a recovery of sorts are beginning to show through.

Forest Green meanwhile have been most successful when conducting their business away from home. They are unbeaten in six away contests – including some impressive results at Luton (1-1), Cambridge (1-1), Alfreton (6-1) and Tamworth (1-0). However, their home record is not something that should put fear into the hearts of Newport followers. Since Stockport were held 1-1 on the opening night of the season, Braintree (2-0), Grimsby (1-0) and Southport (3-2) have all collected three points. Only bottom club Bath suffered defeat on Rovers’ turf, as they went down 3-0.

That makes the 8/5 available on Newport ‘draw no bet’ a very tasty proposition indeed. Forest Green’s home record is probably a better reflection of their abilities than their away record so far, while the green shoots may just begin to shoot through for Newport after a miserable start to their season.

Suggestion:

Forest Green Rovers v NEWPORT COUNTY – Draw No Bet 1pt @ 8/5 (Coral)

Portsmouth v Peterborough Tip

Peterborough United have rightly earned a reputation as one of the more entertaining sides in the country, but they could be a part of a low scoring game on the south coast this evening.

Darren Ferguson’s Posh were on many a punters’ radar as a team that could be trusted to bring home bets on over 2.5 goals most weeks, and they began the season securing those bets without fail in the first five games in league and cup. That run was capped by an amazing 7-1 thumping of Ipswich Town at Loftus Road, but since then, the goals have started to show signs of drying up. In Peterborough’s next five matches, just one has involved three goals or more – a 2-1 win at home against Burnley. Meanwhile, Posh have suffered two 2-0 defeats (v Middlesbrough, @ Brighton) and two 1-0 defeats (v Hull and @ West Ham).

Add to those stats the potentially long-term absence of former Rushden and Diamonds man Lee Tomlin after he picked up an ankle injury at Upon Park on Saturday, and there is good reason to begin considering the prospect that under 2.5 goals may be being over-priced in Peterborough games.

Posh also head to face the under 2.5 kings on Tuesday night, in Portsmouth. Pompy defeated Blackpool 1-0 with a 9^th minute goal on Saturday – much my frustration – a score that continued a run of five consecutive home games with under 2.5 goals. Indeed, only an opening day 2-2 draw at Middlesbrough and a 4-3 loss at West Ham have seen Portsmouth be involved in games with more than two goals. The number of bookings and red cards picked up by Portsmouth this season also suggests a physical, rather than beautiful, style of football is being played at Fratton Park and that could lead to another low scoring encounter tonight. Luke Varney (suspension) and Dave Kitson are also out, meaning more problems for the hosts upfront.

Suggestion:

Portsmouth v Peterborough – Under 2.5 goals 2pts @ Evens (general)

Burnley v Nottingham Forest Tip

The pressure on the shoulders of Nottingham Forest manager Steve McClaren was temporarily reduced when his side claimed a 1-0 win away at Watford on the BBC on Saturday evening, but that reprieve will end very quickly if Forest are beaten at Turf Moor tonight.

Forest travel to face a Burnley side who are yet to win at home in the league, but who were just ten minutes away from ending that record on Saturday, before Southampton fought back to earn a 1-1 draw. Burnley came into that contest on the back of two straight defeats in the league, away at Peterborough and at home to Middlesbrough – however, they did defeat the MK Dons 2-1 at home as well, as predicted here. Whether that result, coupled with the point on Saturday, will signal a change in fortunes for the ex-Premiership side who now rest 21^st in the Championship, only time will tell, but injuries to Keith Treacy and Junior Stanislas will not help their cause tonight. Burnley rely on scoring goals to have a chance in any game, as they are yet to keep a clean sheet this season, conceding at least twice at home against Watford (2-2), Burton Albion (3-3 after 90 minutes), Barnet (2-2 after 90 minutes) and Middlesbrough (0-2). Only Cardiff had been held to a single goal at Turf Moor (1-1) before the Saints Saturday visit.

Forest, meanwhile, have been dipping in and out of good and abject form all season. McClaren’s side hit the news for all the wrong reasons when blowing a lead against 10-man Derby County at home in a 2-1 defeat to their bitter rivals, but they showed plenty of heart in an eventual 4-3 home defeat to Newcastle United in the Carling Cup – three times coming from behind. Their two wins out of four on the road, however, does show signs of promise. While their former City Ground fortress may have been breached too often for the City fans liking, McClaren’s side have shown the ability to beat teams on the road who they should expect to be beating. While Millwall (2-0 in an early August game) and Southampton (3-2) have defeated Forest, Gunter and Miller goals secured 1-0 wins at Doncaster and Watford respectably.

While home fans may not accept this, Burnley fall into the category of teams that Forest would expect to be beating away from home. Long-term injuries will keep Dexter Blackstock and Chris Cohen out, amongst others, but McClaren should name and unchanged side from that which won on Saturday at Vicarage Road. That means that Lee Camp, Ishmael Miller, Jonathan Greening and Luke Chambers should all start – a reminder of the quality which the side possesses. Burnley manager Eddie Howe may still be speaking of back-to-back wins opening the door to the top six, but that hope could look to be even further from the truth at full-time.

Given the above, three big questions still remain from a betting point of view. Does the value lay in backing Forest to win straight up (21/10), to win to nil (4/1) or to win with the draw a no bet (22/19). Each can make up their own mind from here, but personally, there is still a strong sense that Forest have not shown quite enough to be considered trustworthy at this stage. However, while that fact pushes me towards the very reasonable draw no bet price, 21/10 is a price that I just think is plainly too big, and for that reason being price-sensitive is the smarter move onto a Forest win.

Suggestion:

Burnley v NOTTINGHAM FOREST 1pt @ 21/10 (VC)

Bristol City v Reading Tip

Reading may sit eight places above Bristol City heading into their contest at Ashton Gate on Tuesday night, but the struggling Royals could find themselves below their opponents in the table when the full-time whistle blows.

Reading’s 8 point hall from their first 8 games is only two more than Bristol City’s 6, and Saturday’s 1-1 draw at Coventry has done little to inspire belief that last season’s playoff finalists are poised to kick their 11/12 campaign into a higher gear. Reading have two victories to their name this season – a 2-0 away win at Leicester on the second weekend of the season, and a 2-0 home win against a Doncaster side without their best players and just days away from getting rid of their manager. In their other contests, Brian McDermott’s side have failed to take advantage of a less than daunting early season fixture list. Millwall should have claimed a win at the Madejski Stadium on the opening day before two late Reading goals forced a 2-2 draw, while Barnsley, Hull, Portsmouth and Watford have all taken three points from the Berkshire side.

Of better news for Reading could be the developing partnership at centre back between Alex Pearce and Kaspars Gorkss, as praised here by Jobi McAnuff. Reading are yet to concede more than twice in a game this season, and have now conceded just one goal in over a 180 minutes of competitive football (Gary McSheffrey’s second minute strike for Coventry at the Ricoh on Saturday).

The Reading defence will certainly be looking to improve their record against a Bristol City team that has only scored more than one goal in a game once this season – like Reading, the Robins earned an early season win (2-1) away to Leicester City at the Walkers Stadium. However, Ipswich, Portsmouth and Brighton have all travelled to the south west and kept the hosts off the scoreboard – a 79^th minute Brett Pitman goal to salvage a 1-1 draw against Hull City on Saturday was the first home league goal of the season for Keith Millen’s men. That leaves the manager with a selection problem for tonight, after Pitman’s appearance from the bench on Saturday came after the two first choice strikers – Jon Stead and Nicky Maynard – were replaced.

These sides have totalled just three wins between them all season – with one each of those against Leicester, and Reading’s victory over Doncaster not exactly a sign of dramatic improvement. However, it is hard to see what justifies the 8/5 price on the Royals – making them clear favourites. City have lost just two of their last five in the league, a 2-1 defeat at Elland Road where the Robins will feel they should have gained a point, and a 1-0 defeat at home to high flying Brighton. Both Cardiff and Ipswich scored three against City to begin the season, but since then the defence has tightened up conceding six goals in six games. With Reading hardly prolific in front of goal that could make this a tight and low scoring encounter.

2/1 on Bristol City does seem a reasonable price then, but the draw is a very live player in this match with the inability of either side to take three points often this season. The better bet may then to be to take the 11/10 available on Bristol City as a ‘draw no bet ’proposition. Considering how evenly matched these teams look, having odds against on the hosts is a good opportunitym as it is hard to see Reading as favourites to take all three points based on their respective efforts this season. With Jimmy Kebe also expected to be missing from the visitors starting line-up, Robins fans may be the happier by 10pm this evening.

It should also be noted that the under 2.5 goal price is a best price 8/11 – the correct price for this one and not worth taking on.

Suggestion:

BRISTOL CITY v Reading: Draw-no-bet 1pt @ 11/10 (Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Coral)

Norwich 2-1 Sunderland

No bet was the selection last night, and Norwich proved a number of doubters wrong with a 2-1 win at Carrow Road.

Barnett opened the scoring for the hosts just after the half hour mark, a lead that was doubled from a Morrison header just after the interval. Black Cats manager Steve Bruce blamed individual errors from his key players for the defeat, which was confirmed not long after Kieran Richardson pulled a goal back on 86 minutes.

Check back later today for the tips for tonight.

Norwich v Sunderland Preview

Five games played and five points each as Sunderland head to Norwich for the Monday Night Football action on Sky Sports this evening.

However, from a betting point of view, there is no obvious edge to be found even after examining the facts and stats around the matchup. Norwich were seconds away from an impressive home win against Stoke early in the season before conceding a 94^th minute equaliser, while Paul Lambert’s side were also unfortunate not to pick up at least a point at Stamford Bridge where they created a host of chances against Chelsea. A win at Bolton last time out placed more misery onto the shoulders of the troubled Wanderers, but in their last home match, the Canaries were beaten 1-0 by West Bromwich Albion thanks to an early defensive error from Ritchie De Laet. Those stats highlight that there is not a very clear read available on the hosts yet – who have also developed a peculiar habit of conceding a penalty each time they take to the field in the Premier League this season.

As for ex-Norwich City man Steve Bruce, he is beginning to face some pressure as he brings his Sunderland side south. The reasons for the pressure, however, appear to be more based around the fear of an upcoming lack of progress rather than any problems in real life – aside from the obviously troubling 1-0 home defeat to Newcastle. Sunderland fans were saddened to see Ghanaian striker Asamoah Gyan leave before the transfer window closed and the fear of stagnation is beginning to envelope some of the supporters at the Stadium of Light. The Black Cats began the season with a very credible draw away at Liverpool, before that home loss to their bitter rivals, however. A 0-0 draw away at Swansea potentially provides some insight as to how the contest this evening may turn out, which Bruce’s side followed up with variable home performances – a 2-1 loss to Chelsea and a 4-0 demolishing of a Stoke side who may still be adapting to the legwork required when playing a tough Europa League game away in Eastern Europe a few days before returning to the domestic scene.

It is not clear, then, quite what to expect tonight – it would be foolish and a lie to pretend that I had a strong feeling about how this contest will ultimately pan out. Many may point how close Aston Villa came to win at QPR yesterday as evidence that the hosts are under-priced at 6/4 – and considering the loss to West Brom and the problems at Bolton (Norwich’s sole Premiership scalp), they may be correct in doing so. However, 11/5 on the visitors is hardly a price that jumps out, given that Sunderland’s 4-goal explosion against Stoke may have had less to do with the solving of their goal scoring problems (just two goals in five matches prior to that game) and more to do with Stoke’s European exploits.

With big questions over who may win, and a feeling that the 0-0 draw which Sunderland earned at Swansea may be a good guide for this game, the over/under prices are also prohibitive. Under 2.5 goals is a best price 4/5, which is probably the correct price for the favourite outcome.

It is not often that this blog will ever recommend a complete ‘no bet’ – after all, why would anyone bother to read a betting preview if they didn’t want some advice. However, this blog focuses more on honesty than bluffing, and in that regard there are no prices tonight that I think merit an outlay. Sunderland at 6/5 on the draw no bet market does seem to be the most interesting to those really looking to get involved – and it is the one direction that I would hesitantly point to for ‘an interest’ – but this game is best watched for future reference.

Suggestion:

NO BET

QPR 1-1 Aston Villa

Finally, some stoppage time good luck, rather than bad. QPR came back in the 93rd minute to snatch a 1-1 draw against Aston Villa, as a Richard Dunne own-goal cost Villa three points at Loftus Road.

Defeat would have been harsh on Rangers however, after they dominated the first half and fell behind to an exceedingly dubious penalty early in the second. Rangers had their own penalty shout turned down later in the half, before being reduced to ten men when Traore was sent off for a second yellow card. However, just as defeat seemed certain, Villa allowed a low ball into the box which Stephen Warnock smashed into the legs of Dunne, with the rebound leaving Shay Given helpless. It was no more than the home team deserved and was a welcome relief to those who followed the advice of this blog.

Outcome: No bet - stake returned as a result of draw

Total loss for season: 0.07 points

QPR v Aston Villa Tip

Impressive in a 0-0 home draw against Newcastle United in front of the Sky cameras earlier this season, plenty of punters will be interested in having QPR on-side in their Sunday afternoon contest against Aston Villa.

Buoyed by the signings of Joey Barton, D.J. Campbell and Shaun Wright-Phillips, QPR look capable of putting up more of a fight in the top-flight than they did at the start of the season. Their 4-0 opening day home defeat to Bolton seems a lifetime ago, and should be seen as such in betting terms. Since then, Rangers have picked up a 1-0 victory at Everton, and although they were beaten 2-0 at Wigan, they then went on to dominate against Newcastle in a 0-0 draw and stun Wolves 3-0 at Molineux.  Goals from Barton, Faulin and Campbell in the west midlands highlight the number of options Rangers are developing in their attacking game – which has kicked into another gear since the arrival of Wright-Phillips.

At the back, Rangers are also an outfit to be increasingly reckoned with. The attacking threat means that the defence have less of the ball coming at them than they did early in the campaign, and Everton, Newcastle and Wolves have all failed to find the back of Paddy Kenny’s net.

That defensive record could well be extended against an increasingly flailing Aston Villa strike-force. Both Darren Bent and Emile Heskey look set to miss out at Loftus Road thanks to injury – facts that pile much of the attacking pressure onto the shoulders of Agbonlahor. The talented young striker has found the net three times already this season in the league, but there are concerns over whether Alex McLeish can get enough goals from the rest of the team. Although Villa did score three at home to Blackburn and two at Everton, they were also shutout at Fulham and at home to Wolves, and looked poor in a 2-0 home Carling Cup defeat to Bolton during the week.

However, in Shay Given, Villa have their own top class weapon between the sticks. Given was exceptional in the 1-1 home draw against Newcastle, and has the ability to almost single-handedly affect a result with his shot-stopping. Villa will not want to rely too heavily on Given of course, but they could well be in for a long afternoon if their ‘keeper is not on top form.

All the feeling about this game then seems to point to a QPR victory and under 2.5 goals. However, Villa are certainly no mugs and possess the quality in the side to make a mockery of a 12/5 price away from home at the newly promoted Rangers. At a best price 4/6 about under 2.5 goals, the bookmakers are clearly of a similar mindset in terms of the qualities of both defences, and we should be wary of taking a price that is too short by virtue of being carried away by sentiment. That fact means that the best value may lay with QPR in the ‘draw-no-bet’ market at 4/6 – a price that takes into account the possibility of Given and the Aston Villa defence making it a frustrating afternoon for the newly confident hosts.

Suggestion:

QUEENS PARK RANGERS  v Aston Villa 1pt DNB @ 4/6 (Boylesports and Coral)

Saturday Review

After a rough week, back to the world of profit this evening, albeit modest. Review below:

Aldershot 0-1 CRAWLEY TOWN : Only one goal at the Rec on the day that Aldershot found out that they would host Manchester United in the Carling Cup 4th Round. Doughty with the only goal on 64 minutes to secure the points for Steve Evans' side.

Portsmouth 1-0 BLACKPOOL (DNB) : Oh dear! Heading for the 'no bet' element of this tip when with virtually the final kick of the contest Portsmouth snatched a winner. 94th minute heartbreak after a level contest.

Wigan Athletic 1-2 SPURS : Comfortable enough for Spurs, although they perhaps should have put the home side away by more than a one goal margain. Early goals from Bale and Van der Vaart enough to grab three points.

Wigan Athletic 1-2 SPURS : Over 2.5 goals secured here as well when Diame pulled one back for Wigan on 50 minutes.

Summary of Bets:

Three Winners: Spurs win 1pt @ 5/6

                        Wigan v Spurs Over 2.5 goals 1pt @ 10/11

                        Crawley win 1pt @ 7/5

One loser: Blackpool DNB 1pt @ 23/17

Profit for day = 2.14 points

Total running loss for season = 0.07 points

Saturday Selections

Four bets for this Saturday afternoon then as I look to recover from the frustrating Brighton v Leeds contest from last night.

Aldershot v CRAWLEY TOWN (1pt win @ 7/5)

Portsmouth v BLACKPOOL (DNB) (1pt @ 23/17)

Wigan Athletic v SPURS (1pt win @ 5/6)

Wigan Athletic v Spurs Over 2.5 goals (1pt @ 10/11)

Check back later for a review, and feel free to add comments to disagree!

Aldershot v Crawley Tip

Aldershot head into their game with Crawley this afternoon in a rich run of form, but they may well come back to Earth with a bump when they face the rich men of League Two.

The ‘shots made it through to the fourth round of the Carling Cup for the first time in their history when they defeated Rochdale 2-1at home in midweek, with ex-Rushden and Diamonds man Michael Rankine amongst the goals. That victory has made it six wins from eight for Aldershot in all competitions, a run that includes two draws. The hosts have not lost since a 2-0 defeat at Morecambe over a month ago, a defeat that followed consecutive home reverses against Torquay and Northampton (both 1-0).

Defeat at home was avoided against the other newly promoted side, AFC Wimbledon, only thanks to a 95^th minute leveller however, and the 2-0 win at strugglers Hereford has been Aldershot’s only win by more than the odd goal. That, of course, will not worry manager Dean Holdsworth too much if his side keep winning, but Crawley could be their stiffest league test of the season.

As for Steve Evans’ Sussex side, adapting to life in League Two has been slightly more bumpy than many expected. After three wins from four to kick start their campaign (including conceding a 90^th minute leveller at Port Vale on the opening day), Crawley hit the rocks with a 3-1 defeat at Cheltenham. Since then, they defeated Bristol Rovers 4-1 at home, before being demolished 6-0 at Morecambe. A 3-0 home defeat against Swindon did little to restore confidence, but a much better second half display saw Crawley overturn a 1-0 home deficit against Bradford last Saturday, en route to a 3-1 win. Doubters will point to the fact that Crawley have lost four in a row on the road, and only won one of six encounters away from home this season (a solid enough 3-1 win at Torquay), but those facts do include defeats at Crystal Palace (Carling Cup) and Southend (JPT) to bolster their appearance.

With Steve Evans beginning to make changes during the week – John Dempster being loaned out to K*ttering - the Crawley players will be well aware that there can be no passengers if they want to stay with the club, and ultimately their recent run should turn out to be a minor blip in form. That makes the 7/5 available on a win this afternoon very appealing and a price that should not be turned down.

Suggestion:

Crawley WIN 1pt @ 7/5 (Stan James and Ladbrokes)

Portsmouth v Blackpool Tip

Regular readers of this blog will know the high regard inwhich I hold Blackpool as a team to follow in the Championship this season. Once again, they are the subject of another selection as they head to the south coast to face Portsmouth this afternoon.

Ian Holloway’s troops are in the midst of a four game unbeaten run in the league, and have only been beaten once all season (excluding a penalty shootout defeat at Sheffield Wednesday in the Carling Cup) – when Derby County claimed a 1-0 win at Bloomfield Road. Hull (away), Peterborough (home)and Ipswich (home) have all failed to claim a point against Blackpool, while Crystal Palace (away), Cardiff (home) and Brighton (away) have all been held to a draw. Veteran striker Kevin Phillips has already bagged five league goals this campaign and will once again pose a real danger to the Portsmouth rearguard.

As for Portsmouth, that defence has kept two clean-sheets this season against Reading (home) and Bristol City (away), and has only conceded more than a single goal on two occasions (Middlesbrough away when the score was 2-2, and a dramatic 4-3 loss at West Ham). Of more concern for home supporters may well be the clubs lack of discipline, with the sending off in consecutive games of Liam Lawrence and Luke Varney. Lawrence will return today, but Varney misses out, and Portsmouth also had five players booked in games against Brighton and Middlesbrough.

This could well be another low scoring encounter at Fratton Park – in four league and home matches this season from Portsmouth there have been just five total goals. But the value lays with the visitors at 23/17 in draw-no-bet market. Portsmouth may have just enough to stifle the Blackpool attack, but missing Luke Varney will not help their attacking prospects and if anyone should come out on top, it will most likely be the visitors.

Suggestion:

Blackpool Draw-No-Bet 1pt @ 23/17 (bwin)

Wigan v Spurs Tips

Spurs seemed to put their slow start to the season behind in their demolition of an abject looking Liverpool last Sunday, and they will head to Wigan full of confidence this week.

It was only two years ago that Spurs inflicted a club record 9-1 defeat on Wigan in a contest at White Hart Lane, but Wigan fought back last season in the matches between the two clubs – winning 1-0 against Spurs at White Hart Lane and not conceding a goal against the North London club in 180 minutes of football. However, 5/6 seems a fair price about Tottenham claiming all three points this afternoon given the impressive additions to the Spurs squad before the transfer window. Scott Parker and Emmanuel Adebayor provide the strength and finishing prowess respectively that perfectly compliment both Luka Modric and Jermaine Defoe, and their impact was clear for all to see last weekend. Even with Roman Pavlyuchenko and Niko Kranjcar missing for Spurs, their strength in depth going forward should make goals certain.

As for Wigan, the absence of Hugo Rodallega will make life especially hard for Roberto Martinez’s men. Wigan have hardly been prolific goalscorers this season, finding the net more than once only in a 2-0 home win against QPR. They come into this match on the back of three straight defeats against Everton (League), Crystal Palace (Carling Cup) and Manchester City (League) – although they are yet to lose at home in the league after that win against QPR and a 1-1 draw with Norwich.

Spurs, meanwhile, have shown that they have metal when it comes to playing on the road. The 3-0 defeat at Old Trafford was probably a fairer reflection of United’s greatness than Spurs’ shortcomings, while they destroyed Hearts 5-0 in a hostile Europa League environment and were impressive 2-0 winners at Wolves in their last away Premiership game.

In terms of a goals bet, Spurs are 3/4 in terms of going over 2.5 goals in Premiership games this year, while Wigan are 2/5. That may suggest that there is nothing too exciting about the 10/11 overs bet available at Boylesports, but with Spurs’ prevalent attacking options and Jermaine Defoe’s fantastic 10-goal record against Wigan, it is high enough to draw real interest.

Suggestions:

Spurs win 1pt @ 5/6 (various)

Over 2.5 goals 1pt @ 10/11 (Boylesports and Totesport)

Brighton 3-3 Leeds

I predicted excitement at the AMEX Stadium on Friday night, and the contest between Brighton and Leeds duly turned into a thriller. However, despite the six goals in total, one key prediction did not come to fruition.

CHECKLIST (pre-game expectations):

Over 2.5 goals - Check
Leeds pose real attacking threat - Check
Craig Mackail Smith to make impact - Check
Leeds to score a crucial goal late on - Check
Leeds to avoid crucial defensive errors and win - FAIL

Talk about coming close. The visitors were 2-0 to the good before half an hour had been played after Ross McCormack had doubled Andy Keogh's early strike. That lead was maintained comfortably into the second half, before the madness descended upon the United defence. First, Craig Mackail-Smith was allowed to move into the box to cut the deficit in half with a cool, low finish across the goalkeeper. Then, soon after, Leigh Bromby dived in for no real reason on Mackail-Smith in the box - setting up a penalty that Ashley Barnes converted in the same efficient fashion as he did against Liverpool on Wednesday.

At 2-2, Leeds were shell shocked after having three points seemingly locked up. Worse was to come for the travelling supporters when Mackail-Smith tapped in from close range late on to seemingly secure the win for the hosts. However, McCormack grabbed a second late in injury time to grab Leeds a point at the death.

A hideously frustrating night for Leeds backers - especially those of us who turned down the draw-no-bet option, only to see Leeds do exactly as I suggested they might and push on to score a goal at the death that would change the game. On a night that should have seen profit, Leeds could not escape from themselves, and defensive errors blew the away victory for them.

Summary of Bets


One loser: Brighton v LEEDS 1pt @ 13/5


One winner: Over 2.5 goals 1pt @ 8/11


Total Loss: 0.27 points


Total Loss for season: 2.21 points

Brighton v Leeds Tips

Brighton against Leeds may not sound like the most interesting game of the weekend, but those who tune-in to Sky Sports tonight could well be in for a treat.

Both clubs come into the contest on the back of high profile, nationally televised, Carling Cup defeats during the week. Leeds travel to the south coast 72 hours after a home defeat against Manchester United, while Brighton are back in action at the AMEX Stadium just 48 hours after they were beaten 2-1 by Liverpool. Both of those contests were viewed through the prism of this match by both respective clubs, and though Leeds have the advantage of the extra day of rest, that should be negated by the fact that Brighton have not had to travel during the week.

The ‘home factor’ will also be playing on the minds of both sets of fans. After promotion from League One last season, the Seagulls are enjoying every minute of playing in their new home, and goalkeeper Casper Ankergren (playing against his former employers tonight) has not been the only Brighton player to outline the effect of playing in front of full houses rather than with the dreadful atmosphere ‘created’ more often than not at the Withdean Stadium. The 12^th man has certainly been useful to Gus Poyet’s talented side so far this campaign, with Albion unbeaten at home in the league (3 games/2 wins) and also despatching Gillingham and Premier League Sunderland in the Carling Cup. They will certainly be looking to bounce back after the home defeat to Liverpool was their first failure at their new home in competitive football.

The hosts lay third in the division after a 1-0 away defeat to Leicester last Saturday but will still boast a dangerous attacking threat. That defeat was Brighton’s first goalless effort of the new season, and although Craig Mackail-Smith has only bagged three goals this term he remains a potent threat for opposition defences. However, influential midfielder Will Buckley misses out for the hosts after aggravating a hamstring injury in the game against Liverpool.

Leeds themselves have no injury problems as they head the south coast, and Simon Grayson should have a full twenty-man squad to choose from tonight. That could mean a return for Luciano Becchio, while Billy Paynter also returns from injury. These returns leave Grayson with no shortage of attacking options at his own disposal, and with Ross McCormack already on seven goals in all competitions so far this season, Leeds have the firepower to trouble the Brighton defence repeatedly. However, all has not gone well for United on their travels so far this season. They have not won any of their three away trips in the league, a campaign that started off with the equivalent of a 3-1 mauling at Southampton, where the scoreline fails to tell the full story. An equaliser with the last kick off the game at West Ham salvaged a point in East London, but defeat at stuttering Ipswich hardly put concerns to bed.

However, Grayson has been happy with his sides’ efforts away from home despite those results, and their may well be good reason for confidence beyond the headline figures. Leeds were in control at Ipswich, and in the lead, before they were reduced to ten-men shortly after the interval and then only succumbed to a stoppage time defeat. Arguably, a point was the least that they deserved at West Ham after bossing most of the second half and they did defeat Doncaster 2-1 away from home in the Carling Cup.

Wins have just about been coming at Elland Road for Leeds as well, with Hull being put to the sword 4-1 in August, before late goals were enough to see off Crystal Palace (3-2) and Bristol City (2-1). It is hardly stellar form, but there may be some truth to Grayson’s words of confidence in the performances of his team, and with the attacking capabilities and ability to battle on and score late goals, it is hard to count out Leeds’ chances tonight.

I tipped over 3.5 goals in the midweek Leeds v Man Utd encounter only to be scuppered by the host’s inability to find the back of the net. Goals look certain to be on the cards again tonight, however, in what promises to be an exciting encounter, and 8/11 about over 2.5 goals looks just about big enough to be of interest. While there may be some concern that the short-week could catch up with both sets of players, both sides, especially Leeds, have the depth of quality in their squads to still be able to score goals.

Indeed, it is the depth of quality that the visitors possess, alongside the absence of Will Buckley for Brighton, that also makes Leeds stand out as valuable options on their own. Given the 13/8 available on the draw-no-bet market, and the 13/5 available about the straight-up away win, I’m opting to put trust in the visitors to complete the job and come away with the three points they have been waiting for on the road. Brighton will ultimately end up with a very good home record this season, but Leeds are primed to inflict the first home league defeat upon the Seagulls.

SUGGESTION:

Over 2.5 goals. 1pt @ 8/11 (Boylesports and Skybet)

Leeds win 1pt @ 13/5 (various – including Stan James) 

Wednesday Results

Well...at least the Carling Cup is over for another round!

After some successful tipping in previous stages of the competition, including Shrewsbury winning at Derby County, it has been a very poor week, with just one winner from five selections. Last night, Manchester City did the business comfortably enough against Birmingham City, but Chelsea (reduced to ten men when Alex was sent off in the second half) could not muster a goal in 90 minutes against Fulham. Their ultimate victory on penalties came as too little too late for my suggested double.

Summary of Bets

One loser: Manchester City and Chelsea double 3pts @ 0.73/1

Total Loss: 3 points


Total Loss for season: 1.94 points

Favourites likely in charge

The Wednesday night action in the Carling Cup does not throw up a great deal in terms of genuine betting opportunities, with the majority of games affected by squad rotations from both teams. This adds the irritating air of mystery to the majority of games that puts them firmly into 'no bet' territory.

Changes, for example, are expected for both Southampton and Preston in their contest at St. Mary's, while the intriguing clash between Leicester and Cardiff in South Wales will likely see both managers blooding a number of new faces from outside their first choice eleven.

Brighton fans, players and staff are of course excited for the visit of Liverpool to south coast on Sky Sports this evening, but again manager Gus Poyet could leave a few key faces out of his Championship side with a packed set of fixtures on the horizon. Steven Gerrard could return for Liverpool from the bench, and Kenny Dagleish did put out a strong side in the previous round of the competition when the Reds won comfortably against League One Exeter. However, a best price of 8/13 about the visitors is enough to deter any interest from a betting perspective (general).

The value may come tonight in opposing those sides who have extra reason to view the Carling Cup as an unnecessary distraction. Neither Fulham nor Birmingham are blessed with huge squads and both are heavily involved in Europa League action this season, as well as the Premiership and Championship respectively. Both sides are away to Premiership title chasers tonight, as Fulham prepare for a West London derby against Chelsea while Birmingham travel to face Manchester City. Again, all four sides will ring the changes, but the immense depth of quality that the top three sides in the Premier League possess was highlighted by the way that Manchester United dealt with Leeds United last night. Chelsea's youngsters and Manchester City's reserves (Hargreaves and possibly Tevez included) should both deal comfortably with their weakened opponents tonight - lets not forget that Fulham barely had an off-season after qualifying for the Europa League meant competitive action in July.

Suggestion:

3pts MANCHESTER CITY (1/5) v Birmingham and CHELSEA (4/9) v Fulham double @ William Hill.
Odds = 0.73/1

Tuesday Results

Oh dear! Not quite the night that I had planned, but not a complete disaster either...

BURNLEY 2-1 MK Dons - First up is the positive result of the night, as Burnley just about delivered the win at Evens. They were hardly convincing however, being 1-0 down early on and only striking home the winning goal in the 89th minute.

Aldershot 2-1 Rochdale (Under 2.5) -The goals in this one came each time an unders backer would just about start to feel confident. Rochdale opened the scoring just prior to half-time, with Aldershot equalising immediately after the break. Defeat for both the visitors and the selection came in the 78th minute as Aldershot advanced to the Fourth Round for the first time in their history.

Leeds 0-3 Manchester United (Over 3.5) - Defeat as an overs backer this time, again by just one goal, in what I think is a justifiably unlucky outcome. Man Utd were 3-0 up before half-time as Michael Owen bagged a brace and Ryan Giggs put the outcome beyond reasonable doubt. However, no goals came at all in the second half, Leeds spurning a great one-on-one chance in the final seconds to leave the total goals at three.

TAMWORTH 0-1 Forest Green Rovers - The nap selection of the night was ironically the tip that was furthest from the mark. Forest Green maintained their excellent start to the season away from home (still unbeaten) thanks to an early own-goal when Paul Green deflected the ball into his own net. Tamworth's first home defeat of the year came despite them hitting the bar in the second half.


Summary of Bets


One winner: BURNLEY v MK Dons 1pt at Evs

Three losers: TAMWORTH v Forest Green Rovers 2pts @ 5/4
                     Aldershot v Rochdale Under 2.5 1pt @ Evs
                     Leeds v Man Utd Over 3.5 1pt @ 6/5

Total Loss: 3 points


TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 1.06 points

Check back later today for the selections for matches this evening.

Tuesday Selections

Four games with selections tonight as the Carling Cup and Blue Square Premier take the spotlight on the domestic scene.

BURNLEY (1pt) v MK Dons

UNDER 2.5 (1pt) Aldershot v Rochdale

OVER 3.5 (1pt) Leeds v Man Utd

TAMWORTH (2pts) v Forest Green

An outlay of 5pts on the night, check back this evening for a review of the selections.

Tamworth value in BSP

Luton Town will be the banker bet of many punters in the Blue Square Premier tonight, but instead of taking the Hatters to win at 4/7 at Bath, the real value could lay in trusting Tamworth to pick up all three points at home to Forest Green.

The bookmakers do not seem to have properly responded to the excellent start to the season made by Marcus Law and the Lambs, who lay in 6^th place – 10 places and seven points ahead of their visitors from Gloucestershire. Tamworth have already despatched York (2-1), Darlington (1-0) and Ebbsfleet (1-0) at home this campaign, only being held to a 2-2 draw by Telford on their own patch, in a game where the hosts had built a 2-0 lead. A 2-0 win against the cuckoos from K*ttering last time out was convincing enough to provide yet more security to the idea that Tamworth may find comfort in mid table this season. Ambitious manager Marcus Law will hardly be wanting to rest on his laurels however, and will be desperate to secure three more points on their own turf.

As for the visitors, Forest Green do bring an unbeaten away record with them to the West Midlands. Three 1-1 draws have been secured against Luton, Ebbsfleet and Cambridge – results that are not to be dismissed – alongside a 6-1 thrashing of Alfreton. However, the draw at Luton was the Hatters first game of the season, and a 3-2 home defeat against Southport on Saturday hardly inspires confidence that Rovers will be capable of escaping another relegation dogfight this season. Rovers also provided out of form Grimsby with a 1-0 win in their previous home game, and while they certainly have a chance of gaining a point tonight, Tamworth have put themselves in a class above Forest Green so far this season. Indeed, FGR manager David Hockaday has already highlighted the similarities in style between Southport and Tamworth and has warned his players to bring their ‘tin hats’ for the game this evening.

At a best priced 5/4, Tamworth cannot be ignored tonight and should be able to continue their impressive start to the season.

SUGGESTION:

Tamworth – 2pts win @ 5/4 (Bet365, Victor Chandler)

Goals Should Flow in TV Game

There are plenty of reasons to be expecting goals as Manchester United travel to Elland Road take on rivals Leeds in the Carling Cup tonight. United will of course ring the changes for the Carling Cup, but the immense depth of their squad means that they can still field a starting line-up that many teams in the Premiership would relish. In real terms, that means that both Michael Owen and Dimitar Berbatov may be in line for a chance to start, alongside more youngsters who will be desperate to impress Sir Alex. Indeed, the fantastic start that the Champions have made to the new season will only increase the importance of this game for those players that are chosen to play, as competition for places is extremely fierce at the club and no chance to impress can be turned down or taken for granted.

Leeds, meanwhile, will be desperate to channel the spirit of two years ago when they travelled to Old Trafford to win 1-0 in the third round of the FA Cup. That fact may ensure that Sir Alex is able to drill his squad into line, with the evidence clear that Leeds will never take it easy against their bitter rivals. However, this match will not define Leeds’ season whether they win or lose, and Simon Grayson will already have one and a half eyes on their Friday night trip to Brighton. That is not to say that this game is of little importance to Leeds, but some element of squad rotation may be forced upon the home side if there are any niggles picked up or if the game heads towards extra-time.

The bookmakers are hardly taking any chances on Manchester United and that is no surprise given their fiery start to the season. However, 4/7 on the visitors winning is just too short for an outlay on any away team in the Carling Cup, especially in the light of the feelings between these two clubs. Of more interest are goals bets, given that Leeds have yet to keep a clean sheet this season and have themselves only failed to score in one game. Only one Leeds game this season has had less than three goals, and five times games involving Leeds have had four goals or more. Their last Carling Cup home game saw Leeds defeat Bradford 3-2, while they were 2-1 winners away at Doncaster in another Yorkshire derby.

Manchester United have of course been in the goals themselves plenty this season. Their 8-2 hammering of Arsenal will go into folk lore, but a 5-0 win at Bolton was itself quite special. However, given the probable change of line-up for tonight, of more relevance may be United’s exploits in the Carling Cup last season. All three games in which United played saw at least four goals, as they won 5-2 at Scunthorpe, beat Wolves 3-2 and lost 4-0 at West Ham. There is no reason not to expect goals tonight, and with that in mind, take the line above the normal overs and expect over 3.5 goals at Elland Road.

Suggestion:

Leeds United v Manchester United: 1pt Over 3.5 goals @ 6/5 (Ladbrokes) (2.38 on Betfair)

Cagey Encounter Expected

Dean Holdsworth has called on Aldershot fans to create a cup-final atmosphere tonight ahead of the visit of Rochdale in the Carling Cup. Since reforming, Aldershot have never reached this stage of the competition and the prospect of a place in the last 16 has certainly captured the minds of many at the club. It may be an ever more sweet achievement for Aldershot if they achieve it considering their difficult road to this stage – the ‘shots came back from 1-0 down to win at West Ham, before overcoming Carlisle 2-0 at home in round two.

The home side have no injury or suspension concerns and should be able to field a full strength line-up that Holdsworth is still hoping to push further. Since winning at West Ham in round one, Aldershot have not been beaten. On that run, they have secured two more home wins and a home draw, while they have secured six points from six in their last two matches – a 2-0 win at Hereford followed by a 1-0 win at Bristol Rovers. This should be keeping morale very high and with confidence brimming the hosts will present a real challenge tonight.

As for Rochdale, who are making the long journey south, they come into the contest on the back of frustrating 3-2 home loss against Charlton in a game where they will have been frustrated not to earn at least a point. However, while they may not have claimed the scalp of the ‘big boys’ in their own division, ‘dale have their own Carling Cup scalp to rival that of Aldershot’s. After an extra time win at home against Chesterfield in round one, Rochdale were 2-0 winners at QPR in round two, although Neil Warnock was publically hardly disappointed to lose that particular contest. Despite some disappointing away form in the league (losing at Sheffield Wednesday, Stevenage and Oldham), Rochdale appeared to strike a better vain of form when winning 4-2 at rivals Bury and defeating Scunthorpe 1-0 at Spotland. The performance against Charlton should keep belief around the club that they have turned a corner, and the only change forced upon the visitors tonight is in goal as on-loan Blackburn goalkeeper Jake Keane will be replaced by David Lucas.

As an away fan when Rushden and Diamonds made it to the Setanta Shield Final against Aldershot at the Recreation Ground, I can vouch first hand for the kind of ‘cup final’ atmosphere that Rochdale will face tonight. However, their 4-2 win at Bury has shown that this squad can cope with big atmospheres, and both of these sides have already defeated higher league opposition away from home in the Carling Cup this season. However, the prize of a fourth round place is a serious one for both clubs given their relative stature, and ultimately that fact and the atmosphere may lead to a tight contest.

Aldershot have not had more than 2 goals in a game since their victory at West Ham and only twice all season, neither of those games being at home. That run should be extended tonight, and unders is certainly the value call in this contest.

SUGGESTION:

Aldershot v Rochdale: 1pt UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ Evens (William Hill and various)

Changes aplenty for Dons

There are plenty of fascinating Carling Cup ties tonight and we begin with the matchup at Turf Moor.  MK Dons, 4^th placed in League One, head to Burnley with their minds focussed on another cup scalp after their demolition of Norwich in the last round. Milton Keynes stunned their Premiership opponents with a 4-0 away win, and have won five of their six away games this season. Their only loss came in their last away trip when they defeated 3-1 by Sheffield Wednesday.

However, manager Karl Robinson will likely have to field a side that is much changed tonight as he travels to Turf Moor with a number of reserves and academy players expected to feature. Defender Gary MacKenzie is suspended after what Robinson described as a “stupid” off the ball sending off against Bournemouth on Saturday as the Dons were held to a 1-1 draw at home.

As for Eddie Howe’s Burnley, they will be looking to regain some form after two consecutive losses in the Championship. Burnley were beaten 2-1 at Peterborough on Saturday, a result that came on the heels of a 2-0 home defeat against Middlesbrough. Indeed, Burnley’s home form has hardly been stellar this season – they have won just two of five home league games, and both of those were extra time successes against lower league opposition (6-3 v Burton Albion, 3-2 v Barnet). Burnley have also failed to keep a single clean sheet this season, but Howe has maintained that performances have been better than results have suggested and is keen to make the Carling Cup a catalyst to more success in the league.

Even money on a home win would not appeal in the slightest if you take the form of these two sides this season at face value. However, given the changes to the MK Dons side that have been forced upon Karl Robinson for tonight, Burnley should have enough to see off their high-flying League One opponents. Despite failing to record 90 minute victories against League Two opposition at home twice already this season, reaching the 4^th round will provide further motivation for Burnley than may have been present in those earlier round contests, and with the need to claim a first home win in normal time on the minds of individuals at the club, this will likely be the right night to achieve that feet.

Suggestion:

BURNLEY 1pt win @ Evens (William Hill and various)

Ipswich Town 3-0 Coventry City

A little bit of regret this morning that I do not go with the strong intuitive position I held in favour of Ipswich last night, as they began to show some of their undoubted class en route to a 3-0 victory against Coventry City.

The result was never really in doubt, especially after two goals in the opening fifteen minutes. Overs backers were no doubt delighted when Jason Scotland made it 3-0 with just over 20 minutes remaining, but unfortunately none of the three on target attempts from the visitors found the back of the net.

Check back later today for Carling Cup selections for matches tonight.

Summary of Bets:

One Loser: Ipswich v Coventry – ‘Both teams to score’ @ 8/11 (0.5pts)

TOTAL LOSS: 0.5 points
TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 4.06 points

Monday Night Goals...

After what has seemed like an eternity of offline existence (thanks a lot Sky!) the blog is finally able to return for good this evening, and we return to live Championship football on Sky Sports.

At the beginning of the new season, many were already writing off the chances of Coventry City surviving in their battle against relegation this season. With a sustained lack of investment worrying even the most die-hard ‘sky blues’ fan, four consecutive defeats to begin the season (including a 3-1 defeat at League One side Bury in the Carling Cup) did nothing to instil any sense of renewed optimism.

However, since a 2-1 defeat at Crystal Palace on the 16^th of August (where Coventry took a 1-0 lead into stoppage time), Andy Thorn’s side have been unbeaten in three Championship matches, including an away draw at Middlesbrough and an impressive 2-0 home victory against Derby County.

The chances of this recent upturn in form being sustained through the contest tonight have been bolstered by the (BBC reported) news that Clive Platt and Gary McSheffrey both may return to the squad, while recent signing from Norwich Cody McDonald should be available to make his second start for the club, if Thorn opts to start him over Freddy Eastwood.

If Coventry were tipped as relegation certainties, many more pre-season comments were centred on the possibility of Ipswich being Championship dark-horses this season. However, the Tractor Boys start has been far more Eeyore than Shergar. With Paul Jewell at the helm, and signings such as Jimmy Bullard, Keith Andrews and Lee Bowyer, it is easy to see why many expected Ipswich to be pushing at the top end of the table. However, despite a 3-0 win at Bristol City on the opening day of the season, Ipswich find themselves just one point (6) and one place (17^th) above their rivals tonight. Defensively, Ipswich have provided much more in the way of feast rather than famine. Their 3-0 win in Bristol was the only game this season where they have kept a clean sheet, and losing 7-1 at Peterborough and 5-2 at Southampton have contributed heavily the worst defensive record in the division.

Town lost 2-0 last time out at Blackpool, and while their last home game saw them pick up a 2-1 victory against Leeds, that result was flattered by not only a stoppage time winner, but also by the fact that Leeds were reduced to 10 men when leading 1-0 on 50 minutes.

All in all, this is a very tough match from a betting perspective. Coventry are more than likely enjoying a decent run rather than having turned a major corner in terms of their future fortunes, a run that is likely to end soon. However, the evidence of the Sky cameras this season has been clear – a 2-0 Coventry win over Derby and a 7-1 humiliation for Ipswich at Peterborough. However, Paul Jewell is the perfect manager to get a response from his players and to use their previous television capitulation as motivation for a better performance tonight, and the Tractor Boys did display something of a fighting spirit in turning around the game against Leeds last time out at Portman Road.

In the end, while the gut says that Ipswich could well be value at 11/10 to record the home win, the performances have not been there for the hosts, meaning that now may not be the time to put money down on a change of fortunes. Instead, ‘both teams to score’ looks like the most solid wager for a small interest with the attacking qualities of both sides – Coventry have scored on every away trip this season – and the fragile home defence. Expect a nervy game with all three results being live and on the table.

Suggestion:

0.5pts ‘Both Teams to Score’ @ 8/11 (@ Boyle, Coral and Ladbrokes)

Temporarily Offline

Still offline due to house move and problems with internet - hoping to be back online next week.

Many thanks

Thursday Result

No goals at Hillsborough as Sheffield Wednesday and Blackpool head into extra-time in a deadlock. That, of course, spells doom for the over 2.5 goals selection from earlier. Still, it was perhaps a speculative half a point offering for the game and does not hit the overall profit gained so far too badly. Clearly, the Megson affect may have been bigger than planned!*



*I must note I did not watch the game! I was busy watching Wellingborough Whitworths defeat AFC Rushden & Diamonds 3-0 in a pre-season friendly. After suffering defeat via the same scoreline on Saturday, this was an improved Diamonds performance. 2-0 down at half-time to two excellent finishes, Diamonds had much more of the play in the second half, hitting the post and forcing a good save from the home goalkeeper. The third Whitworths goal came from virtually the last kick of the match and was something of a fluke.

Summary of BetsOne loser: Sheffield Wednesday v Blackpool - Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11 (0.5 pts)

TOTAL LOSS: 0.5 points
TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 4.56 points

Sheffield Wednesday v Blackpool

You know that the football season is back in full-swing when there is a live contest on the Sky Sports Thursday night schedule, and the cameras held to Hillsborough tonight in the anticipation of goals between Sheffield Wednesday and Blackpool.

The lineups of both teams will be much changed from their respective season openers at the weekend, which makes the game a very tricky prospect from a betting point of view. Blackpool are without goalkeeper Matt Gilks, as well as Stephen Crainey and Craig Cathcart who played in the international games yesterday. Sheffield Wednesday meanwhile are unlikely to give a debut to new signing Chris O'Grady, but striker Danny Uchechi could start after completing a loan move to the club yesterday. (*editorial note - Danny Uchechi was very good for Rushden and Diamonds on Football Manager...*)

The best indication to Blackpool's approach could come from their efforts under Holloway in this competition over the last two seasons. A 4-3 extra-time loss to Milton Keynes last season certainly indicates that Holloway's 'go for goals' approach carries over to the League Cup, and in the season before that Blackpool progressed to round three in games that went over 2.5 goals on all three occasions (2-1 win at Crewe, 4-1 win v Wigan and 4-3 loss at Stoke).

Sheffield Wednesday were not exactly prolific in a 1-0 win over Bury at home in the first round last season, and with no O'Grady the Owls will lineup without their preferred strikeforce. The 2-0 win over Rochdale would have pleased Megson, whose defensive approach is perhaps the antithesis of Holloway, in that the Owls held on for a clean sheet. However, keeping Blackpool out may not be so easy tonight.

A difficult call, and with a host of changes none of the prices appeal on the outright markets. 10/11 on over 2.5 goals is perhaps a little slim, but for those looking for a bet tonight, it is never a bad idea to have goals on your side in a Blackpool match, especially in the League Cup where extra-time will want to be avoided if possible.

SUGGESTION:

Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11 @ Coral (0.5pts)

Wednesday Review

Oxford and Cardiff have not even reached half time, but the earlier tip is already weighed in. Both teams have scored as it is now 1-1, Simon Clist equalising for Oxford after the visitors took the lead.

Summary of Bets

One winner: Oxford United v Cardiff City - Both teams to score (1-1 at time of post) @ 5/6

TOTAL PROFIT: .83 points based on 1pt stake

TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 5.06 points

Oxford v Cardiff

Only one match in the Carling Cup tonight as a result of the postponment of the game in Bristol, and the match between Oxford United and Cardiff City at the Kassam Stadium is a tough one to call.

Both teams started the season with games that finished 1-0, but while Cardiff were causing a minor upset thanks to a late Kenny Miller goal against West Ham, Oxford suffered an opening day defeat against Rotherham up in Yorkshire. Back at home for the first competitive game of the season, Oxford should lineup with much the same side, possibly with the addition of Lewis Guy, signed on loan from Milton Keynes.

Cardiff meanwhile are set to be much changed as a result of the internationals taking place this week. Sunday's hero Kenny Miller is away with Scotland, while the influential Rob Earnshaw and Kevin McNaughton will also be missing. However, Stephen McPhail may return from injury and Gestede, who came of the bench on Sunday, may be in for start.

Several Championship sides felt the pain of losing players to international duty last night, none more so than Hull who were tipped here and lost 2-0 at home to Macclesfield. With that in mind, even at a best price 5/4, backing Cardiff does not appeal against an Oxford United side that have the talent to make real progress in League 2. In James Contestable and Lewis Guy the U's have the prowess to cause the visitors plenty of problems, but the 5/2 about the hosts also seems about right and does not scream value.

In the end, even with Miller and Earnshaw missing for Cardiff, the best bet on offer looks to be 'Both to score' at a seemingly generous 5/6 at Stan James. Oxford have the capability to score as mentioned above, while Cardiff themselves will expect to get on the scoresheet against the lower opposition. In a game where all three results look correctly priced up, it seems best to sit back and cheer for goals on this occassion.

Suggestion:

1pt 'Both teams to score' @ 5/6 @ Stan James

Tuesday Review

Summary of Bets:

Two wins - Accrington Stanley 0-2 Scunthorpe United (7/5)

                  Derby County 2-3 Shrewsbury Town (5/1)


Two losses - Hull City (-1) 0-2 Macclesfield Town

                     Stevenage 2-2 Peterborough United

Overall, a very pleasing night! Scunthorpe did the job in the second half at Accrington, but the stars were certainly Shrewsbury who delivered at 5/1. Even those of us who fancied them to do well would have been shocked by their early 3-0 lead, and despite something of a Derby fightback, Shrewsbury held on for the 3-2 win.

Peterborough threw away two leads at Stevenage to cost a success there, but my one blunder was Hull City. I clearly under-estimated the affect of losing key players to international duty and over-estimated their desire to make up for their opening night home defeat against Blackpool.

Elsewhere, I was secretly pleased to see Barnsley, Nottingham Forest and Portsmouth fail to deliver at short-odds and vindicate my avoidance policy, while Bury delivered a 3-1 win against Coventry in a game where some may have been tempted in by a respectable price on the home win.

TOTAL PROFIT: 6.4 points based on 1pt level stakes across all selections

TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 4.23 points

Tuesday Selections

Due the fact that I am moving house this week, there has been not a great deal of time for the reasoning behind these selections - but here are the Tuesday night Carling Cup suggestions.

Accrington Stanley v SCUNTHORPE @ 7/5 @ VC, Sportingbet, Coral, 32Red

Scunthorpe have an awful record in the League Cup, losing 22 of 24 away ties and finishing with elimination in the first round in 12 of the last 18 seasons. However, Scunthorpe played very well by all accounts against Wycombe on Saturday en route to a 1-1 draw, while Accrington were held at home against Aldershot. With similar lineups expected to take to the field for both sides tonight, Scunthorpe are a touch of value at 7/5 to outshine their League 2 opponents.

Derby County v SHREWSBURY @ 5/1 @ Stan James

Another two teams that have a record in this competition that hardly inspires, but Shrewsbury can add to Derby's failures against League 2 opposition with an upset at Pride Park. Shrewsbury were denied victory over Plymouth by a 90th minute goal on Saturday, but at 5/1 they represent value in this encounter.

Stevenage v PETERBOROUGH @ 6/4 @ various

Stevenage held Exeter at the Lamex Stadium (Broadhall Way) on Saturday, but they should be outclassed by Peterborough even if Darren Ferguson chooses to rotate some of his squad. Posh's attacking style should see them through without too much fuss against Graham Westley's physical side.

HULL CITY -1 v Macclesfield @ 5/7 @ Bodog

The only trustwothy short-priced handicap bet of the night should be Hull against Macclefield of League 2. Hull were undeservedly booed after an excellent display by Blackpool in their 1-0 win on Friday night, and will be desperate to get back into a winning mode tonight in front of their own fans. Macclesfield have lost 11 of 12 twelve away matches in this competition, and while Hull are without six players on international duty, Macclesfield's won injury problems temper the possible affect of squad changes.

AFC Diamonds Play First Match

On an aside to the betting, I was lucky enough to watch a very mini piece of football history today as AFC RUSHDEN AND DIAMONDS took to the field for the first time against Raunds Town reserves at Kiln Park in Raunds – the ground that both teams will share this season.
The tale of the quick demise of Rushden from the Conference has been well told elsewhere on the internet, not to mention the added salt in the wounds situation of bitter rivals Kettering Town taking up residence at the Diamonds Nene Park home. However, today was not about bitterness or sadness, it was about the joy of watching the brand new phoenix club take to the field for the first time.

The 3-0 scoreline favoured Raunds at the end, but it was almost incidental to the day as the dedicated hard work of a few supporters resulted in the presence of a Diamonds team once again kicking a ball in anger – or at least with the desire to score. Rushden will field only an U18’s team this season, with a view to a senior team entering the United Counties League next season, but the more than 200 fans in attendance on this Saturday were just proud to have a club to support once more.

Diamonds host an open fans meeting at Raunds on Tuesday evening, with their next friendly against Thrapston Town, at Wellingborough Whitworths, this Thursday. I’m sure news of these events will reach this blog!


Official afcdiamonds website

Rushden and Diamonds Fans Forum

Saturday Review

The first Saturday of the season was certainly something of a thriller, with a host of interesting storylines and new information to put in the notebook. In particular:

·         NOTTINGHAM FOREST are clearly still a work in progress as many people predicted after their 0-0 draw at home to Barnsley.

·         All the Championship new boys – BRIGHTON, SOUTHAMPTON and PETERBOROUGH – were victorious, but some of the football played by the Saints was sublime, and they will be a team that can claim many scalps, especially at home.

·         The game at Ashton Gate may reveal a lot about the prospects for both Ipswich and Bristol City, or at least one of them. Michael Chopra could prove to be a fantastic signing for the Tractor Boys and he could have made no better start today for Paul Jewell.

Obviously, drawing conclusions from one game would be quite the opposite of sensible, but still, football is back and that is something that provides genuine topics for conversation that don’t necessarily revolve around the theoretical.

SUMMARY OF BETS:

One win – Brentford 2-0 Yeovil

One no bet – Stevenage 0-0 Exeter

Three losses – Walsall 1-0 Leyton Orient
                         
                          Shrewsbury 1-1 Plymouth (90^th minute heartbreak!)

                          Preston 2-4 Colchester

TOTAL LOSS: 2.17pts based on 1pt level stakes across all matches as suggested

Saturday Selections

The first weekend of the new football league season is an absolute minefield – even more so than the betting on some well researched friendlies and Europa League ties that have been the fodder for many during the last weeks. Nearly all of the sides are unknown quantities to at least some degree and gaining a reliable edge over the oddsmakers at this stage is a tough proposition.

However, this being a betting blog it would be a pretty poor effort not to have a go, and in that spirit there are a few teams whose ante-post value could also point towards some early season profit. Even so, stakes probably ought to be small at this time of year while the sun is still shining and no-one is worried whether the game at Macclesfield will it make it past the pitch inspection.

Links to previews are able for three of the five selections below. The reasoning for the remaining two:

Exeter and Leyton Orient both have excellent draw no bet claims, as they travel away to teams who are expected to be at the bottom end of League One. For all of the good feeling around Stevenage, their promotion to League One came in spite of a poor home record verses the top sides in League 2 last season. Further, their opening match in the Football League a season ago – with all of its hype and expectation – saw them have to come from behind to scrape a 2-2 draw with lowly Macclesfield. A feel good factor will not be enough to push Stevenage over the line against Exeter City.

Leyton Orient, meanwhile, look very much like a dark horse playoff contender on paper with excellent manager Russell Slade at the helm and a selection of summer signings that include Jamie Cureton and Marc Laird. After only just missing out on the playoffs, Orient are value to steal an opening day win against a Walsall side who look destined for a finish at the lower end of the league (even if they should improve on their relegation form of a year ago).

SUGGESTIONS:

BRENTFORD v Yeovil – 1pt @ 5/6 @ Blue Square, 888 Sport and Coral

PRESTON NORTH END v Colchester – 1pt @ 5/6 @ Bet365

DRAW NO BET – Stevenage v EXETER – 1pt @ 6/4 @ Bet365 and William Hill

DRAW NO BET – Walsall v LEYTON ORIENT – 1pt @ Evs @ Paddy Power, Skybet and Unibet

SHREWSBURY v Plymouth – 1pt @ 10/11 @ various (11/12 @ 32Red)

Results will be posted by close of Saturday - all comments welcome!