Saturday Review

After a rough week, back to the world of profit this evening, albeit modest. Review below:

Aldershot 0-1 CRAWLEY TOWN : Only one goal at the Rec on the day that Aldershot found out that they would host Manchester United in the Carling Cup 4th Round. Doughty with the only goal on 64 minutes to secure the points for Steve Evans' side.

Portsmouth 1-0 BLACKPOOL (DNB) : Oh dear! Heading for the 'no bet' element of this tip when with virtually the final kick of the contest Portsmouth snatched a winner. 94th minute heartbreak after a level contest.

Wigan Athletic 1-2 SPURS : Comfortable enough for Spurs, although they perhaps should have put the home side away by more than a one goal margain. Early goals from Bale and Van der Vaart enough to grab three points.

Wigan Athletic 1-2 SPURS : Over 2.5 goals secured here as well when Diame pulled one back for Wigan on 50 minutes.

Summary of Bets:

Three Winners: Spurs win 1pt @ 5/6

                        Wigan v Spurs Over 2.5 goals 1pt @ 10/11

                        Crawley win 1pt @ 7/5

One loser: Blackpool DNB 1pt @ 23/17

Profit for day = 2.14 points

Total running loss for season = 0.07 points

Saturday Selections

Four bets for this Saturday afternoon then as I look to recover from the frustrating Brighton v Leeds contest from last night.

Aldershot v CRAWLEY TOWN (1pt win @ 7/5)

Portsmouth v BLACKPOOL (DNB) (1pt @ 23/17)

Wigan Athletic v SPURS (1pt win @ 5/6)

Wigan Athletic v Spurs Over 2.5 goals (1pt @ 10/11)

Check back later for a review, and feel free to add comments to disagree!

Portsmouth v Blackpool Tip

Regular readers of this blog will know the high regard inwhich I hold Blackpool as a team to follow in the Championship this season. Once again, they are the subject of another selection as they head to the south coast to face Portsmouth this afternoon.

Ian Holloway’s troops are in the midst of a four game unbeaten run in the league, and have only been beaten once all season (excluding a penalty shootout defeat at Sheffield Wednesday in the Carling Cup) – when Derby County claimed a 1-0 win at Bloomfield Road. Hull (away), Peterborough (home)and Ipswich (home) have all failed to claim a point against Blackpool, while Crystal Palace (away), Cardiff (home) and Brighton (away) have all been held to a draw. Veteran striker Kevin Phillips has already bagged five league goals this campaign and will once again pose a real danger to the Portsmouth rearguard.

As for Portsmouth, that defence has kept two clean-sheets this season against Reading (home) and Bristol City (away), and has only conceded more than a single goal on two occasions (Middlesbrough away when the score was 2-2, and a dramatic 4-3 loss at West Ham). Of more concern for home supporters may well be the clubs lack of discipline, with the sending off in consecutive games of Liam Lawrence and Luke Varney. Lawrence will return today, but Varney misses out, and Portsmouth also had five players booked in games against Brighton and Middlesbrough.

This could well be another low scoring encounter at Fratton Park – in four league and home matches this season from Portsmouth there have been just five total goals. But the value lays with the visitors at 23/17 in draw-no-bet market. Portsmouth may have just enough to stifle the Blackpool attack, but missing Luke Varney will not help their attacking prospects and if anyone should come out on top, it will most likely be the visitors.

Suggestion:

Blackpool Draw-No-Bet 1pt @ 23/17 (bwin)

Thursday Result

No goals at Hillsborough as Sheffield Wednesday and Blackpool head into extra-time in a deadlock. That, of course, spells doom for the over 2.5 goals selection from earlier. Still, it was perhaps a speculative half a point offering for the game and does not hit the overall profit gained so far too badly. Clearly, the Megson affect may have been bigger than planned!*



*I must note I did not watch the game! I was busy watching Wellingborough Whitworths defeat AFC Rushden & Diamonds 3-0 in a pre-season friendly. After suffering defeat via the same scoreline on Saturday, this was an improved Diamonds performance. 2-0 down at half-time to two excellent finishes, Diamonds had much more of the play in the second half, hitting the post and forcing a good save from the home goalkeeper. The third Whitworths goal came from virtually the last kick of the match and was something of a fluke.

Summary of BetsOne loser: Sheffield Wednesday v Blackpool - Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11 (0.5 pts)

TOTAL LOSS: 0.5 points
TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 4.56 points

Sheffield Wednesday v Blackpool

You know that the football season is back in full-swing when there is a live contest on the Sky Sports Thursday night schedule, and the cameras held to Hillsborough tonight in the anticipation of goals between Sheffield Wednesday and Blackpool.

The lineups of both teams will be much changed from their respective season openers at the weekend, which makes the game a very tricky prospect from a betting point of view. Blackpool are without goalkeeper Matt Gilks, as well as Stephen Crainey and Craig Cathcart who played in the international games yesterday. Sheffield Wednesday meanwhile are unlikely to give a debut to new signing Chris O'Grady, but striker Danny Uchechi could start after completing a loan move to the club yesterday. (*editorial note - Danny Uchechi was very good for Rushden and Diamonds on Football Manager...*)

The best indication to Blackpool's approach could come from their efforts under Holloway in this competition over the last two seasons. A 4-3 extra-time loss to Milton Keynes last season certainly indicates that Holloway's 'go for goals' approach carries over to the League Cup, and in the season before that Blackpool progressed to round three in games that went over 2.5 goals on all three occasions (2-1 win at Crewe, 4-1 win v Wigan and 4-3 loss at Stoke).

Sheffield Wednesday were not exactly prolific in a 1-0 win over Bury at home in the first round last season, and with no O'Grady the Owls will lineup without their preferred strikeforce. The 2-0 win over Rochdale would have pleased Megson, whose defensive approach is perhaps the antithesis of Holloway, in that the Owls held on for a clean sheet. However, keeping Blackpool out may not be so easy tonight.

A difficult call, and with a host of changes none of the prices appeal on the outright markets. 10/11 on over 2.5 goals is perhaps a little slim, but for those looking for a bet tonight, it is never a bad idea to have goals on your side in a Blackpool match, especially in the League Cup where extra-time will want to be avoided if possible.

SUGGESTION:

Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11 @ Coral (0.5pts)

Hull City 0-1 Blackpool

If the return of this blog carried with it no great fanfare, the return of Blackpool to the Championship was hardly front-page news either. Despite becoming the darling side of many a neutral a year ago with their free-flowing, attacking and attractive style of play, few expected Blackpool to make much of an impact on the top end of a fiercely competitive Championship this season.

With the spending power of West Ham and Leicester, alongside perennial contenders such as Nottingham Forest, Reading and Cardiff, Blackpool have hardly dropped down to a level where they can be assured of being one of the ‘big dogs’ in the league. Indeed, the short list of teams above does not include the sides that many people expect to make a run from the middle of the pack – Ipswich (whom I believe can make the playoffs), Brighton, Southampton, Leeds, Middlesbrough, Burnley and their Friday night opponents Hull City to name just a few.

However, after watching Ian Holloway’s men on Friday, my mind at least has been changed on the potential of this Blackpool team to mount a serious assault on the Championship playoffs. Yes, losing Charlie Adam to Liverpool would hurt any side, not to mention the late sale of D.J. Campbell during the pre-season, but the Blackpool skill and thirst for goals was as evident as ever at the KC Stadium. Some of the football in the second half was nothing short of magnificent, as the Blackpool midfield seemed to have a magnetic control of the football going forward. The overall ability to turn the sublime skill into killer passes and, ultimately, game-changing goals is still something that we have to wait more than 90 minutes to judge, but the signs are positive for Holloway’s men. In the goal scored by Gary Taylor-Fletcher, Blackpool showed that a pretty flick pass can set up a chance and that Taylor-Fletcher has the ability to do something that a host of Hull players cannot – smash the ball into the back of the net. This is not an Arsenal style of toothless, if pretty, passing – Blackpool genuinely mean it when they come forward.

Winning promotion may be a long way off for Blackpool even with this impressive start to the season, but worries that their stint in the top-flight, and their spiral out of it, may have dampened the mood around the club were dispelled with the gritty and, at times, thrilling display of football. Nearly all eleven players punched the air as the full-time whistle went – there is a fire that still remains within this team, and whether or not they ultimately fall short of a top six place (defensive frailties would have been exposed had Hull not continued last season’s lacklustre play in front of goal) Blackpool must still be respected as a side that present an interesting betting proposition as the season goes on.

90 minutes into the new season, and already I have learned something new from a fascinating night of football. Bring on Saturday.