Saturday Review

After a rough week, back to the world of profit this evening, albeit modest. Review below:

Aldershot 0-1 CRAWLEY TOWN : Only one goal at the Rec on the day that Aldershot found out that they would host Manchester United in the Carling Cup 4th Round. Doughty with the only goal on 64 minutes to secure the points for Steve Evans' side.

Portsmouth 1-0 BLACKPOOL (DNB) : Oh dear! Heading for the 'no bet' element of this tip when with virtually the final kick of the contest Portsmouth snatched a winner. 94th minute heartbreak after a level contest.

Wigan Athletic 1-2 SPURS : Comfortable enough for Spurs, although they perhaps should have put the home side away by more than a one goal margain. Early goals from Bale and Van der Vaart enough to grab three points.

Wigan Athletic 1-2 SPURS : Over 2.5 goals secured here as well when Diame pulled one back for Wigan on 50 minutes.

Summary of Bets:

Three Winners: Spurs win 1pt @ 5/6

                        Wigan v Spurs Over 2.5 goals 1pt @ 10/11

                        Crawley win 1pt @ 7/5

One loser: Blackpool DNB 1pt @ 23/17

Profit for day = 2.14 points

Total running loss for season = 0.07 points

Saturday Selections

Four bets for this Saturday afternoon then as I look to recover from the frustrating Brighton v Leeds contest from last night.

Aldershot v CRAWLEY TOWN (1pt win @ 7/5)

Portsmouth v BLACKPOOL (DNB) (1pt @ 23/17)

Wigan Athletic v SPURS (1pt win @ 5/6)

Wigan Athletic v Spurs Over 2.5 goals (1pt @ 10/11)

Check back later for a review, and feel free to add comments to disagree!

Aldershot v Crawley Tip

Aldershot head into their game with Crawley this afternoon in a rich run of form, but they may well come back to Earth with a bump when they face the rich men of League Two.

The ‘shots made it through to the fourth round of the Carling Cup for the first time in their history when they defeated Rochdale 2-1at home in midweek, with ex-Rushden and Diamonds man Michael Rankine amongst the goals. That victory has made it six wins from eight for Aldershot in all competitions, a run that includes two draws. The hosts have not lost since a 2-0 defeat at Morecambe over a month ago, a defeat that followed consecutive home reverses against Torquay and Northampton (both 1-0).

Defeat at home was avoided against the other newly promoted side, AFC Wimbledon, only thanks to a 95^th minute leveller however, and the 2-0 win at strugglers Hereford has been Aldershot’s only win by more than the odd goal. That, of course, will not worry manager Dean Holdsworth too much if his side keep winning, but Crawley could be their stiffest league test of the season.

As for Steve Evans’ Sussex side, adapting to life in League Two has been slightly more bumpy than many expected. After three wins from four to kick start their campaign (including conceding a 90^th minute leveller at Port Vale on the opening day), Crawley hit the rocks with a 3-1 defeat at Cheltenham. Since then, they defeated Bristol Rovers 4-1 at home, before being demolished 6-0 at Morecambe. A 3-0 home defeat against Swindon did little to restore confidence, but a much better second half display saw Crawley overturn a 1-0 home deficit against Bradford last Saturday, en route to a 3-1 win. Doubters will point to the fact that Crawley have lost four in a row on the road, and only won one of six encounters away from home this season (a solid enough 3-1 win at Torquay), but those facts do include defeats at Crystal Palace (Carling Cup) and Southend (JPT) to bolster their appearance.

With Steve Evans beginning to make changes during the week – John Dempster being loaned out to K*ttering - the Crawley players will be well aware that there can be no passengers if they want to stay with the club, and ultimately their recent run should turn out to be a minor blip in form. That makes the 7/5 available on a win this afternoon very appealing and a price that should not be turned down.

Suggestion:

Crawley WIN 1pt @ 7/5 (Stan James and Ladbrokes)

Saturday Selections

The first weekend of the new football league season is an absolute minefield – even more so than the betting on some well researched friendlies and Europa League ties that have been the fodder for many during the last weeks. Nearly all of the sides are unknown quantities to at least some degree and gaining a reliable edge over the oddsmakers at this stage is a tough proposition.

However, this being a betting blog it would be a pretty poor effort not to have a go, and in that spirit there are a few teams whose ante-post value could also point towards some early season profit. Even so, stakes probably ought to be small at this time of year while the sun is still shining and no-one is worried whether the game at Macclesfield will it make it past the pitch inspection.

Links to previews are able for three of the five selections below. The reasoning for the remaining two:

Exeter and Leyton Orient both have excellent draw no bet claims, as they travel away to teams who are expected to be at the bottom end of League One. For all of the good feeling around Stevenage, their promotion to League One came in spite of a poor home record verses the top sides in League 2 last season. Further, their opening match in the Football League a season ago – with all of its hype and expectation – saw them have to come from behind to scrape a 2-2 draw with lowly Macclesfield. A feel good factor will not be enough to push Stevenage over the line against Exeter City.

Leyton Orient, meanwhile, look very much like a dark horse playoff contender on paper with excellent manager Russell Slade at the helm and a selection of summer signings that include Jamie Cureton and Marc Laird. After only just missing out on the playoffs, Orient are value to steal an opening day win against a Walsall side who look destined for a finish at the lower end of the league (even if they should improve on their relegation form of a year ago).

SUGGESTIONS:

BRENTFORD v Yeovil – 1pt @ 5/6 @ Blue Square, 888 Sport and Coral

PRESTON NORTH END v Colchester – 1pt @ 5/6 @ Bet365

DRAW NO BET – Stevenage v EXETER – 1pt @ 6/4 @ Bet365 and William Hill

DRAW NO BET – Walsall v LEYTON ORIENT – 1pt @ Evs @ Paddy Power, Skybet and Unibet

SHREWSBURY v Plymouth – 1pt @ 10/11 @ various (11/12 @ 32Red)

Results will be posted by close of Saturday - all comments welcome!