Brighton 3-3 Leeds

I predicted excitement at the AMEX Stadium on Friday night, and the contest between Brighton and Leeds duly turned into a thriller. However, despite the six goals in total, one key prediction did not come to fruition.

CHECKLIST (pre-game expectations):

Over 2.5 goals - Check
Leeds pose real attacking threat - Check
Craig Mackail Smith to make impact - Check
Leeds to score a crucial goal late on - Check
Leeds to avoid crucial defensive errors and win - FAIL

Talk about coming close. The visitors were 2-0 to the good before half an hour had been played after Ross McCormack had doubled Andy Keogh's early strike. That lead was maintained comfortably into the second half, before the madness descended upon the United defence. First, Craig Mackail-Smith was allowed to move into the box to cut the deficit in half with a cool, low finish across the goalkeeper. Then, soon after, Leigh Bromby dived in for no real reason on Mackail-Smith in the box - setting up a penalty that Ashley Barnes converted in the same efficient fashion as he did against Liverpool on Wednesday.

At 2-2, Leeds were shell shocked after having three points seemingly locked up. Worse was to come for the travelling supporters when Mackail-Smith tapped in from close range late on to seemingly secure the win for the hosts. However, McCormack grabbed a second late in injury time to grab Leeds a point at the death.

A hideously frustrating night for Leeds backers - especially those of us who turned down the draw-no-bet option, only to see Leeds do exactly as I suggested they might and push on to score a goal at the death that would change the game. On a night that should have seen profit, Leeds could not escape from themselves, and defensive errors blew the away victory for them.

Summary of Bets


One loser: Brighton v LEEDS 1pt @ 13/5


One winner: Over 2.5 goals 1pt @ 8/11


Total Loss: 0.27 points


Total Loss for season: 2.21 points

Brighton v Leeds Tips

Brighton against Leeds may not sound like the most interesting game of the weekend, but those who tune-in to Sky Sports tonight could well be in for a treat.

Both clubs come into the contest on the back of high profile, nationally televised, Carling Cup defeats during the week. Leeds travel to the south coast 72 hours after a home defeat against Manchester United, while Brighton are back in action at the AMEX Stadium just 48 hours after they were beaten 2-1 by Liverpool. Both of those contests were viewed through the prism of this match by both respective clubs, and though Leeds have the advantage of the extra day of rest, that should be negated by the fact that Brighton have not had to travel during the week.

The ‘home factor’ will also be playing on the minds of both sets of fans. After promotion from League One last season, the Seagulls are enjoying every minute of playing in their new home, and goalkeeper Casper Ankergren (playing against his former employers tonight) has not been the only Brighton player to outline the effect of playing in front of full houses rather than with the dreadful atmosphere ‘created’ more often than not at the Withdean Stadium. The 12^th man has certainly been useful to Gus Poyet’s talented side so far this campaign, with Albion unbeaten at home in the league (3 games/2 wins) and also despatching Gillingham and Premier League Sunderland in the Carling Cup. They will certainly be looking to bounce back after the home defeat to Liverpool was their first failure at their new home in competitive football.

The hosts lay third in the division after a 1-0 away defeat to Leicester last Saturday but will still boast a dangerous attacking threat. That defeat was Brighton’s first goalless effort of the new season, and although Craig Mackail-Smith has only bagged three goals this term he remains a potent threat for opposition defences. However, influential midfielder Will Buckley misses out for the hosts after aggravating a hamstring injury in the game against Liverpool.

Leeds themselves have no injury problems as they head the south coast, and Simon Grayson should have a full twenty-man squad to choose from tonight. That could mean a return for Luciano Becchio, while Billy Paynter also returns from injury. These returns leave Grayson with no shortage of attacking options at his own disposal, and with Ross McCormack already on seven goals in all competitions so far this season, Leeds have the firepower to trouble the Brighton defence repeatedly. However, all has not gone well for United on their travels so far this season. They have not won any of their three away trips in the league, a campaign that started off with the equivalent of a 3-1 mauling at Southampton, where the scoreline fails to tell the full story. An equaliser with the last kick off the game at West Ham salvaged a point in East London, but defeat at stuttering Ipswich hardly put concerns to bed.

However, Grayson has been happy with his sides’ efforts away from home despite those results, and their may well be good reason for confidence beyond the headline figures. Leeds were in control at Ipswich, and in the lead, before they were reduced to ten-men shortly after the interval and then only succumbed to a stoppage time defeat. Arguably, a point was the least that they deserved at West Ham after bossing most of the second half and they did defeat Doncaster 2-1 away from home in the Carling Cup.

Wins have just about been coming at Elland Road for Leeds as well, with Hull being put to the sword 4-1 in August, before late goals were enough to see off Crystal Palace (3-2) and Bristol City (2-1). It is hardly stellar form, but there may be some truth to Grayson’s words of confidence in the performances of his team, and with the attacking capabilities and ability to battle on and score late goals, it is hard to count out Leeds’ chances tonight.

I tipped over 3.5 goals in the midweek Leeds v Man Utd encounter only to be scuppered by the host’s inability to find the back of the net. Goals look certain to be on the cards again tonight, however, in what promises to be an exciting encounter, and 8/11 about over 2.5 goals looks just about big enough to be of interest. While there may be some concern that the short-week could catch up with both sets of players, both sides, especially Leeds, have the depth of quality in their squads to still be able to score goals.

Indeed, it is the depth of quality that the visitors possess, alongside the absence of Will Buckley for Brighton, that also makes Leeds stand out as valuable options on their own. Given the 13/8 available on the draw-no-bet market, and the 13/5 available about the straight-up away win, I’m opting to put trust in the visitors to complete the job and come away with the three points they have been waiting for on the road. Brighton will ultimately end up with a very good home record this season, but Leeds are primed to inflict the first home league defeat upon the Seagulls.

SUGGESTION:

Over 2.5 goals. 1pt @ 8/11 (Boylesports and Skybet)

Leeds win 1pt @ 13/5 (various – including Stan James) 

Favourites likely in charge

The Wednesday night action in the Carling Cup does not throw up a great deal in terms of genuine betting opportunities, with the majority of games affected by squad rotations from both teams. This adds the irritating air of mystery to the majority of games that puts them firmly into 'no bet' territory.

Changes, for example, are expected for both Southampton and Preston in their contest at St. Mary's, while the intriguing clash between Leicester and Cardiff in South Wales will likely see both managers blooding a number of new faces from outside their first choice eleven.

Brighton fans, players and staff are of course excited for the visit of Liverpool to south coast on Sky Sports this evening, but again manager Gus Poyet could leave a few key faces out of his Championship side with a packed set of fixtures on the horizon. Steven Gerrard could return for Liverpool from the bench, and Kenny Dagleish did put out a strong side in the previous round of the competition when the Reds won comfortably against League One Exeter. However, a best price of 8/13 about the visitors is enough to deter any interest from a betting perspective (general).

The value may come tonight in opposing those sides who have extra reason to view the Carling Cup as an unnecessary distraction. Neither Fulham nor Birmingham are blessed with huge squads and both are heavily involved in Europa League action this season, as well as the Premiership and Championship respectively. Both sides are away to Premiership title chasers tonight, as Fulham prepare for a West London derby against Chelsea while Birmingham travel to face Manchester City. Again, all four sides will ring the changes, but the immense depth of quality that the top three sides in the Premier League possess was highlighted by the way that Manchester United dealt with Leeds United last night. Chelsea's youngsters and Manchester City's reserves (Hargreaves and possibly Tevez included) should both deal comfortably with their weakened opponents tonight - lets not forget that Fulham barely had an off-season after qualifying for the Europa League meant competitive action in July.

Suggestion:

3pts MANCHESTER CITY (1/5) v Birmingham and CHELSEA (4/9) v Fulham double @ William Hill.
Odds = 0.73/1