Five games played and five points each as Sunderland head to Norwich for the Monday Night Football action on Sky Sports this evening.
However, from a betting point of view, there is no obvious edge to be found even after examining the facts and stats around the matchup. Norwich were seconds away from an impressive home win against Stoke early in the season before conceding a 94th minute equaliser, while Paul Lambert’s side were also unfortunate not to pick up at least a point at Stamford Bridge where they created a host of chances against Chelsea. A win at Bolton last time out placed more misery onto the shoulders of the troubled Wanderers, but in their last home match, the Canaries were beaten 1-0 by West Bromwich Albion thanks to an early defensive error from Ritchie De Laet. Those stats highlight that there is not a very clear read available on the hosts yet – who have also developed a peculiar habit of conceding a penalty each time they take to the field in the Premier League this season.
As for ex-Norwich City man Steve Bruce, he is beginning to face some pressure as he brings his Sunderland side south. The reasons for the pressure, however, appear to be more based around the fear of an upcoming lack of progress rather than any problems in real life – aside from the obviously troubling 1-0 home defeat to Newcastle. Sunderland fans were saddened to see Ghanaian striker Asamoah Gyan leave before the transfer window closed and the fear of stagnation is beginning to envelope some of the supporters at the Stadium of Light. The Black Cats began the season with a very credible draw away at Liverpool, before that home loss to their bitter rivals, however. A 0-0 draw away at Swansea potentially provides some insight as to how the contest this evening may turn out, which Bruce’s side followed up with variable home performances – a 2-1 loss to Chelsea and a 4-0 demolishing of a Stoke side who may still be adapting to the legwork required when playing a tough Europa League game away in Eastern Europe a few days before returning to the domestic scene.
It is not clear, then, quite what to expect tonight – it would be foolish and a lie to pretend that I had a strong feeling about how this contest will ultimately pan out. Many may point how close Aston Villa came to win at QPR yesterday as evidence that the hosts are under-priced at 6/4 – and considering the loss to West Brom and the problems at Bolton (Norwich’s sole Premiership scalp), they may be correct in doing so. However, 11/5 on the visitors is hardly a price that jumps out, given that Sunderland’s 4-goal explosion against Stoke may have had less to do with the solving of their goal scoring problems (just two goals in five matches prior to that game) and more to do with Stoke’s European exploits.
With big questions over who may win, and a feeling that the 0-0 draw which Sunderland earned at Swansea may be a good guide for this game, the over/under prices are also prohibitive. Under 2.5 goals is a best price 4/5, which is probably the correct price for the favourite outcome.
It is not often that this blog will ever recommend a complete ‘no bet’ – after all, why would anyone bother to read a betting preview if they didn’t want some advice. However, this blog focuses more on honesty than bluffing, and in that regard there are no prices tonight that I think merit an outlay. Sunderland at 6/5 on the draw no bet market does seem to be the most interesting to those really looking to get involved – and it is the one direction that I would hesitantly point to for ‘an interest’ – but this game is best watched for future reference.
Suggestion:
NO BET
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