Saturday Review

After a rough week, back to the world of profit this evening, albeit modest. Review below:

Aldershot 0-1 CRAWLEY TOWN : Only one goal at the Rec on the day that Aldershot found out that they would host Manchester United in the Carling Cup 4th Round. Doughty with the only goal on 64 minutes to secure the points for Steve Evans' side.

Portsmouth 1-0 BLACKPOOL (DNB) : Oh dear! Heading for the 'no bet' element of this tip when with virtually the final kick of the contest Portsmouth snatched a winner. 94th minute heartbreak after a level contest.

Wigan Athletic 1-2 SPURS : Comfortable enough for Spurs, although they perhaps should have put the home side away by more than a one goal margain. Early goals from Bale and Van der Vaart enough to grab three points.

Wigan Athletic 1-2 SPURS : Over 2.5 goals secured here as well when Diame pulled one back for Wigan on 50 minutes.

Summary of Bets:

Three Winners: Spurs win 1pt @ 5/6

                        Wigan v Spurs Over 2.5 goals 1pt @ 10/11

                        Crawley win 1pt @ 7/5

One loser: Blackpool DNB 1pt @ 23/17

Profit for day = 2.14 points

Total running loss for season = 0.07 points

Saturday Selections

Four bets for this Saturday afternoon then as I look to recover from the frustrating Brighton v Leeds contest from last night.

Aldershot v CRAWLEY TOWN (1pt win @ 7/5)

Portsmouth v BLACKPOOL (DNB) (1pt @ 23/17)

Wigan Athletic v SPURS (1pt win @ 5/6)

Wigan Athletic v Spurs Over 2.5 goals (1pt @ 10/11)

Check back later for a review, and feel free to add comments to disagree!

Aldershot v Crawley Tip

Aldershot head into their game with Crawley this afternoon in a rich run of form, but they may well come back to Earth with a bump when they face the rich men of League Two.

The ‘shots made it through to the fourth round of the Carling Cup for the first time in their history when they defeated Rochdale 2-1at home in midweek, with ex-Rushden and Diamonds man Michael Rankine amongst the goals. That victory has made it six wins from eight for Aldershot in all competitions, a run that includes two draws. The hosts have not lost since a 2-0 defeat at Morecambe over a month ago, a defeat that followed consecutive home reverses against Torquay and Northampton (both 1-0).

Defeat at home was avoided against the other newly promoted side, AFC Wimbledon, only thanks to a 95^th minute leveller however, and the 2-0 win at strugglers Hereford has been Aldershot’s only win by more than the odd goal. That, of course, will not worry manager Dean Holdsworth too much if his side keep winning, but Crawley could be their stiffest league test of the season.

As for Steve Evans’ Sussex side, adapting to life in League Two has been slightly more bumpy than many expected. After three wins from four to kick start their campaign (including conceding a 90^th minute leveller at Port Vale on the opening day), Crawley hit the rocks with a 3-1 defeat at Cheltenham. Since then, they defeated Bristol Rovers 4-1 at home, before being demolished 6-0 at Morecambe. A 3-0 home defeat against Swindon did little to restore confidence, but a much better second half display saw Crawley overturn a 1-0 home deficit against Bradford last Saturday, en route to a 3-1 win. Doubters will point to the fact that Crawley have lost four in a row on the road, and only won one of six encounters away from home this season (a solid enough 3-1 win at Torquay), but those facts do include defeats at Crystal Palace (Carling Cup) and Southend (JPT) to bolster their appearance.

With Steve Evans beginning to make changes during the week – John Dempster being loaned out to K*ttering - the Crawley players will be well aware that there can be no passengers if they want to stay with the club, and ultimately their recent run should turn out to be a minor blip in form. That makes the 7/5 available on a win this afternoon very appealing and a price that should not be turned down.

Suggestion:

Crawley WIN 1pt @ 7/5 (Stan James and Ladbrokes)

Tuesday Results

Oh dear! Not quite the night that I had planned, but not a complete disaster either...

BURNLEY 2-1 MK Dons - First up is the positive result of the night, as Burnley just about delivered the win at Evens. They were hardly convincing however, being 1-0 down early on and only striking home the winning goal in the 89th minute.

Aldershot 2-1 Rochdale (Under 2.5) -The goals in this one came each time an unders backer would just about start to feel confident. Rochdale opened the scoring just prior to half-time, with Aldershot equalising immediately after the break. Defeat for both the visitors and the selection came in the 78th minute as Aldershot advanced to the Fourth Round for the first time in their history.

Leeds 0-3 Manchester United (Over 3.5) - Defeat as an overs backer this time, again by just one goal, in what I think is a justifiably unlucky outcome. Man Utd were 3-0 up before half-time as Michael Owen bagged a brace and Ryan Giggs put the outcome beyond reasonable doubt. However, no goals came at all in the second half, Leeds spurning a great one-on-one chance in the final seconds to leave the total goals at three.

TAMWORTH 0-1 Forest Green Rovers - The nap selection of the night was ironically the tip that was furthest from the mark. Forest Green maintained their excellent start to the season away from home (still unbeaten) thanks to an early own-goal when Paul Green deflected the ball into his own net. Tamworth's first home defeat of the year came despite them hitting the bar in the second half.


Summary of Bets


One winner: BURNLEY v MK Dons 1pt at Evs

Three losers: TAMWORTH v Forest Green Rovers 2pts @ 5/4
                     Aldershot v Rochdale Under 2.5 1pt @ Evs
                     Leeds v Man Utd Over 3.5 1pt @ 6/5

Total Loss: 3 points


TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 1.06 points

Check back later today for the selections for matches this evening.

Tuesday Selections

Four games with selections tonight as the Carling Cup and Blue Square Premier take the spotlight on the domestic scene.

BURNLEY (1pt) v MK Dons

UNDER 2.5 (1pt) Aldershot v Rochdale

OVER 3.5 (1pt) Leeds v Man Utd

TAMWORTH (2pts) v Forest Green

An outlay of 5pts on the night, check back this evening for a review of the selections.

Cagey Encounter Expected

Dean Holdsworth has called on Aldershot fans to create a cup-final atmosphere tonight ahead of the visit of Rochdale in the Carling Cup. Since reforming, Aldershot have never reached this stage of the competition and the prospect of a place in the last 16 has certainly captured the minds of many at the club. It may be an ever more sweet achievement for Aldershot if they achieve it considering their difficult road to this stage – the ‘shots came back from 1-0 down to win at West Ham, before overcoming Carlisle 2-0 at home in round two.

The home side have no injury or suspension concerns and should be able to field a full strength line-up that Holdsworth is still hoping to push further. Since winning at West Ham in round one, Aldershot have not been beaten. On that run, they have secured two more home wins and a home draw, while they have secured six points from six in their last two matches – a 2-0 win at Hereford followed by a 1-0 win at Bristol Rovers. This should be keeping morale very high and with confidence brimming the hosts will present a real challenge tonight.

As for Rochdale, who are making the long journey south, they come into the contest on the back of frustrating 3-2 home loss against Charlton in a game where they will have been frustrated not to earn at least a point. However, while they may not have claimed the scalp of the ‘big boys’ in their own division, ‘dale have their own Carling Cup scalp to rival that of Aldershot’s. After an extra time win at home against Chesterfield in round one, Rochdale were 2-0 winners at QPR in round two, although Neil Warnock was publically hardly disappointed to lose that particular contest. Despite some disappointing away form in the league (losing at Sheffield Wednesday, Stevenage and Oldham), Rochdale appeared to strike a better vain of form when winning 4-2 at rivals Bury and defeating Scunthorpe 1-0 at Spotland. The performance against Charlton should keep belief around the club that they have turned a corner, and the only change forced upon the visitors tonight is in goal as on-loan Blackburn goalkeeper Jake Keane will be replaced by David Lucas.

As an away fan when Rushden and Diamonds made it to the Setanta Shield Final against Aldershot at the Recreation Ground, I can vouch first hand for the kind of ‘cup final’ atmosphere that Rochdale will face tonight. However, their 4-2 win at Bury has shown that this squad can cope with big atmospheres, and both of these sides have already defeated higher league opposition away from home in the Carling Cup this season. However, the prize of a fourth round place is a serious one for both clubs given their relative stature, and ultimately that fact and the atmosphere may lead to a tight contest.

Aldershot have not had more than 2 goals in a game since their victory at West Ham and only twice all season, neither of those games being at home. That run should be extended tonight, and unders is certainly the value call in this contest.

SUGGESTION:

Aldershot v Rochdale: 1pt UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ Evens (William Hill and various)