Norwich 2-1 Sunderland

No bet was the selection last night, and Norwich proved a number of doubters wrong with a 2-1 win at Carrow Road.

Barnett opened the scoring for the hosts just after the half hour mark, a lead that was doubled from a Morrison header just after the interval. Black Cats manager Steve Bruce blamed individual errors from his key players for the defeat, which was confirmed not long after Kieran Richardson pulled a goal back on 86 minutes.

Check back later today for the tips for tonight.

Norwich v Sunderland Preview

Five games played and five points each as Sunderland head to Norwich for the Monday Night Football action on Sky Sports this evening.

However, from a betting point of view, there is no obvious edge to be found even after examining the facts and stats around the matchup. Norwich were seconds away from an impressive home win against Stoke early in the season before conceding a 94^th minute equaliser, while Paul Lambert’s side were also unfortunate not to pick up at least a point at Stamford Bridge where they created a host of chances against Chelsea. A win at Bolton last time out placed more misery onto the shoulders of the troubled Wanderers, but in their last home match, the Canaries were beaten 1-0 by West Bromwich Albion thanks to an early defensive error from Ritchie De Laet. Those stats highlight that there is not a very clear read available on the hosts yet – who have also developed a peculiar habit of conceding a penalty each time they take to the field in the Premier League this season.

As for ex-Norwich City man Steve Bruce, he is beginning to face some pressure as he brings his Sunderland side south. The reasons for the pressure, however, appear to be more based around the fear of an upcoming lack of progress rather than any problems in real life – aside from the obviously troubling 1-0 home defeat to Newcastle. Sunderland fans were saddened to see Ghanaian striker Asamoah Gyan leave before the transfer window closed and the fear of stagnation is beginning to envelope some of the supporters at the Stadium of Light. The Black Cats began the season with a very credible draw away at Liverpool, before that home loss to their bitter rivals, however. A 0-0 draw away at Swansea potentially provides some insight as to how the contest this evening may turn out, which Bruce’s side followed up with variable home performances – a 2-1 loss to Chelsea and a 4-0 demolishing of a Stoke side who may still be adapting to the legwork required when playing a tough Europa League game away in Eastern Europe a few days before returning to the domestic scene.

It is not clear, then, quite what to expect tonight – it would be foolish and a lie to pretend that I had a strong feeling about how this contest will ultimately pan out. Many may point how close Aston Villa came to win at QPR yesterday as evidence that the hosts are under-priced at 6/4 – and considering the loss to West Brom and the problems at Bolton (Norwich’s sole Premiership scalp), they may be correct in doing so. However, 11/5 on the visitors is hardly a price that jumps out, given that Sunderland’s 4-goal explosion against Stoke may have had less to do with the solving of their goal scoring problems (just two goals in five matches prior to that game) and more to do with Stoke’s European exploits.

With big questions over who may win, and a feeling that the 0-0 draw which Sunderland earned at Swansea may be a good guide for this game, the over/under prices are also prohibitive. Under 2.5 goals is a best price 4/5, which is probably the correct price for the favourite outcome.

It is not often that this blog will ever recommend a complete ‘no bet’ – after all, why would anyone bother to read a betting preview if they didn’t want some advice. However, this blog focuses more on honesty than bluffing, and in that regard there are no prices tonight that I think merit an outlay. Sunderland at 6/5 on the draw no bet market does seem to be the most interesting to those really looking to get involved – and it is the one direction that I would hesitantly point to for ‘an interest’ – but this game is best watched for future reference.

Suggestion:

NO BET

QPR 1-1 Aston Villa

Finally, some stoppage time good luck, rather than bad. QPR came back in the 93rd minute to snatch a 1-1 draw against Aston Villa, as a Richard Dunne own-goal cost Villa three points at Loftus Road.

Defeat would have been harsh on Rangers however, after they dominated the first half and fell behind to an exceedingly dubious penalty early in the second. Rangers had their own penalty shout turned down later in the half, before being reduced to ten men when Traore was sent off for a second yellow card. However, just as defeat seemed certain, Villa allowed a low ball into the box which Stephen Warnock smashed into the legs of Dunne, with the rebound leaving Shay Given helpless. It was no more than the home team deserved and was a welcome relief to those who followed the advice of this blog.

Outcome: No bet - stake returned as a result of draw

Total loss for season: 0.07 points

QPR v Aston Villa Tip

Impressive in a 0-0 home draw against Newcastle United in front of the Sky cameras earlier this season, plenty of punters will be interested in having QPR on-side in their Sunday afternoon contest against Aston Villa.

Buoyed by the signings of Joey Barton, D.J. Campbell and Shaun Wright-Phillips, QPR look capable of putting up more of a fight in the top-flight than they did at the start of the season. Their 4-0 opening day home defeat to Bolton seems a lifetime ago, and should be seen as such in betting terms. Since then, Rangers have picked up a 1-0 victory at Everton, and although they were beaten 2-0 at Wigan, they then went on to dominate against Newcastle in a 0-0 draw and stun Wolves 3-0 at Molineux.  Goals from Barton, Faulin and Campbell in the west midlands highlight the number of options Rangers are developing in their attacking game – which has kicked into another gear since the arrival of Wright-Phillips.

At the back, Rangers are also an outfit to be increasingly reckoned with. The attacking threat means that the defence have less of the ball coming at them than they did early in the campaign, and Everton, Newcastle and Wolves have all failed to find the back of Paddy Kenny’s net.

That defensive record could well be extended against an increasingly flailing Aston Villa strike-force. Both Darren Bent and Emile Heskey look set to miss out at Loftus Road thanks to injury – facts that pile much of the attacking pressure onto the shoulders of Agbonlahor. The talented young striker has found the net three times already this season in the league, but there are concerns over whether Alex McLeish can get enough goals from the rest of the team. Although Villa did score three at home to Blackburn and two at Everton, they were also shutout at Fulham and at home to Wolves, and looked poor in a 2-0 home Carling Cup defeat to Bolton during the week.

However, in Shay Given, Villa have their own top class weapon between the sticks. Given was exceptional in the 1-1 home draw against Newcastle, and has the ability to almost single-handedly affect a result with his shot-stopping. Villa will not want to rely too heavily on Given of course, but they could well be in for a long afternoon if their ‘keeper is not on top form.

All the feeling about this game then seems to point to a QPR victory and under 2.5 goals. However, Villa are certainly no mugs and possess the quality in the side to make a mockery of a 12/5 price away from home at the newly promoted Rangers. At a best price 4/6 about under 2.5 goals, the bookmakers are clearly of a similar mindset in terms of the qualities of both defences, and we should be wary of taking a price that is too short by virtue of being carried away by sentiment. That fact means that the best value may lay with QPR in the ‘draw-no-bet’ market at 4/6 – a price that takes into account the possibility of Given and the Aston Villa defence making it a frustrating afternoon for the newly confident hosts.

Suggestion:

QUEENS PARK RANGERS  v Aston Villa 1pt DNB @ 4/6 (Boylesports and Coral)

Saturday Review

After a rough week, back to the world of profit this evening, albeit modest. Review below:

Aldershot 0-1 CRAWLEY TOWN : Only one goal at the Rec on the day that Aldershot found out that they would host Manchester United in the Carling Cup 4th Round. Doughty with the only goal on 64 minutes to secure the points for Steve Evans' side.

Portsmouth 1-0 BLACKPOOL (DNB) : Oh dear! Heading for the 'no bet' element of this tip when with virtually the final kick of the contest Portsmouth snatched a winner. 94th minute heartbreak after a level contest.

Wigan Athletic 1-2 SPURS : Comfortable enough for Spurs, although they perhaps should have put the home side away by more than a one goal margain. Early goals from Bale and Van der Vaart enough to grab three points.

Wigan Athletic 1-2 SPURS : Over 2.5 goals secured here as well when Diame pulled one back for Wigan on 50 minutes.

Summary of Bets:

Three Winners: Spurs win 1pt @ 5/6

                        Wigan v Spurs Over 2.5 goals 1pt @ 10/11

                        Crawley win 1pt @ 7/5

One loser: Blackpool DNB 1pt @ 23/17

Profit for day = 2.14 points

Total running loss for season = 0.07 points

Saturday Selections

Four bets for this Saturday afternoon then as I look to recover from the frustrating Brighton v Leeds contest from last night.

Aldershot v CRAWLEY TOWN (1pt win @ 7/5)

Portsmouth v BLACKPOOL (DNB) (1pt @ 23/17)

Wigan Athletic v SPURS (1pt win @ 5/6)

Wigan Athletic v Spurs Over 2.5 goals (1pt @ 10/11)

Check back later for a review, and feel free to add comments to disagree!

Wigan v Spurs Tips

Spurs seemed to put their slow start to the season behind in their demolition of an abject looking Liverpool last Sunday, and they will head to Wigan full of confidence this week.

It was only two years ago that Spurs inflicted a club record 9-1 defeat on Wigan in a contest at White Hart Lane, but Wigan fought back last season in the matches between the two clubs – winning 1-0 against Spurs at White Hart Lane and not conceding a goal against the North London club in 180 minutes of football. However, 5/6 seems a fair price about Tottenham claiming all three points this afternoon given the impressive additions to the Spurs squad before the transfer window. Scott Parker and Emmanuel Adebayor provide the strength and finishing prowess respectively that perfectly compliment both Luka Modric and Jermaine Defoe, and their impact was clear for all to see last weekend. Even with Roman Pavlyuchenko and Niko Kranjcar missing for Spurs, their strength in depth going forward should make goals certain.

As for Wigan, the absence of Hugo Rodallega will make life especially hard for Roberto Martinez’s men. Wigan have hardly been prolific goalscorers this season, finding the net more than once only in a 2-0 home win against QPR. They come into this match on the back of three straight defeats against Everton (League), Crystal Palace (Carling Cup) and Manchester City (League) – although they are yet to lose at home in the league after that win against QPR and a 1-1 draw with Norwich.

Spurs, meanwhile, have shown that they have metal when it comes to playing on the road. The 3-0 defeat at Old Trafford was probably a fairer reflection of United’s greatness than Spurs’ shortcomings, while they destroyed Hearts 5-0 in a hostile Europa League environment and were impressive 2-0 winners at Wolves in their last away Premiership game.

In terms of a goals bet, Spurs are 3/4 in terms of going over 2.5 goals in Premiership games this year, while Wigan are 2/5. That may suggest that there is nothing too exciting about the 10/11 overs bet available at Boylesports, but with Spurs’ prevalent attacking options and Jermaine Defoe’s fantastic 10-goal record against Wigan, it is high enough to draw real interest.

Suggestions:

Spurs win 1pt @ 5/6 (various)

Over 2.5 goals 1pt @ 10/11 (Boylesports and Totesport)