Tuesday Selections

A summary of the bets for the night is available below. A review will be posted soon after the full time whistles.

Good luck to anyone involved!

BRISTOL CITY (DNB) v Reading 1pt @ 11/10

Burnley v NOTTINGHAM FOREST 1pt @ 21/10

Portsmouth v Peterborough Under 2.5 goals 2pts @ Evens

Forest Green Rovers v NEWPORT COUNTY (DNB) 1pt @ 8/5

Total Outlay: 5 points

Portsmouth v Peterborough Tip

Peterborough United have rightly earned a reputation as one of the more entertaining sides in the country, but they could be a part of a low scoring game on the south coast this evening.

Darren Ferguson’s Posh were on many a punters’ radar as a team that could be trusted to bring home bets on over 2.5 goals most weeks, and they began the season securing those bets without fail in the first five games in league and cup. That run was capped by an amazing 7-1 thumping of Ipswich Town at Loftus Road, but since then, the goals have started to show signs of drying up. In Peterborough’s next five matches, just one has involved three goals or more – a 2-1 win at home against Burnley. Meanwhile, Posh have suffered two 2-0 defeats (v Middlesbrough, @ Brighton) and two 1-0 defeats (v Hull and @ West Ham).

Add to those stats the potentially long-term absence of former Rushden and Diamonds man Lee Tomlin after he picked up an ankle injury at Upon Park on Saturday, and there is good reason to begin considering the prospect that under 2.5 goals may be being over-priced in Peterborough games.

Posh also head to face the under 2.5 kings on Tuesday night, in Portsmouth. Pompy defeated Blackpool 1-0 with a 9^th minute goal on Saturday – much my frustration – a score that continued a run of five consecutive home games with under 2.5 goals. Indeed, only an opening day 2-2 draw at Middlesbrough and a 4-3 loss at West Ham have seen Portsmouth be involved in games with more than two goals. The number of bookings and red cards picked up by Portsmouth this season also suggests a physical, rather than beautiful, style of football is being played at Fratton Park and that could lead to another low scoring encounter tonight. Luke Varney (suspension) and Dave Kitson are also out, meaning more problems for the hosts upfront.

Suggestion:

Portsmouth v Peterborough – Under 2.5 goals 2pts @ Evens (general)

Burnley v Nottingham Forest Tip

The pressure on the shoulders of Nottingham Forest manager Steve McClaren was temporarily reduced when his side claimed a 1-0 win away at Watford on the BBC on Saturday evening, but that reprieve will end very quickly if Forest are beaten at Turf Moor tonight.

Forest travel to face a Burnley side who are yet to win at home in the league, but who were just ten minutes away from ending that record on Saturday, before Southampton fought back to earn a 1-1 draw. Burnley came into that contest on the back of two straight defeats in the league, away at Peterborough and at home to Middlesbrough – however, they did defeat the MK Dons 2-1 at home as well, as predicted here. Whether that result, coupled with the point on Saturday, will signal a change in fortunes for the ex-Premiership side who now rest 21^st in the Championship, only time will tell, but injuries to Keith Treacy and Junior Stanislas will not help their cause tonight. Burnley rely on scoring goals to have a chance in any game, as they are yet to keep a clean sheet this season, conceding at least twice at home against Watford (2-2), Burton Albion (3-3 after 90 minutes), Barnet (2-2 after 90 minutes) and Middlesbrough (0-2). Only Cardiff had been held to a single goal at Turf Moor (1-1) before the Saints Saturday visit.

Forest, meanwhile, have been dipping in and out of good and abject form all season. McClaren’s side hit the news for all the wrong reasons when blowing a lead against 10-man Derby County at home in a 2-1 defeat to their bitter rivals, but they showed plenty of heart in an eventual 4-3 home defeat to Newcastle United in the Carling Cup – three times coming from behind. Their two wins out of four on the road, however, does show signs of promise. While their former City Ground fortress may have been breached too often for the City fans liking, McClaren’s side have shown the ability to beat teams on the road who they should expect to be beating. While Millwall (2-0 in an early August game) and Southampton (3-2) have defeated Forest, Gunter and Miller goals secured 1-0 wins at Doncaster and Watford respectably.

While home fans may not accept this, Burnley fall into the category of teams that Forest would expect to be beating away from home. Long-term injuries will keep Dexter Blackstock and Chris Cohen out, amongst others, but McClaren should name and unchanged side from that which won on Saturday at Vicarage Road. That means that Lee Camp, Ishmael Miller, Jonathan Greening and Luke Chambers should all start – a reminder of the quality which the side possesses. Burnley manager Eddie Howe may still be speaking of back-to-back wins opening the door to the top six, but that hope could look to be even further from the truth at full-time.

Given the above, three big questions still remain from a betting point of view. Does the value lay in backing Forest to win straight up (21/10), to win to nil (4/1) or to win with the draw a no bet (22/19). Each can make up their own mind from here, but personally, there is still a strong sense that Forest have not shown quite enough to be considered trustworthy at this stage. However, while that fact pushes me towards the very reasonable draw no bet price, 21/10 is a price that I just think is plainly too big, and for that reason being price-sensitive is the smarter move onto a Forest win.

Suggestion:

Burnley v NOTTINGHAM FOREST 1pt @ 21/10 (VC)

Bristol City v Reading Tip

Reading may sit eight places above Bristol City heading into their contest at Ashton Gate on Tuesday night, but the struggling Royals could find themselves below their opponents in the table when the full-time whistle blows.

Reading’s 8 point hall from their first 8 games is only two more than Bristol City’s 6, and Saturday’s 1-1 draw at Coventry has done little to inspire belief that last season’s playoff finalists are poised to kick their 11/12 campaign into a higher gear. Reading have two victories to their name this season – a 2-0 away win at Leicester on the second weekend of the season, and a 2-0 home win against a Doncaster side without their best players and just days away from getting rid of their manager. In their other contests, Brian McDermott’s side have failed to take advantage of a less than daunting early season fixture list. Millwall should have claimed a win at the Madejski Stadium on the opening day before two late Reading goals forced a 2-2 draw, while Barnsley, Hull, Portsmouth and Watford have all taken three points from the Berkshire side.

Of better news for Reading could be the developing partnership at centre back between Alex Pearce and Kaspars Gorkss, as praised here by Jobi McAnuff. Reading are yet to concede more than twice in a game this season, and have now conceded just one goal in over a 180 minutes of competitive football (Gary McSheffrey’s second minute strike for Coventry at the Ricoh on Saturday).

The Reading defence will certainly be looking to improve their record against a Bristol City team that has only scored more than one goal in a game once this season – like Reading, the Robins earned an early season win (2-1) away to Leicester City at the Walkers Stadium. However, Ipswich, Portsmouth and Brighton have all travelled to the south west and kept the hosts off the scoreboard – a 79^th minute Brett Pitman goal to salvage a 1-1 draw against Hull City on Saturday was the first home league goal of the season for Keith Millen’s men. That leaves the manager with a selection problem for tonight, after Pitman’s appearance from the bench on Saturday came after the two first choice strikers – Jon Stead and Nicky Maynard – were replaced.

These sides have totalled just three wins between them all season – with one each of those against Leicester, and Reading’s victory over Doncaster not exactly a sign of dramatic improvement. However, it is hard to see what justifies the 8/5 price on the Royals – making them clear favourites. City have lost just two of their last five in the league, a 2-1 defeat at Elland Road where the Robins will feel they should have gained a point, and a 1-0 defeat at home to high flying Brighton. Both Cardiff and Ipswich scored three against City to begin the season, but since then the defence has tightened up conceding six goals in six games. With Reading hardly prolific in front of goal that could make this a tight and low scoring encounter.

2/1 on Bristol City does seem a reasonable price then, but the draw is a very live player in this match with the inability of either side to take three points often this season. The better bet may then to be to take the 11/10 available on Bristol City as a ‘draw no bet ’proposition. Considering how evenly matched these teams look, having odds against on the hosts is a good opportunitym as it is hard to see Reading as favourites to take all three points based on their respective efforts this season. With Jimmy Kebe also expected to be missing from the visitors starting line-up, Robins fans may be the happier by 10pm this evening.

It should also be noted that the under 2.5 goal price is a best price 8/11 – the correct price for this one and not worth taking on.

Suggestion:

BRISTOL CITY v Reading: Draw-no-bet 1pt @ 11/10 (Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Coral)

Saturday Review

After a rough week, back to the world of profit this evening, albeit modest. Review below:

Aldershot 0-1 CRAWLEY TOWN : Only one goal at the Rec on the day that Aldershot found out that they would host Manchester United in the Carling Cup 4th Round. Doughty with the only goal on 64 minutes to secure the points for Steve Evans' side.

Portsmouth 1-0 BLACKPOOL (DNB) : Oh dear! Heading for the 'no bet' element of this tip when with virtually the final kick of the contest Portsmouth snatched a winner. 94th minute heartbreak after a level contest.

Wigan Athletic 1-2 SPURS : Comfortable enough for Spurs, although they perhaps should have put the home side away by more than a one goal margain. Early goals from Bale and Van der Vaart enough to grab three points.

Wigan Athletic 1-2 SPURS : Over 2.5 goals secured here as well when Diame pulled one back for Wigan on 50 minutes.

Summary of Bets:

Three Winners: Spurs win 1pt @ 5/6

                        Wigan v Spurs Over 2.5 goals 1pt @ 10/11

                        Crawley win 1pt @ 7/5

One loser: Blackpool DNB 1pt @ 23/17

Profit for day = 2.14 points

Total running loss for season = 0.07 points

Saturday Selections

Four bets for this Saturday afternoon then as I look to recover from the frustrating Brighton v Leeds contest from last night.

Aldershot v CRAWLEY TOWN (1pt win @ 7/5)

Portsmouth v BLACKPOOL (DNB) (1pt @ 23/17)

Wigan Athletic v SPURS (1pt win @ 5/6)

Wigan Athletic v Spurs Over 2.5 goals (1pt @ 10/11)

Check back later for a review, and feel free to add comments to disagree!

Portsmouth v Blackpool Tip

Regular readers of this blog will know the high regard inwhich I hold Blackpool as a team to follow in the Championship this season. Once again, they are the subject of another selection as they head to the south coast to face Portsmouth this afternoon.

Ian Holloway’s troops are in the midst of a four game unbeaten run in the league, and have only been beaten once all season (excluding a penalty shootout defeat at Sheffield Wednesday in the Carling Cup) – when Derby County claimed a 1-0 win at Bloomfield Road. Hull (away), Peterborough (home)and Ipswich (home) have all failed to claim a point against Blackpool, while Crystal Palace (away), Cardiff (home) and Brighton (away) have all been held to a draw. Veteran striker Kevin Phillips has already bagged five league goals this campaign and will once again pose a real danger to the Portsmouth rearguard.

As for Portsmouth, that defence has kept two clean-sheets this season against Reading (home) and Bristol City (away), and has only conceded more than a single goal on two occasions (Middlesbrough away when the score was 2-2, and a dramatic 4-3 loss at West Ham). Of more concern for home supporters may well be the clubs lack of discipline, with the sending off in consecutive games of Liam Lawrence and Luke Varney. Lawrence will return today, but Varney misses out, and Portsmouth also had five players booked in games against Brighton and Middlesbrough.

This could well be another low scoring encounter at Fratton Park – in four league and home matches this season from Portsmouth there have been just five total goals. But the value lays with the visitors at 23/17 in draw-no-bet market. Portsmouth may have just enough to stifle the Blackpool attack, but missing Luke Varney will not help their attacking prospects and if anyone should come out on top, it will most likely be the visitors.

Suggestion:

Blackpool Draw-No-Bet 1pt @ 23/17 (bwin)

Brighton 3-3 Leeds

I predicted excitement at the AMEX Stadium on Friday night, and the contest between Brighton and Leeds duly turned into a thriller. However, despite the six goals in total, one key prediction did not come to fruition.

CHECKLIST (pre-game expectations):

Over 2.5 goals - Check
Leeds pose real attacking threat - Check
Craig Mackail Smith to make impact - Check
Leeds to score a crucial goal late on - Check
Leeds to avoid crucial defensive errors and win - FAIL

Talk about coming close. The visitors were 2-0 to the good before half an hour had been played after Ross McCormack had doubled Andy Keogh's early strike. That lead was maintained comfortably into the second half, before the madness descended upon the United defence. First, Craig Mackail-Smith was allowed to move into the box to cut the deficit in half with a cool, low finish across the goalkeeper. Then, soon after, Leigh Bromby dived in for no real reason on Mackail-Smith in the box - setting up a penalty that Ashley Barnes converted in the same efficient fashion as he did against Liverpool on Wednesday.

At 2-2, Leeds were shell shocked after having three points seemingly locked up. Worse was to come for the travelling supporters when Mackail-Smith tapped in from close range late on to seemingly secure the win for the hosts. However, McCormack grabbed a second late in injury time to grab Leeds a point at the death.

A hideously frustrating night for Leeds backers - especially those of us who turned down the draw-no-bet option, only to see Leeds do exactly as I suggested they might and push on to score a goal at the death that would change the game. On a night that should have seen profit, Leeds could not escape from themselves, and defensive errors blew the away victory for them.

Summary of Bets


One loser: Brighton v LEEDS 1pt @ 13/5


One winner: Over 2.5 goals 1pt @ 8/11


Total Loss: 0.27 points


Total Loss for season: 2.21 points

Brighton v Leeds Tips

Brighton against Leeds may not sound like the most interesting game of the weekend, but those who tune-in to Sky Sports tonight could well be in for a treat.

Both clubs come into the contest on the back of high profile, nationally televised, Carling Cup defeats during the week. Leeds travel to the south coast 72 hours after a home defeat against Manchester United, while Brighton are back in action at the AMEX Stadium just 48 hours after they were beaten 2-1 by Liverpool. Both of those contests were viewed through the prism of this match by both respective clubs, and though Leeds have the advantage of the extra day of rest, that should be negated by the fact that Brighton have not had to travel during the week.

The ‘home factor’ will also be playing on the minds of both sets of fans. After promotion from League One last season, the Seagulls are enjoying every minute of playing in their new home, and goalkeeper Casper Ankergren (playing against his former employers tonight) has not been the only Brighton player to outline the effect of playing in front of full houses rather than with the dreadful atmosphere ‘created’ more often than not at the Withdean Stadium. The 12^th man has certainly been useful to Gus Poyet’s talented side so far this campaign, with Albion unbeaten at home in the league (3 games/2 wins) and also despatching Gillingham and Premier League Sunderland in the Carling Cup. They will certainly be looking to bounce back after the home defeat to Liverpool was their first failure at their new home in competitive football.

The hosts lay third in the division after a 1-0 away defeat to Leicester last Saturday but will still boast a dangerous attacking threat. That defeat was Brighton’s first goalless effort of the new season, and although Craig Mackail-Smith has only bagged three goals this term he remains a potent threat for opposition defences. However, influential midfielder Will Buckley misses out for the hosts after aggravating a hamstring injury in the game against Liverpool.

Leeds themselves have no injury problems as they head the south coast, and Simon Grayson should have a full twenty-man squad to choose from tonight. That could mean a return for Luciano Becchio, while Billy Paynter also returns from injury. These returns leave Grayson with no shortage of attacking options at his own disposal, and with Ross McCormack already on seven goals in all competitions so far this season, Leeds have the firepower to trouble the Brighton defence repeatedly. However, all has not gone well for United on their travels so far this season. They have not won any of their three away trips in the league, a campaign that started off with the equivalent of a 3-1 mauling at Southampton, where the scoreline fails to tell the full story. An equaliser with the last kick off the game at West Ham salvaged a point in East London, but defeat at stuttering Ipswich hardly put concerns to bed.

However, Grayson has been happy with his sides’ efforts away from home despite those results, and their may well be good reason for confidence beyond the headline figures. Leeds were in control at Ipswich, and in the lead, before they were reduced to ten-men shortly after the interval and then only succumbed to a stoppage time defeat. Arguably, a point was the least that they deserved at West Ham after bossing most of the second half and they did defeat Doncaster 2-1 away from home in the Carling Cup.

Wins have just about been coming at Elland Road for Leeds as well, with Hull being put to the sword 4-1 in August, before late goals were enough to see off Crystal Palace (3-2) and Bristol City (2-1). It is hardly stellar form, but there may be some truth to Grayson’s words of confidence in the performances of his team, and with the attacking capabilities and ability to battle on and score late goals, it is hard to count out Leeds’ chances tonight.

I tipped over 3.5 goals in the midweek Leeds v Man Utd encounter only to be scuppered by the host’s inability to find the back of the net. Goals look certain to be on the cards again tonight, however, in what promises to be an exciting encounter, and 8/11 about over 2.5 goals looks just about big enough to be of interest. While there may be some concern that the short-week could catch up with both sets of players, both sides, especially Leeds, have the depth of quality in their squads to still be able to score goals.

Indeed, it is the depth of quality that the visitors possess, alongside the absence of Will Buckley for Brighton, that also makes Leeds stand out as valuable options on their own. Given the 13/8 available on the draw-no-bet market, and the 13/5 available about the straight-up away win, I’m opting to put trust in the visitors to complete the job and come away with the three points they have been waiting for on the road. Brighton will ultimately end up with a very good home record this season, but Leeds are primed to inflict the first home league defeat upon the Seagulls.

SUGGESTION:

Over 2.5 goals. 1pt @ 8/11 (Boylesports and Skybet)

Leeds win 1pt @ 13/5 (various – including Stan James) 

Ipswich Town 3-0 Coventry City

A little bit of regret this morning that I do not go with the strong intuitive position I held in favour of Ipswich last night, as they began to show some of their undoubted class en route to a 3-0 victory against Coventry City.

The result was never really in doubt, especially after two goals in the opening fifteen minutes. Overs backers were no doubt delighted when Jason Scotland made it 3-0 with just over 20 minutes remaining, but unfortunately none of the three on target attempts from the visitors found the back of the net.

Check back later today for Carling Cup selections for matches tonight.

Summary of Bets:

One Loser: Ipswich v Coventry – ‘Both teams to score’ @ 8/11 (0.5pts)

TOTAL LOSS: 0.5 points
TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 4.06 points

Monday Night Goals...

After what has seemed like an eternity of offline existence (thanks a lot Sky!) the blog is finally able to return for good this evening, and we return to live Championship football on Sky Sports.

At the beginning of the new season, many were already writing off the chances of Coventry City surviving in their battle against relegation this season. With a sustained lack of investment worrying even the most die-hard ‘sky blues’ fan, four consecutive defeats to begin the season (including a 3-1 defeat at League One side Bury in the Carling Cup) did nothing to instil any sense of renewed optimism.

However, since a 2-1 defeat at Crystal Palace on the 16^th of August (where Coventry took a 1-0 lead into stoppage time), Andy Thorn’s side have been unbeaten in three Championship matches, including an away draw at Middlesbrough and an impressive 2-0 home victory against Derby County.

The chances of this recent upturn in form being sustained through the contest tonight have been bolstered by the (BBC reported) news that Clive Platt and Gary McSheffrey both may return to the squad, while recent signing from Norwich Cody McDonald should be available to make his second start for the club, if Thorn opts to start him over Freddy Eastwood.

If Coventry were tipped as relegation certainties, many more pre-season comments were centred on the possibility of Ipswich being Championship dark-horses this season. However, the Tractor Boys start has been far more Eeyore than Shergar. With Paul Jewell at the helm, and signings such as Jimmy Bullard, Keith Andrews and Lee Bowyer, it is easy to see why many expected Ipswich to be pushing at the top end of the table. However, despite a 3-0 win at Bristol City on the opening day of the season, Ipswich find themselves just one point (6) and one place (17^th) above their rivals tonight. Defensively, Ipswich have provided much more in the way of feast rather than famine. Their 3-0 win in Bristol was the only game this season where they have kept a clean sheet, and losing 7-1 at Peterborough and 5-2 at Southampton have contributed heavily the worst defensive record in the division.

Town lost 2-0 last time out at Blackpool, and while their last home game saw them pick up a 2-1 victory against Leeds, that result was flattered by not only a stoppage time winner, but also by the fact that Leeds were reduced to 10 men when leading 1-0 on 50 minutes.

All in all, this is a very tough match from a betting perspective. Coventry are more than likely enjoying a decent run rather than having turned a major corner in terms of their future fortunes, a run that is likely to end soon. However, the evidence of the Sky cameras this season has been clear – a 2-0 Coventry win over Derby and a 7-1 humiliation for Ipswich at Peterborough. However, Paul Jewell is the perfect manager to get a response from his players and to use their previous television capitulation as motivation for a better performance tonight, and the Tractor Boys did display something of a fighting spirit in turning around the game against Leeds last time out at Portman Road.

In the end, while the gut says that Ipswich could well be value at 11/10 to record the home win, the performances have not been there for the hosts, meaning that now may not be the time to put money down on a change of fortunes. Instead, ‘both teams to score’ looks like the most solid wager for a small interest with the attacking qualities of both sides – Coventry have scored on every away trip this season – and the fragile home defence. Expect a nervy game with all three results being live and on the table.

Suggestion:

0.5pts ‘Both Teams to Score’ @ 8/11 (@ Boyle, Coral and Ladbrokes)

Hull City 0-1 Blackpool

If the return of this blog carried with it no great fanfare, the return of Blackpool to the Championship was hardly front-page news either. Despite becoming the darling side of many a neutral a year ago with their free-flowing, attacking and attractive style of play, few expected Blackpool to make much of an impact on the top end of a fiercely competitive Championship this season.

With the spending power of West Ham and Leicester, alongside perennial contenders such as Nottingham Forest, Reading and Cardiff, Blackpool have hardly dropped down to a level where they can be assured of being one of the ‘big dogs’ in the league. Indeed, the short list of teams above does not include the sides that many people expect to make a run from the middle of the pack – Ipswich (whom I believe can make the playoffs), Brighton, Southampton, Leeds, Middlesbrough, Burnley and their Friday night opponents Hull City to name just a few.

However, after watching Ian Holloway’s men on Friday, my mind at least has been changed on the potential of this Blackpool team to mount a serious assault on the Championship playoffs. Yes, losing Charlie Adam to Liverpool would hurt any side, not to mention the late sale of D.J. Campbell during the pre-season, but the Blackpool skill and thirst for goals was as evident as ever at the KC Stadium. Some of the football in the second half was nothing short of magnificent, as the Blackpool midfield seemed to have a magnetic control of the football going forward. The overall ability to turn the sublime skill into killer passes and, ultimately, game-changing goals is still something that we have to wait more than 90 minutes to judge, but the signs are positive for Holloway’s men. In the goal scored by Gary Taylor-Fletcher, Blackpool showed that a pretty flick pass can set up a chance and that Taylor-Fletcher has the ability to do something that a host of Hull players cannot – smash the ball into the back of the net. This is not an Arsenal style of toothless, if pretty, passing – Blackpool genuinely mean it when they come forward.

Winning promotion may be a long way off for Blackpool even with this impressive start to the season, but worries that their stint in the top-flight, and their spiral out of it, may have dampened the mood around the club were dispelled with the gritty and, at times, thrilling display of football. Nearly all eleven players punched the air as the full-time whistle went – there is a fire that still remains within this team, and whether or not they ultimately fall short of a top six place (defensive frailties would have been exposed had Hull not continued last season’s lacklustre play in front of goal) Blackpool must still be respected as a side that present an interesting betting proposition as the season goes on.

90 minutes into the new season, and already I have learned something new from a fascinating night of football. Bring on Saturday.