Impressive in a 0-0 home draw against Newcastle United in front of the Sky cameras earlier this season, plenty of punters will be interested in having QPR on-side in their Sunday afternoon contest against Aston Villa.
Buoyed by the signings of Joey Barton, D.J. Campbell and Shaun Wright-Phillips, QPR look capable of putting up more of a fight in the top-flight than they did at the start of the season. Their 4-0 opening day home defeat to Bolton seems a lifetime ago, and should be seen as such in betting terms. Since then, Rangers have picked up a 1-0 victory at Everton, and although they were beaten 2-0 at Wigan, they then went on to dominate against Newcastle in a 0-0 draw and stun Wolves 3-0 at Molineux. Goals from Barton, Faulin and Campbell in the west midlands highlight the number of options Rangers are developing in their attacking game – which has kicked into another gear since the arrival of Wright-Phillips.
At the back, Rangers are also an outfit to be increasingly reckoned with. The attacking threat means that the defence have less of the ball coming at them than they did early in the campaign, and Everton, Newcastle and Wolves have all failed to find the back of Paddy Kenny’s net.
That defensive record could well be extended against an increasingly flailing Aston Villa strike-force. Both Darren Bent and Emile Heskey look set to miss out at Loftus Road thanks to injury – facts that pile much of the attacking pressure onto the shoulders of Agbonlahor. The talented young striker has found the net three times already this season in the league, but there are concerns over whether Alex McLeish can get enough goals from the rest of the team. Although Villa did score three at home to Blackburn and two at Everton, they were also shutout at Fulham and at home to Wolves, and looked poor in a 2-0 home Carling Cup defeat to Bolton during the week.
However, in Shay Given, Villa have their own top class weapon between the sticks. Given was exceptional in the 1-1 home draw against Newcastle, and has the ability to almost single-handedly affect a result with his shot-stopping. Villa will not want to rely too heavily on Given of course, but they could well be in for a long afternoon if their ‘keeper is not on top form.
All the feeling about this game then seems to point to a QPR victory and under 2.5 goals. However, Villa are certainly no mugs and possess the quality in the side to make a mockery of a 12/5 price away from home at the newly promoted Rangers. At a best price 4/6 about under 2.5 goals, the bookmakers are clearly of a similar mindset in terms of the qualities of both defences, and we should be wary of taking a price that is too short by virtue of being carried away by sentiment. That fact means that the best value may lay with QPR in the ‘draw-no-bet’ market at 4/6 – a price that takes into account the possibility of Given and the Aston Villa defence making it a frustrating afternoon for the newly confident hosts.
Suggestion:
QUEENS PARK RANGERS v Aston Villa 1pt DNB @ 4/6 (Boylesports and Coral)
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