Norwich 2-1 Sunderland

No bet was the selection last night, and Norwich proved a number of doubters wrong with a 2-1 win at Carrow Road.

Barnett opened the scoring for the hosts just after the half hour mark, a lead that was doubled from a Morrison header just after the interval. Black Cats manager Steve Bruce blamed individual errors from his key players for the defeat, which was confirmed not long after Kieran Richardson pulled a goal back on 86 minutes.

Check back later today for the tips for tonight.

Norwich v Sunderland Preview

Five games played and five points each as Sunderland head to Norwich for the Monday Night Football action on Sky Sports this evening.

However, from a betting point of view, there is no obvious edge to be found even after examining the facts and stats around the matchup. Norwich were seconds away from an impressive home win against Stoke early in the season before conceding a 94^th minute equaliser, while Paul Lambert’s side were also unfortunate not to pick up at least a point at Stamford Bridge where they created a host of chances against Chelsea. A win at Bolton last time out placed more misery onto the shoulders of the troubled Wanderers, but in their last home match, the Canaries were beaten 1-0 by West Bromwich Albion thanks to an early defensive error from Ritchie De Laet. Those stats highlight that there is not a very clear read available on the hosts yet – who have also developed a peculiar habit of conceding a penalty each time they take to the field in the Premier League this season.

As for ex-Norwich City man Steve Bruce, he is beginning to face some pressure as he brings his Sunderland side south. The reasons for the pressure, however, appear to be more based around the fear of an upcoming lack of progress rather than any problems in real life – aside from the obviously troubling 1-0 home defeat to Newcastle. Sunderland fans were saddened to see Ghanaian striker Asamoah Gyan leave before the transfer window closed and the fear of stagnation is beginning to envelope some of the supporters at the Stadium of Light. The Black Cats began the season with a very credible draw away at Liverpool, before that home loss to their bitter rivals, however. A 0-0 draw away at Swansea potentially provides some insight as to how the contest this evening may turn out, which Bruce’s side followed up with variable home performances – a 2-1 loss to Chelsea and a 4-0 demolishing of a Stoke side who may still be adapting to the legwork required when playing a tough Europa League game away in Eastern Europe a few days before returning to the domestic scene.

It is not clear, then, quite what to expect tonight – it would be foolish and a lie to pretend that I had a strong feeling about how this contest will ultimately pan out. Many may point how close Aston Villa came to win at QPR yesterday as evidence that the hosts are under-priced at 6/4 – and considering the loss to West Brom and the problems at Bolton (Norwich’s sole Premiership scalp), they may be correct in doing so. However, 11/5 on the visitors is hardly a price that jumps out, given that Sunderland’s 4-goal explosion against Stoke may have had less to do with the solving of their goal scoring problems (just two goals in five matches prior to that game) and more to do with Stoke’s European exploits.

With big questions over who may win, and a feeling that the 0-0 draw which Sunderland earned at Swansea may be a good guide for this game, the over/under prices are also prohibitive. Under 2.5 goals is a best price 4/5, which is probably the correct price for the favourite outcome.

It is not often that this blog will ever recommend a complete ‘no bet’ – after all, why would anyone bother to read a betting preview if they didn’t want some advice. However, this blog focuses more on honesty than bluffing, and in that regard there are no prices tonight that I think merit an outlay. Sunderland at 6/5 on the draw no bet market does seem to be the most interesting to those really looking to get involved – and it is the one direction that I would hesitantly point to for ‘an interest’ – but this game is best watched for future reference.

Suggestion:

NO BET

QPR v Aston Villa Tip

Impressive in a 0-0 home draw against Newcastle United in front of the Sky cameras earlier this season, plenty of punters will be interested in having QPR on-side in their Sunday afternoon contest against Aston Villa.

Buoyed by the signings of Joey Barton, D.J. Campbell and Shaun Wright-Phillips, QPR look capable of putting up more of a fight in the top-flight than they did at the start of the season. Their 4-0 opening day home defeat to Bolton seems a lifetime ago, and should be seen as such in betting terms. Since then, Rangers have picked up a 1-0 victory at Everton, and although they were beaten 2-0 at Wigan, they then went on to dominate against Newcastle in a 0-0 draw and stun Wolves 3-0 at Molineux.  Goals from Barton, Faulin and Campbell in the west midlands highlight the number of options Rangers are developing in their attacking game – which has kicked into another gear since the arrival of Wright-Phillips.

At the back, Rangers are also an outfit to be increasingly reckoned with. The attacking threat means that the defence have less of the ball coming at them than they did early in the campaign, and Everton, Newcastle and Wolves have all failed to find the back of Paddy Kenny’s net.

That defensive record could well be extended against an increasingly flailing Aston Villa strike-force. Both Darren Bent and Emile Heskey look set to miss out at Loftus Road thanks to injury – facts that pile much of the attacking pressure onto the shoulders of Agbonlahor. The talented young striker has found the net three times already this season in the league, but there are concerns over whether Alex McLeish can get enough goals from the rest of the team. Although Villa did score three at home to Blackburn and two at Everton, they were also shutout at Fulham and at home to Wolves, and looked poor in a 2-0 home Carling Cup defeat to Bolton during the week.

However, in Shay Given, Villa have their own top class weapon between the sticks. Given was exceptional in the 1-1 home draw against Newcastle, and has the ability to almost single-handedly affect a result with his shot-stopping. Villa will not want to rely too heavily on Given of course, but they could well be in for a long afternoon if their ‘keeper is not on top form.

All the feeling about this game then seems to point to a QPR victory and under 2.5 goals. However, Villa are certainly no mugs and possess the quality in the side to make a mockery of a 12/5 price away from home at the newly promoted Rangers. At a best price 4/6 about under 2.5 goals, the bookmakers are clearly of a similar mindset in terms of the qualities of both defences, and we should be wary of taking a price that is too short by virtue of being carried away by sentiment. That fact means that the best value may lay with QPR in the ‘draw-no-bet’ market at 4/6 – a price that takes into account the possibility of Given and the Aston Villa defence making it a frustrating afternoon for the newly confident hosts.

Suggestion:

QUEENS PARK RANGERS  v Aston Villa 1pt DNB @ 4/6 (Boylesports and Coral)

Brighton v Leeds Tips

Brighton against Leeds may not sound like the most interesting game of the weekend, but those who tune-in to Sky Sports tonight could well be in for a treat.

Both clubs come into the contest on the back of high profile, nationally televised, Carling Cup defeats during the week. Leeds travel to the south coast 72 hours after a home defeat against Manchester United, while Brighton are back in action at the AMEX Stadium just 48 hours after they were beaten 2-1 by Liverpool. Both of those contests were viewed through the prism of this match by both respective clubs, and though Leeds have the advantage of the extra day of rest, that should be negated by the fact that Brighton have not had to travel during the week.

The ‘home factor’ will also be playing on the minds of both sets of fans. After promotion from League One last season, the Seagulls are enjoying every minute of playing in their new home, and goalkeeper Casper Ankergren (playing against his former employers tonight) has not been the only Brighton player to outline the effect of playing in front of full houses rather than with the dreadful atmosphere ‘created’ more often than not at the Withdean Stadium. The 12^th man has certainly been useful to Gus Poyet’s talented side so far this campaign, with Albion unbeaten at home in the league (3 games/2 wins) and also despatching Gillingham and Premier League Sunderland in the Carling Cup. They will certainly be looking to bounce back after the home defeat to Liverpool was their first failure at their new home in competitive football.

The hosts lay third in the division after a 1-0 away defeat to Leicester last Saturday but will still boast a dangerous attacking threat. That defeat was Brighton’s first goalless effort of the new season, and although Craig Mackail-Smith has only bagged three goals this term he remains a potent threat for opposition defences. However, influential midfielder Will Buckley misses out for the hosts after aggravating a hamstring injury in the game against Liverpool.

Leeds themselves have no injury problems as they head the south coast, and Simon Grayson should have a full twenty-man squad to choose from tonight. That could mean a return for Luciano Becchio, while Billy Paynter also returns from injury. These returns leave Grayson with no shortage of attacking options at his own disposal, and with Ross McCormack already on seven goals in all competitions so far this season, Leeds have the firepower to trouble the Brighton defence repeatedly. However, all has not gone well for United on their travels so far this season. They have not won any of their three away trips in the league, a campaign that started off with the equivalent of a 3-1 mauling at Southampton, where the scoreline fails to tell the full story. An equaliser with the last kick off the game at West Ham salvaged a point in East London, but defeat at stuttering Ipswich hardly put concerns to bed.

However, Grayson has been happy with his sides’ efforts away from home despite those results, and their may well be good reason for confidence beyond the headline figures. Leeds were in control at Ipswich, and in the lead, before they were reduced to ten-men shortly after the interval and then only succumbed to a stoppage time defeat. Arguably, a point was the least that they deserved at West Ham after bossing most of the second half and they did defeat Doncaster 2-1 away from home in the Carling Cup.

Wins have just about been coming at Elland Road for Leeds as well, with Hull being put to the sword 4-1 in August, before late goals were enough to see off Crystal Palace (3-2) and Bristol City (2-1). It is hardly stellar form, but there may be some truth to Grayson’s words of confidence in the performances of his team, and with the attacking capabilities and ability to battle on and score late goals, it is hard to count out Leeds’ chances tonight.

I tipped over 3.5 goals in the midweek Leeds v Man Utd encounter only to be scuppered by the host’s inability to find the back of the net. Goals look certain to be on the cards again tonight, however, in what promises to be an exciting encounter, and 8/11 about over 2.5 goals looks just about big enough to be of interest. While there may be some concern that the short-week could catch up with both sets of players, both sides, especially Leeds, have the depth of quality in their squads to still be able to score goals.

Indeed, it is the depth of quality that the visitors possess, alongside the absence of Will Buckley for Brighton, that also makes Leeds stand out as valuable options on their own. Given the 13/8 available on the draw-no-bet market, and the 13/5 available about the straight-up away win, I’m opting to put trust in the visitors to complete the job and come away with the three points they have been waiting for on the road. Brighton will ultimately end up with a very good home record this season, but Leeds are primed to inflict the first home league defeat upon the Seagulls.

SUGGESTION:

Over 2.5 goals. 1pt @ 8/11 (Boylesports and Skybet)

Leeds win 1pt @ 13/5 (various – including Stan James) 

Favourites likely in charge

The Wednesday night action in the Carling Cup does not throw up a great deal in terms of genuine betting opportunities, with the majority of games affected by squad rotations from both teams. This adds the irritating air of mystery to the majority of games that puts them firmly into 'no bet' territory.

Changes, for example, are expected for both Southampton and Preston in their contest at St. Mary's, while the intriguing clash between Leicester and Cardiff in South Wales will likely see both managers blooding a number of new faces from outside their first choice eleven.

Brighton fans, players and staff are of course excited for the visit of Liverpool to south coast on Sky Sports this evening, but again manager Gus Poyet could leave a few key faces out of his Championship side with a packed set of fixtures on the horizon. Steven Gerrard could return for Liverpool from the bench, and Kenny Dagleish did put out a strong side in the previous round of the competition when the Reds won comfortably against League One Exeter. However, a best price of 8/13 about the visitors is enough to deter any interest from a betting perspective (general).

The value may come tonight in opposing those sides who have extra reason to view the Carling Cup as an unnecessary distraction. Neither Fulham nor Birmingham are blessed with huge squads and both are heavily involved in Europa League action this season, as well as the Premiership and Championship respectively. Both sides are away to Premiership title chasers tonight, as Fulham prepare for a West London derby against Chelsea while Birmingham travel to face Manchester City. Again, all four sides will ring the changes, but the immense depth of quality that the top three sides in the Premier League possess was highlighted by the way that Manchester United dealt with Leeds United last night. Chelsea's youngsters and Manchester City's reserves (Hargreaves and possibly Tevez included) should both deal comfortably with their weakened opponents tonight - lets not forget that Fulham barely had an off-season after qualifying for the Europa League meant competitive action in July.

Suggestion:

3pts MANCHESTER CITY (1/5) v Birmingham and CHELSEA (4/9) v Fulham double @ William Hill.
Odds = 0.73/1

Tuesday Selections

Four games with selections tonight as the Carling Cup and Blue Square Premier take the spotlight on the domestic scene.

BURNLEY (1pt) v MK Dons

UNDER 2.5 (1pt) Aldershot v Rochdale

OVER 3.5 (1pt) Leeds v Man Utd

TAMWORTH (2pts) v Forest Green

An outlay of 5pts on the night, check back this evening for a review of the selections.

Goals Should Flow in TV Game

There are plenty of reasons to be expecting goals as Manchester United travel to Elland Road take on rivals Leeds in the Carling Cup tonight. United will of course ring the changes for the Carling Cup, but the immense depth of their squad means that they can still field a starting line-up that many teams in the Premiership would relish. In real terms, that means that both Michael Owen and Dimitar Berbatov may be in line for a chance to start, alongside more youngsters who will be desperate to impress Sir Alex. Indeed, the fantastic start that the Champions have made to the new season will only increase the importance of this game for those players that are chosen to play, as competition for places is extremely fierce at the club and no chance to impress can be turned down or taken for granted.

Leeds, meanwhile, will be desperate to channel the spirit of two years ago when they travelled to Old Trafford to win 1-0 in the third round of the FA Cup. That fact may ensure that Sir Alex is able to drill his squad into line, with the evidence clear that Leeds will never take it easy against their bitter rivals. However, this match will not define Leeds’ season whether they win or lose, and Simon Grayson will already have one and a half eyes on their Friday night trip to Brighton. That is not to say that this game is of little importance to Leeds, but some element of squad rotation may be forced upon the home side if there are any niggles picked up or if the game heads towards extra-time.

The bookmakers are hardly taking any chances on Manchester United and that is no surprise given their fiery start to the season. However, 4/7 on the visitors winning is just too short for an outlay on any away team in the Carling Cup, especially in the light of the feelings between these two clubs. Of more interest are goals bets, given that Leeds have yet to keep a clean sheet this season and have themselves only failed to score in one game. Only one Leeds game this season has had less than three goals, and five times games involving Leeds have had four goals or more. Their last Carling Cup home game saw Leeds defeat Bradford 3-2, while they were 2-1 winners away at Doncaster in another Yorkshire derby.

Manchester United have of course been in the goals themselves plenty this season. Their 8-2 hammering of Arsenal will go into folk lore, but a 5-0 win at Bolton was itself quite special. However, given the probable change of line-up for tonight, of more relevance may be United’s exploits in the Carling Cup last season. All three games in which United played saw at least four goals, as they won 5-2 at Scunthorpe, beat Wolves 3-2 and lost 4-0 at West Ham. There is no reason not to expect goals tonight, and with that in mind, take the line above the normal overs and expect over 3.5 goals at Elland Road.

Suggestion:

Leeds United v Manchester United: 1pt Over 3.5 goals @ 6/5 (Ladbrokes) (2.38 on Betfair)

Ipswich Town 3-0 Coventry City

A little bit of regret this morning that I do not go with the strong intuitive position I held in favour of Ipswich last night, as they began to show some of their undoubted class en route to a 3-0 victory against Coventry City.

The result was never really in doubt, especially after two goals in the opening fifteen minutes. Overs backers were no doubt delighted when Jason Scotland made it 3-0 with just over 20 minutes remaining, but unfortunately none of the three on target attempts from the visitors found the back of the net.

Check back later today for Carling Cup selections for matches tonight.

Summary of Bets:

One Loser: Ipswich v Coventry – ‘Both teams to score’ @ 8/11 (0.5pts)

TOTAL LOSS: 0.5 points
TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 4.06 points

Monday Night Goals...

After what has seemed like an eternity of offline existence (thanks a lot Sky!) the blog is finally able to return for good this evening, and we return to live Championship football on Sky Sports.

At the beginning of the new season, many were already writing off the chances of Coventry City surviving in their battle against relegation this season. With a sustained lack of investment worrying even the most die-hard ‘sky blues’ fan, four consecutive defeats to begin the season (including a 3-1 defeat at League One side Bury in the Carling Cup) did nothing to instil any sense of renewed optimism.

However, since a 2-1 defeat at Crystal Palace on the 16^th of August (where Coventry took a 1-0 lead into stoppage time), Andy Thorn’s side have been unbeaten in three Championship matches, including an away draw at Middlesbrough and an impressive 2-0 home victory against Derby County.

The chances of this recent upturn in form being sustained through the contest tonight have been bolstered by the (BBC reported) news that Clive Platt and Gary McSheffrey both may return to the squad, while recent signing from Norwich Cody McDonald should be available to make his second start for the club, if Thorn opts to start him over Freddy Eastwood.

If Coventry were tipped as relegation certainties, many more pre-season comments were centred on the possibility of Ipswich being Championship dark-horses this season. However, the Tractor Boys start has been far more Eeyore than Shergar. With Paul Jewell at the helm, and signings such as Jimmy Bullard, Keith Andrews and Lee Bowyer, it is easy to see why many expected Ipswich to be pushing at the top end of the table. However, despite a 3-0 win at Bristol City on the opening day of the season, Ipswich find themselves just one point (6) and one place (17^th) above their rivals tonight. Defensively, Ipswich have provided much more in the way of feast rather than famine. Their 3-0 win in Bristol was the only game this season where they have kept a clean sheet, and losing 7-1 at Peterborough and 5-2 at Southampton have contributed heavily the worst defensive record in the division.

Town lost 2-0 last time out at Blackpool, and while their last home game saw them pick up a 2-1 victory against Leeds, that result was flattered by not only a stoppage time winner, but also by the fact that Leeds were reduced to 10 men when leading 1-0 on 50 minutes.

All in all, this is a very tough match from a betting perspective. Coventry are more than likely enjoying a decent run rather than having turned a major corner in terms of their future fortunes, a run that is likely to end soon. However, the evidence of the Sky cameras this season has been clear – a 2-0 Coventry win over Derby and a 7-1 humiliation for Ipswich at Peterborough. However, Paul Jewell is the perfect manager to get a response from his players and to use their previous television capitulation as motivation for a better performance tonight, and the Tractor Boys did display something of a fighting spirit in turning around the game against Leeds last time out at Portman Road.

In the end, while the gut says that Ipswich could well be value at 11/10 to record the home win, the performances have not been there for the hosts, meaning that now may not be the time to put money down on a change of fortunes. Instead, ‘both teams to score’ looks like the most solid wager for a small interest with the attacking qualities of both sides – Coventry have scored on every away trip this season – and the fragile home defence. Expect a nervy game with all three results being live and on the table.

Suggestion:

0.5pts ‘Both Teams to Score’ @ 8/11 (@ Boyle, Coral and Ladbrokes)