Tuesday Selections

A summary of the bets for the night is available below. A review will be posted soon after the full time whistles.

Good luck to anyone involved!

BRISTOL CITY (DNB) v Reading 1pt @ 11/10

Burnley v NOTTINGHAM FOREST 1pt @ 21/10

Portsmouth v Peterborough Under 2.5 goals 2pts @ Evens

Forest Green Rovers v NEWPORT COUNTY (DNB) 1pt @ 8/5

Total Outlay: 5 points

Forest Green v Newport Tip

After getting burned when opposing Forest Green once beforethis season, I am going back to the well and taking on Dave Hockaday’s men as they face Newport County at home this evening.

Amazingly, Newport travel to Gloucestershire with just one win under their belts all season – a 4-0 thrashing of Hayes and Yeading at home in their second game of the campaign. Since then, County have not won in nine league games – a run that includes five defeats. However, of those defeats, two were away at teams with playoff aspirations (5-0 at Mansfield and 1-0 at Braintree) while defeats at home to Kidderminster and Cambridge are frustrating more than humiliating.

Since the 5-0 thrashing received at Field Mill, Newport have certainly made changes to improve defensively. Braintree and Stockport were held to single goals as County lost 1-0 away and drew 1-1 at home to those sides, while a last ditch Barrow equaliser in south Wales on Saturday cost Newport all three points in what could have been a 2-1 win. It would be a genuine shock to see County stay at the wrong end of the table for much longer, and the signs of a recovery of sorts are beginning to show through.

Forest Green meanwhile have been most successful when conducting their business away from home. They are unbeaten in six away contests – including some impressive results at Luton (1-1), Cambridge (1-1), Alfreton (6-1) and Tamworth (1-0). However, their home record is not something that should put fear into the hearts of Newport followers. Since Stockport were held 1-1 on the opening night of the season, Braintree (2-0), Grimsby (1-0) and Southport (3-2) have all collected three points. Only bottom club Bath suffered defeat on Rovers’ turf, as they went down 3-0.

That makes the 8/5 available on Newport ‘draw no bet’ a very tasty proposition indeed. Forest Green’s home record is probably a better reflection of their abilities than their away record so far, while the green shoots may just begin to shoot through for Newport after a miserable start to their season.

Suggestion:

Forest Green Rovers v NEWPORT COUNTY – Draw No Bet 1pt @ 8/5 (Coral)

Portsmouth v Peterborough Tip

Peterborough United have rightly earned a reputation as one of the more entertaining sides in the country, but they could be a part of a low scoring game on the south coast this evening.

Darren Ferguson’s Posh were on many a punters’ radar as a team that could be trusted to bring home bets on over 2.5 goals most weeks, and they began the season securing those bets without fail in the first five games in league and cup. That run was capped by an amazing 7-1 thumping of Ipswich Town at Loftus Road, but since then, the goals have started to show signs of drying up. In Peterborough’s next five matches, just one has involved three goals or more – a 2-1 win at home against Burnley. Meanwhile, Posh have suffered two 2-0 defeats (v Middlesbrough, @ Brighton) and two 1-0 defeats (v Hull and @ West Ham).

Add to those stats the potentially long-term absence of former Rushden and Diamonds man Lee Tomlin after he picked up an ankle injury at Upon Park on Saturday, and there is good reason to begin considering the prospect that under 2.5 goals may be being over-priced in Peterborough games.

Posh also head to face the under 2.5 kings on Tuesday night, in Portsmouth. Pompy defeated Blackpool 1-0 with a 9^th minute goal on Saturday – much my frustration – a score that continued a run of five consecutive home games with under 2.5 goals. Indeed, only an opening day 2-2 draw at Middlesbrough and a 4-3 loss at West Ham have seen Portsmouth be involved in games with more than two goals. The number of bookings and red cards picked up by Portsmouth this season also suggests a physical, rather than beautiful, style of football is being played at Fratton Park and that could lead to another low scoring encounter tonight. Luke Varney (suspension) and Dave Kitson are also out, meaning more problems for the hosts upfront.

Suggestion:

Portsmouth v Peterborough – Under 2.5 goals 2pts @ Evens (general)

Burnley v Nottingham Forest Tip

The pressure on the shoulders of Nottingham Forest manager Steve McClaren was temporarily reduced when his side claimed a 1-0 win away at Watford on the BBC on Saturday evening, but that reprieve will end very quickly if Forest are beaten at Turf Moor tonight.

Forest travel to face a Burnley side who are yet to win at home in the league, but who were just ten minutes away from ending that record on Saturday, before Southampton fought back to earn a 1-1 draw. Burnley came into that contest on the back of two straight defeats in the league, away at Peterborough and at home to Middlesbrough – however, they did defeat the MK Dons 2-1 at home as well, as predicted here. Whether that result, coupled with the point on Saturday, will signal a change in fortunes for the ex-Premiership side who now rest 21^st in the Championship, only time will tell, but injuries to Keith Treacy and Junior Stanislas will not help their cause tonight. Burnley rely on scoring goals to have a chance in any game, as they are yet to keep a clean sheet this season, conceding at least twice at home against Watford (2-2), Burton Albion (3-3 after 90 minutes), Barnet (2-2 after 90 minutes) and Middlesbrough (0-2). Only Cardiff had been held to a single goal at Turf Moor (1-1) before the Saints Saturday visit.

Forest, meanwhile, have been dipping in and out of good and abject form all season. McClaren’s side hit the news for all the wrong reasons when blowing a lead against 10-man Derby County at home in a 2-1 defeat to their bitter rivals, but they showed plenty of heart in an eventual 4-3 home defeat to Newcastle United in the Carling Cup – three times coming from behind. Their two wins out of four on the road, however, does show signs of promise. While their former City Ground fortress may have been breached too often for the City fans liking, McClaren’s side have shown the ability to beat teams on the road who they should expect to be beating. While Millwall (2-0 in an early August game) and Southampton (3-2) have defeated Forest, Gunter and Miller goals secured 1-0 wins at Doncaster and Watford respectably.

While home fans may not accept this, Burnley fall into the category of teams that Forest would expect to be beating away from home. Long-term injuries will keep Dexter Blackstock and Chris Cohen out, amongst others, but McClaren should name and unchanged side from that which won on Saturday at Vicarage Road. That means that Lee Camp, Ishmael Miller, Jonathan Greening and Luke Chambers should all start – a reminder of the quality which the side possesses. Burnley manager Eddie Howe may still be speaking of back-to-back wins opening the door to the top six, but that hope could look to be even further from the truth at full-time.

Given the above, three big questions still remain from a betting point of view. Does the value lay in backing Forest to win straight up (21/10), to win to nil (4/1) or to win with the draw a no bet (22/19). Each can make up their own mind from here, but personally, there is still a strong sense that Forest have not shown quite enough to be considered trustworthy at this stage. However, while that fact pushes me towards the very reasonable draw no bet price, 21/10 is a price that I just think is plainly too big, and for that reason being price-sensitive is the smarter move onto a Forest win.

Suggestion:

Burnley v NOTTINGHAM FOREST 1pt @ 21/10 (VC)

Bristol City v Reading Tip

Reading may sit eight places above Bristol City heading into their contest at Ashton Gate on Tuesday night, but the struggling Royals could find themselves below their opponents in the table when the full-time whistle blows.

Reading’s 8 point hall from their first 8 games is only two more than Bristol City’s 6, and Saturday’s 1-1 draw at Coventry has done little to inspire belief that last season’s playoff finalists are poised to kick their 11/12 campaign into a higher gear. Reading have two victories to their name this season – a 2-0 away win at Leicester on the second weekend of the season, and a 2-0 home win against a Doncaster side without their best players and just days away from getting rid of their manager. In their other contests, Brian McDermott’s side have failed to take advantage of a less than daunting early season fixture list. Millwall should have claimed a win at the Madejski Stadium on the opening day before two late Reading goals forced a 2-2 draw, while Barnsley, Hull, Portsmouth and Watford have all taken three points from the Berkshire side.

Of better news for Reading could be the developing partnership at centre back between Alex Pearce and Kaspars Gorkss, as praised here by Jobi McAnuff. Reading are yet to concede more than twice in a game this season, and have now conceded just one goal in over a 180 minutes of competitive football (Gary McSheffrey’s second minute strike for Coventry at the Ricoh on Saturday).

The Reading defence will certainly be looking to improve their record against a Bristol City team that has only scored more than one goal in a game once this season – like Reading, the Robins earned an early season win (2-1) away to Leicester City at the Walkers Stadium. However, Ipswich, Portsmouth and Brighton have all travelled to the south west and kept the hosts off the scoreboard – a 79^th minute Brett Pitman goal to salvage a 1-1 draw against Hull City on Saturday was the first home league goal of the season for Keith Millen’s men. That leaves the manager with a selection problem for tonight, after Pitman’s appearance from the bench on Saturday came after the two first choice strikers – Jon Stead and Nicky Maynard – were replaced.

These sides have totalled just three wins between them all season – with one each of those against Leicester, and Reading’s victory over Doncaster not exactly a sign of dramatic improvement. However, it is hard to see what justifies the 8/5 price on the Royals – making them clear favourites. City have lost just two of their last five in the league, a 2-1 defeat at Elland Road where the Robins will feel they should have gained a point, and a 1-0 defeat at home to high flying Brighton. Both Cardiff and Ipswich scored three against City to begin the season, but since then the defence has tightened up conceding six goals in six games. With Reading hardly prolific in front of goal that could make this a tight and low scoring encounter.

2/1 on Bristol City does seem a reasonable price then, but the draw is a very live player in this match with the inability of either side to take three points often this season. The better bet may then to be to take the 11/10 available on Bristol City as a ‘draw no bet ’proposition. Considering how evenly matched these teams look, having odds against on the hosts is a good opportunitym as it is hard to see Reading as favourites to take all three points based on their respective efforts this season. With Jimmy Kebe also expected to be missing from the visitors starting line-up, Robins fans may be the happier by 10pm this evening.

It should also be noted that the under 2.5 goal price is a best price 8/11 – the correct price for this one and not worth taking on.

Suggestion:

BRISTOL CITY v Reading: Draw-no-bet 1pt @ 11/10 (Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Coral)

Norwich 2-1 Sunderland

No bet was the selection last night, and Norwich proved a number of doubters wrong with a 2-1 win at Carrow Road.

Barnett opened the scoring for the hosts just after the half hour mark, a lead that was doubled from a Morrison header just after the interval. Black Cats manager Steve Bruce blamed individual errors from his key players for the defeat, which was confirmed not long after Kieran Richardson pulled a goal back on 86 minutes.

Check back later today for the tips for tonight.