Burnley v Nottingham Forest Tip

The pressure on the shoulders of Nottingham Forest manager Steve McClaren was temporarily reduced when his side claimed a 1-0 win away at Watford on the BBC on Saturday evening, but that reprieve will end very quickly if Forest are beaten at Turf Moor tonight.

Forest travel to face a Burnley side who are yet to win at home in the league, but who were just ten minutes away from ending that record on Saturday, before Southampton fought back to earn a 1-1 draw. Burnley came into that contest on the back of two straight defeats in the league, away at Peterborough and at home to Middlesbrough – however, they did defeat the MK Dons 2-1 at home as well, as predicted here. Whether that result, coupled with the point on Saturday, will signal a change in fortunes for the ex-Premiership side who now rest 21^st in the Championship, only time will tell, but injuries to Keith Treacy and Junior Stanislas will not help their cause tonight. Burnley rely on scoring goals to have a chance in any game, as they are yet to keep a clean sheet this season, conceding at least twice at home against Watford (2-2), Burton Albion (3-3 after 90 minutes), Barnet (2-2 after 90 minutes) and Middlesbrough (0-2). Only Cardiff had been held to a single goal at Turf Moor (1-1) before the Saints Saturday visit.

Forest, meanwhile, have been dipping in and out of good and abject form all season. McClaren’s side hit the news for all the wrong reasons when blowing a lead against 10-man Derby County at home in a 2-1 defeat to their bitter rivals, but they showed plenty of heart in an eventual 4-3 home defeat to Newcastle United in the Carling Cup – three times coming from behind. Their two wins out of four on the road, however, does show signs of promise. While their former City Ground fortress may have been breached too often for the City fans liking, McClaren’s side have shown the ability to beat teams on the road who they should expect to be beating. While Millwall (2-0 in an early August game) and Southampton (3-2) have defeated Forest, Gunter and Miller goals secured 1-0 wins at Doncaster and Watford respectably.

While home fans may not accept this, Burnley fall into the category of teams that Forest would expect to be beating away from home. Long-term injuries will keep Dexter Blackstock and Chris Cohen out, amongst others, but McClaren should name and unchanged side from that which won on Saturday at Vicarage Road. That means that Lee Camp, Ishmael Miller, Jonathan Greening and Luke Chambers should all start – a reminder of the quality which the side possesses. Burnley manager Eddie Howe may still be speaking of back-to-back wins opening the door to the top six, but that hope could look to be even further from the truth at full-time.

Given the above, three big questions still remain from a betting point of view. Does the value lay in backing Forest to win straight up (21/10), to win to nil (4/1) or to win with the draw a no bet (22/19). Each can make up their own mind from here, but personally, there is still a strong sense that Forest have not shown quite enough to be considered trustworthy at this stage. However, while that fact pushes me towards the very reasonable draw no bet price, 21/10 is a price that I just think is plainly too big, and for that reason being price-sensitive is the smarter move onto a Forest win.

Suggestion:

Burnley v NOTTINGHAM FOREST 1pt @ 21/10 (VC)

Changes aplenty for Dons

There are plenty of fascinating Carling Cup ties tonight and we begin with the matchup at Turf Moor.  MK Dons, 4^th placed in League One, head to Burnley with their minds focussed on another cup scalp after their demolition of Norwich in the last round. Milton Keynes stunned their Premiership opponents with a 4-0 away win, and have won five of their six away games this season. Their only loss came in their last away trip when they defeated 3-1 by Sheffield Wednesday.

However, manager Karl Robinson will likely have to field a side that is much changed tonight as he travels to Turf Moor with a number of reserves and academy players expected to feature. Defender Gary MacKenzie is suspended after what Robinson described as a “stupid” off the ball sending off against Bournemouth on Saturday as the Dons were held to a 1-1 draw at home.

As for Eddie Howe’s Burnley, they will be looking to regain some form after two consecutive losses in the Championship. Burnley were beaten 2-1 at Peterborough on Saturday, a result that came on the heels of a 2-0 home defeat against Middlesbrough. Indeed, Burnley’s home form has hardly been stellar this season – they have won just two of five home league games, and both of those were extra time successes against lower league opposition (6-3 v Burton Albion, 3-2 v Barnet). Burnley have also failed to keep a single clean sheet this season, but Howe has maintained that performances have been better than results have suggested and is keen to make the Carling Cup a catalyst to more success in the league.

Even money on a home win would not appeal in the slightest if you take the form of these two sides this season at face value. However, given the changes to the MK Dons side that have been forced upon Karl Robinson for tonight, Burnley should have enough to see off their high-flying League One opponents. Despite failing to record 90 minute victories against League Two opposition at home twice already this season, reaching the 4^th round will provide further motivation for Burnley than may have been present in those earlier round contests, and with the need to claim a first home win in normal time on the minds of individuals at the club, this will likely be the right night to achieve that feet.

Suggestion:

BURNLEY 1pt win @ Evens (William Hill and various)