Well...at least the Carling Cup is over for another round!
After some successful tipping in previous stages of the competition, including Shrewsbury winning at Derby County, it has been a very poor week, with just one winner from five selections. Last night, Manchester City did the business comfortably enough against Birmingham City, but Chelsea (reduced to ten men when Alex was sent off in the second half) could not muster a goal in 90 minutes against Fulham. Their ultimate victory on penalties came as too little too late for my suggested double.
Summary of Bets
One loser: Manchester City and Chelsea double 3pts @ 0.73/1
Total Loss: 3 points
Total Loss for season: 1.94 points
Stan James
Showing posts with label Carling Cup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Carling Cup. Show all posts
Thursday, 22 September 2011
Wednesday, 21 September 2011
Favourites likely in charge
The Wednesday night action in the Carling Cup does not throw up a great deal in terms of genuine betting opportunities, with the majority of games affected by squad rotations from both teams. This adds the irritating air of mystery to the majority of games that puts them firmly into 'no bet' territory.
Changes, for example, are expected for both Southampton and Preston in their contest at St. Mary's, while the intriguing clash between Leicester and Cardiff in South Wales will likely see both managers blooding a number of new faces from outside their first choice eleven.
Brighton fans, players and staff are of course excited for the visit of Liverpool to south coast on Sky Sports this evening, but again manager Gus Poyet could leave a few key faces out of his Championship side with a packed set of fixtures on the horizon. Steven Gerrard could return for Liverpool from the bench, and Kenny Dagleish did put out a strong side in the previous round of the competition when the Reds won comfortably against League One Exeter. However, a best price of 8/13 about the visitors is enough to deter any interest from a betting perspective (general).
The value may come tonight in opposing those sides who have extra reason to view the Carling Cup as an unnecessary distraction. Neither Fulham nor Birmingham are blessed with huge squads and both are heavily involved in Europa League action this season, as well as the Premiership and Championship respectively. Both sides are away to Premiership title chasers tonight, as Fulham prepare for a West London derby against Chelsea while Birmingham travel to face Manchester City. Again, all four sides will ring the changes, but the immense depth of quality that the top three sides in the Premier League possess was highlighted by the way that Manchester United dealt with Leeds United last night. Chelsea's youngsters and Manchester City's reserves (Hargreaves and possibly Tevez included) should both deal comfortably with their weakened opponents tonight - lets not forget that Fulham barely had an off-season after qualifying for the Europa League meant competitive action in July.
Suggestion:
3pts MANCHESTER CITY (1/5) v Birmingham and CHELSEA (4/9) v Fulham double @ William Hill.
Odds = 0.73/1
Changes, for example, are expected for both Southampton and Preston in their contest at St. Mary's, while the intriguing clash between Leicester and Cardiff in South Wales will likely see both managers blooding a number of new faces from outside their first choice eleven.
Brighton fans, players and staff are of course excited for the visit of Liverpool to south coast on Sky Sports this evening, but again manager Gus Poyet could leave a few key faces out of his Championship side with a packed set of fixtures on the horizon. Steven Gerrard could return for Liverpool from the bench, and Kenny Dagleish did put out a strong side in the previous round of the competition when the Reds won comfortably against League One Exeter. However, a best price of 8/13 about the visitors is enough to deter any interest from a betting perspective (general).
The value may come tonight in opposing those sides who have extra reason to view the Carling Cup as an unnecessary distraction. Neither Fulham nor Birmingham are blessed with huge squads and both are heavily involved in Europa League action this season, as well as the Premiership and Championship respectively. Both sides are away to Premiership title chasers tonight, as Fulham prepare for a West London derby against Chelsea while Birmingham travel to face Manchester City. Again, all four sides will ring the changes, but the immense depth of quality that the top three sides in the Premier League possess was highlighted by the way that Manchester United dealt with Leeds United last night. Chelsea's youngsters and Manchester City's reserves (Hargreaves and possibly Tevez included) should both deal comfortably with their weakened opponents tonight - lets not forget that Fulham barely had an off-season after qualifying for the Europa League meant competitive action in July.
Suggestion:
3pts MANCHESTER CITY (1/5) v Birmingham and CHELSEA (4/9) v Fulham double @ William Hill.
Odds = 0.73/1
Tuesday Results
Oh dear! Not quite the night that I had planned, but not a complete disaster either...
BURNLEY 2-1 MK Dons - First up is the positive result of the night, as Burnley just about delivered the win at Evens. They were hardly convincing however, being 1-0 down early on and only striking home the winning goal in the 89th minute.
Aldershot 2-1 Rochdale (Under 2.5) -The goals in this one came each time an unders backer would just about start to feel confident. Rochdale opened the scoring just prior to half-time, with Aldershot equalising immediately after the break. Defeat for both the visitors and the selection came in the 78th minute as Aldershot advanced to the Fourth Round for the first time in their history.
Leeds 0-3 Manchester United (Over 3.5) - Defeat as an overs backer this time, again by just one goal, in what I think is a justifiably unlucky outcome. Man Utd were 3-0 up before half-time as Michael Owen bagged a brace and Ryan Giggs put the outcome beyond reasonable doubt. However, no goals came at all in the second half, Leeds spurning a great one-on-one chance in the final seconds to leave the total goals at three.
TAMWORTH 0-1 Forest Green Rovers - The nap selection of the night was ironically the tip that was furthest from the mark. Forest Green maintained their excellent start to the season away from home (still unbeaten) thanks to an early own-goal when Paul Green deflected the ball into his own net. Tamworth's first home defeat of the year came despite them hitting the bar in the second half.
Summary of Bets
One winner: BURNLEY v MK Dons 1pt at Evs
Three losers: TAMWORTH v Forest Green Rovers 2pts @ 5/4
Aldershot v Rochdale Under 2.5 1pt @ Evs
Leeds v Man Utd Over 3.5 1pt @ 6/5
Total Loss: 3 points
TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 1.06 points
Check back later today for the selections for matches this evening.
BURNLEY 2-1 MK Dons - First up is the positive result of the night, as Burnley just about delivered the win at Evens. They were hardly convincing however, being 1-0 down early on and only striking home the winning goal in the 89th minute.
Aldershot 2-1 Rochdale (Under 2.5) -The goals in this one came each time an unders backer would just about start to feel confident. Rochdale opened the scoring just prior to half-time, with Aldershot equalising immediately after the break. Defeat for both the visitors and the selection came in the 78th minute as Aldershot advanced to the Fourth Round for the first time in their history.
Leeds 0-3 Manchester United (Over 3.5) - Defeat as an overs backer this time, again by just one goal, in what I think is a justifiably unlucky outcome. Man Utd were 3-0 up before half-time as Michael Owen bagged a brace and Ryan Giggs put the outcome beyond reasonable doubt. However, no goals came at all in the second half, Leeds spurning a great one-on-one chance in the final seconds to leave the total goals at three.
TAMWORTH 0-1 Forest Green Rovers - The nap selection of the night was ironically the tip that was furthest from the mark. Forest Green maintained their excellent start to the season away from home (still unbeaten) thanks to an early own-goal when Paul Green deflected the ball into his own net. Tamworth's first home defeat of the year came despite them hitting the bar in the second half.
Summary of Bets
One winner: BURNLEY v MK Dons 1pt at Evs
Three losers: TAMWORTH v Forest Green Rovers 2pts @ 5/4
Aldershot v Rochdale Under 2.5 1pt @ Evs
Leeds v Man Utd Over 3.5 1pt @ 6/5
Total Loss: 3 points
TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 1.06 points
Check back later today for the selections for matches this evening.
Tuesday, 20 September 2011
Tuesday Selections
Four games with selections tonight as the Carling Cup and Blue Square Premier take the spotlight on the domestic scene.
BURNLEY (1pt) v MK Dons
UNDER 2.5 (1pt) Aldershot v Rochdale
OVER 3.5 (1pt) Leeds v Man Utd
TAMWORTH (2pts) v Forest Green
An outlay of 5pts on the night, check back this evening for a review of the selections.
BURNLEY (1pt) v MK Dons
UNDER 2.5 (1pt) Aldershot v Rochdale
OVER 3.5 (1pt) Leeds v Man Utd
TAMWORTH (2pts) v Forest Green
An outlay of 5pts on the night, check back this evening for a review of the selections.
Goals Should Flow in TV Game
There are plenty of reasons to be expecting goals as Manchester United travel to Elland Road take on rivals Leeds in the Carling Cup tonight. United will of course ring the changes for the Carling Cup, but the immense depth of their squad means that they can still field a starting line-up that many teams in the Premiership would relish. In real terms, that means that both Michael Owen and Dimitar Berbatov may be in line for a chance to start, alongside more youngsters who will be desperate to impress Sir Alex. Indeed, the fantastic start that the Champions have made to the new season will only increase the importance of this game for those players that are chosen to play, as competition for places is extremely fierce at the club and no chance to impress can be turned down or taken for granted.
Leeds, meanwhile, will be desperate to channel the spirit of two years ago when they travelled to Old Trafford to win 1-0 in the third round of the FA Cup. That fact may ensure that Sir Alex is able to drill his squad into line, with the evidence clear that Leeds will never take it easy against their bitter rivals. However, this match will not define Leeds’ season whether they win or lose, and Simon Grayson will already have one and a half eyes on their Friday night trip to Brighton. That is not to say that this game is of little importance to Leeds, but some element of squad rotation may be forced upon the home side if there are any niggles picked up or if the game heads towards extra-time.
The bookmakers are hardly taking any chances on Manchester United and that is no surprise given their fiery start to the season. However, 4/7 on the visitors winning is just too short for an outlay on any away team in the Carling Cup, especially in the light of the feelings between these two clubs. Of more interest are goals bets, given that Leeds have yet to keep a clean sheet this season and have themselves only failed to score in one game. Only one Leeds game this season has had less than three goals, and five times games involving Leeds have had four goals or more. Their last Carling Cup home game saw Leeds defeat Bradford 3-2, while they were 2-1 winners away at Doncaster in another Yorkshire derby.
Manchester United have of course been in the goals themselves plenty this season. Their 8-2 hammering of Arsenal will go into folk lore, but a 5-0 win at Bolton was itself quite special. However, given the probable change of line-up for tonight, of more relevance may be United’s exploits in the Carling Cup last season. All three games in which United played saw at least four goals, as they won 5-2 at Scunthorpe, beat Wolves 3-2 and lost 4-0 at West Ham. There is no reason not to expect goals tonight, and with that in mind, take the line above the normal overs and expect over 3.5 goals at Elland Road.
Suggestion:
Leeds United v Manchester United: 1pt Over 3.5 goals @ 6/5 (Ladbrokes) (2.38 on Betfair)
Cagey Encounter Expected
Dean Holdsworth has called on Aldershot fans to create a cup-final atmosphere tonight ahead of the visit of Rochdale in the Carling Cup. Since reforming, Aldershot have never reached this stage of the competition and the prospect of a place in the last 16 has certainly captured the minds of many at the club. It may be an ever more sweet achievement for Aldershot if they achieve it considering their difficult road to this stage – the ‘shots came back from 1-0 down to win at West Ham, before overcoming Carlisle 2-0 at home in round two.
The home side have no injury or suspension concerns and should be able to field a full strength line-up that Holdsworth is still hoping to push further. Since winning at West Ham in round one, Aldershot have not been beaten. On that run, they have secured two more home wins and a home draw, while they have secured six points from six in their last two matches – a 2-0 win at Hereford followed by a 1-0 win at Bristol Rovers. This should be keeping morale very high and with confidence brimming the hosts will present a real challenge tonight.
As for Rochdale, who are making the long journey south, they come into the contest on the back of frustrating 3-2 home loss against Charlton in a game where they will have been frustrated not to earn at least a point. However, while they may not have claimed the scalp of the ‘big boys’ in their own division, ‘dale have their own Carling Cup scalp to rival that of Aldershot’s. After an extra time win at home against Chesterfield in round one, Rochdale were 2-0 winners at QPR in round two, although Neil Warnock was publically hardly disappointed to lose that particular contest. Despite some disappointing away form in the league (losing at Sheffield Wednesday, Stevenage and Oldham), Rochdale appeared to strike a better vain of form when winning 4-2 at rivals Bury and defeating Scunthorpe 1-0 at Spotland. The performance against Charlton should keep belief around the club that they have turned a corner, and the only change forced upon the visitors tonight is in goal as on-loan Blackburn goalkeeper Jake Keane will be replaced by David Lucas.
As an away fan when Rushden and Diamonds made it to the Setanta Shield Final against Aldershot at the Recreation Ground, I can vouch first hand for the kind of ‘cup final’ atmosphere that Rochdale will face tonight. However, their 4-2 win at Bury has shown that this squad can cope with big atmospheres, and both of these sides have already defeated higher league opposition away from home in the Carling Cup this season. However, the prize of a fourth round place is a serious one for both clubs given their relative stature, and ultimately that fact and the atmosphere may lead to a tight contest.
Aldershot have not had more than 2 goals in a game since their victory at West Ham and only twice all season, neither of those games being at home. That run should be extended tonight, and unders is certainly the value call in this contest.
SUGGESTION:
Aldershot v Rochdale: 1pt UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ Evens (William Hill and various)
Changes aplenty for Dons
There are plenty of fascinating Carling Cup ties tonight and we begin with the matchup at Turf Moor. MK Dons, 4th placed in League One, head to Burnley with their minds focussed on another cup scalp after their demolition of Norwich in the last round. Milton Keynes stunned their Premiership opponents with a 4-0 away win, and have won five of their six away games this season. Their only loss came in their last away trip when they defeated 3-1 by Sheffield Wednesday.
However, manager Karl Robinson will likely have to field a side that is much changed tonight as he travels to Turf Moor with a number of reserves and academy players expected to feature. Defender Gary MacKenzie is suspended after what Robinson described as a “stupid” off the ball sending off against Bournemouth on Saturday as the Dons were held to a 1-1 draw at home.
As for Eddie Howe’s Burnley, they will be looking to regain some form after two consecutive losses in the Championship. Burnley were beaten 2-1 at Peterborough on Saturday, a result that came on the heels of a 2-0 home defeat against Middlesbrough. Indeed, Burnley’s home form has hardly been stellar this season – they have won just two of five home league games, and both of those were extra time successes against lower league opposition (6-3 v Burton Albion, 3-2 v Barnet). Burnley have also failed to keep a single clean sheet this season, but Howe has maintained that performances have been better than results have suggested and is keen to make the Carling Cup a catalyst to more success in the league.
Even money on a home win would not appeal in the slightest if you take the form of these two sides this season at face value. However, given the changes to the MK Dons side that have been forced upon Karl Robinson for tonight, Burnley should have enough to see off their high-flying League One opponents. Despite failing to record 90 minute victories against League Two opposition at home twice already this season, reaching the 4th round will provide further motivation for Burnley than may have been present in those earlier round contests, and with the need to claim a first home win in normal time on the minds of individuals at the club, this will likely be the right night to achieve that feet.
Suggestion:
BURNLEY 1pt win @ Evens (William Hill and various)
Thursday, 11 August 2011
Thursday Result
No goals at Hillsborough as Sheffield Wednesday and Blackpool head into extra-time in a deadlock. That, of course, spells doom for the over 2.5 goals selection from earlier. Still, it was perhaps a speculative half a point offering for the game and does not hit the overall profit gained so far too badly. Clearly, the Megson affect may have been bigger than planned!*
*I must note I did not watch the game! I was busy watching Wellingborough Whitworths defeat AFC Rushden & Diamonds 3-0 in a pre-season friendly. After suffering defeat via the same scoreline on Saturday, this was an improved Diamonds performance. 2-0 down at half-time to two excellent finishes, Diamonds had much more of the play in the second half, hitting the post and forcing a good save from the home goalkeeper. The third Whitworths goal came from virtually the last kick of the match and was something of a fluke.
Summary of BetsOne loser: Sheffield Wednesday v Blackpool - Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11 (0.5 pts)
TOTAL LOSS: 0.5 points
TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 4.56 points
*I must note I did not watch the game! I was busy watching Wellingborough Whitworths defeat AFC Rushden & Diamonds 3-0 in a pre-season friendly. After suffering defeat via the same scoreline on Saturday, this was an improved Diamonds performance. 2-0 down at half-time to two excellent finishes, Diamonds had much more of the play in the second half, hitting the post and forcing a good save from the home goalkeeper. The third Whitworths goal came from virtually the last kick of the match and was something of a fluke.
Summary of BetsOne loser: Sheffield Wednesday v Blackpool - Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11 (0.5 pts)
TOTAL LOSS: 0.5 points
TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 4.56 points
Sheffield Wednesday v Blackpool
You know that the football season is back in full-swing when there is a live contest on the Sky Sports Thursday night schedule, and the cameras held to Hillsborough tonight in the anticipation of goals between Sheffield Wednesday and Blackpool.
The lineups of both teams will be much changed from their respective season openers at the weekend, which makes the game a very tricky prospect from a betting point of view. Blackpool are without goalkeeper Matt Gilks, as well as Stephen Crainey and Craig Cathcart who played in the international games yesterday. Sheffield Wednesday meanwhile are unlikely to give a debut to new signing Chris O'Grady, but striker Danny Uchechi could start after completing a loan move to the club yesterday. (*editorial note - Danny Uchechi was very good for Rushden and Diamonds on Football Manager...*)
The best indication to Blackpool's approach could come from their efforts under Holloway in this competition over the last two seasons. A 4-3 extra-time loss to Milton Keynes last season certainly indicates that Holloway's 'go for goals' approach carries over to the League Cup, and in the season before that Blackpool progressed to round three in games that went over 2.5 goals on all three occasions (2-1 win at Crewe, 4-1 win v Wigan and 4-3 loss at Stoke).
Sheffield Wednesday were not exactly prolific in a 1-0 win over Bury at home in the first round last season, and with no O'Grady the Owls will lineup without their preferred strikeforce. The 2-0 win over Rochdale would have pleased Megson, whose defensive approach is perhaps the antithesis of Holloway, in that the Owls held on for a clean sheet. However, keeping Blackpool out may not be so easy tonight.
A difficult call, and with a host of changes none of the prices appeal on the outright markets. 10/11 on over 2.5 goals is perhaps a little slim, but for those looking for a bet tonight, it is never a bad idea to have goals on your side in a Blackpool match, especially in the League Cup where extra-time will want to be avoided if possible.
SUGGESTION:
Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11 @ Coral (0.5pts)
The lineups of both teams will be much changed from their respective season openers at the weekend, which makes the game a very tricky prospect from a betting point of view. Blackpool are without goalkeeper Matt Gilks, as well as Stephen Crainey and Craig Cathcart who played in the international games yesterday. Sheffield Wednesday meanwhile are unlikely to give a debut to new signing Chris O'Grady, but striker Danny Uchechi could start after completing a loan move to the club yesterday. (*editorial note - Danny Uchechi was very good for Rushden and Diamonds on Football Manager...*)
The best indication to Blackpool's approach could come from their efforts under Holloway in this competition over the last two seasons. A 4-3 extra-time loss to Milton Keynes last season certainly indicates that Holloway's 'go for goals' approach carries over to the League Cup, and in the season before that Blackpool progressed to round three in games that went over 2.5 goals on all three occasions (2-1 win at Crewe, 4-1 win v Wigan and 4-3 loss at Stoke).
Sheffield Wednesday were not exactly prolific in a 1-0 win over Bury at home in the first round last season, and with no O'Grady the Owls will lineup without their preferred strikeforce. The 2-0 win over Rochdale would have pleased Megson, whose defensive approach is perhaps the antithesis of Holloway, in that the Owls held on for a clean sheet. However, keeping Blackpool out may not be so easy tonight.
A difficult call, and with a host of changes none of the prices appeal on the outright markets. 10/11 on over 2.5 goals is perhaps a little slim, but for those looking for a bet tonight, it is never a bad idea to have goals on your side in a Blackpool match, especially in the League Cup where extra-time will want to be avoided if possible.
SUGGESTION:
Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11 @ Coral (0.5pts)
Wednesday, 10 August 2011
Wednesday Review
Oxford and Cardiff have not even reached half time, but the earlier tip is already weighed in. Both teams have scored as it is now 1-1, Simon Clist equalising for Oxford after the visitors took the lead.
Summary of Bets
One winner: Oxford United v Cardiff City - Both teams to score (1-1 at time of post) @ 5/6
TOTAL PROFIT: .83 points based on 1pt stake
TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 5.06 points
Summary of Bets
One winner: Oxford United v Cardiff City - Both teams to score (1-1 at time of post) @ 5/6
TOTAL PROFIT: .83 points based on 1pt stake
TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 5.06 points
Oxford v Cardiff
Only one match in the Carling Cup tonight as a result of the postponment of the game in Bristol, and the match between Oxford United and Cardiff City at the Kassam Stadium is a tough one to call.
Both teams started the season with games that finished 1-0, but while Cardiff were causing a minor upset thanks to a late Kenny Miller goal against West Ham, Oxford suffered an opening day defeat against Rotherham up in Yorkshire. Back at home for the first competitive game of the season, Oxford should lineup with much the same side, possibly with the addition of Lewis Guy, signed on loan from Milton Keynes.
Cardiff meanwhile are set to be much changed as a result of the internationals taking place this week. Sunday's hero Kenny Miller is away with Scotland, while the influential Rob Earnshaw and Kevin McNaughton will also be missing. However, Stephen McPhail may return from injury and Gestede, who came of the bench on Sunday, may be in for start.
Several Championship sides felt the pain of losing players to international duty last night, none more so than Hull who were tipped here and lost 2-0 at home to Macclesfield. With that in mind, even at a best price 5/4, backing Cardiff does not appeal against an Oxford United side that have the talent to make real progress in League 2. In James Contestable and Lewis Guy the U's have the prowess to cause the visitors plenty of problems, but the 5/2 about the hosts also seems about right and does not scream value.
In the end, even with Miller and Earnshaw missing for Cardiff, the best bet on offer looks to be 'Both to score' at a seemingly generous 5/6 at Stan James. Oxford have the capability to score as mentioned above, while Cardiff themselves will expect to get on the scoresheet against the lower opposition. In a game where all three results look correctly priced up, it seems best to sit back and cheer for goals on this occassion.
Suggestion:
1pt 'Both teams to score' @ 5/6 @ Stan James
Both teams started the season with games that finished 1-0, but while Cardiff were causing a minor upset thanks to a late Kenny Miller goal against West Ham, Oxford suffered an opening day defeat against Rotherham up in Yorkshire. Back at home for the first competitive game of the season, Oxford should lineup with much the same side, possibly with the addition of Lewis Guy, signed on loan from Milton Keynes.
Cardiff meanwhile are set to be much changed as a result of the internationals taking place this week. Sunday's hero Kenny Miller is away with Scotland, while the influential Rob Earnshaw and Kevin McNaughton will also be missing. However, Stephen McPhail may return from injury and Gestede, who came of the bench on Sunday, may be in for start.
Several Championship sides felt the pain of losing players to international duty last night, none more so than Hull who were tipped here and lost 2-0 at home to Macclesfield. With that in mind, even at a best price 5/4, backing Cardiff does not appeal against an Oxford United side that have the talent to make real progress in League 2. In James Contestable and Lewis Guy the U's have the prowess to cause the visitors plenty of problems, but the 5/2 about the hosts also seems about right and does not scream value.
In the end, even with Miller and Earnshaw missing for Cardiff, the best bet on offer looks to be 'Both to score' at a seemingly generous 5/6 at Stan James. Oxford have the capability to score as mentioned above, while Cardiff themselves will expect to get on the scoresheet against the lower opposition. In a game where all three results look correctly priced up, it seems best to sit back and cheer for goals on this occassion.
Suggestion:
1pt 'Both teams to score' @ 5/6 @ Stan James
Tuesday, 9 August 2011
Tuesday Review
Summary of Bets:
Two wins - Accrington Stanley 0-2 Scunthorpe United (7/5)
Derby County 2-3 Shrewsbury Town (5/1)
Two losses - Hull City (-1) 0-2 Macclesfield Town
Stevenage 2-2 Peterborough United
Overall, a very pleasing night! Scunthorpe did the job in the second half at Accrington, but the stars were certainly Shrewsbury who delivered at 5/1. Even those of us who fancied them to do well would have been shocked by their early 3-0 lead, and despite something of a Derby fightback, Shrewsbury held on for the 3-2 win.
Peterborough threw away two leads at Stevenage to cost a success there, but my one blunder was Hull City. I clearly under-estimated the affect of losing key players to international duty and over-estimated their desire to make up for their opening night home defeat against Blackpool.
Elsewhere, I was secretly pleased to see Barnsley, Nottingham Forest and Portsmouth fail to deliver at short-odds and vindicate my avoidance policy, while Bury delivered a 3-1 win against Coventry in a game where some may have been tempted in by a respectable price on the home win.
TOTAL PROFIT: 6.4 points based on 1pt level stakes across all selections
TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 4.23 points
Two wins - Accrington Stanley 0-2 Scunthorpe United (7/5)
Derby County 2-3 Shrewsbury Town (5/1)
Two losses - Hull City (-1) 0-2 Macclesfield Town
Stevenage 2-2 Peterborough United
Overall, a very pleasing night! Scunthorpe did the job in the second half at Accrington, but the stars were certainly Shrewsbury who delivered at 5/1. Even those of us who fancied them to do well would have been shocked by their early 3-0 lead, and despite something of a Derby fightback, Shrewsbury held on for the 3-2 win.
Peterborough threw away two leads at Stevenage to cost a success there, but my one blunder was Hull City. I clearly under-estimated the affect of losing key players to international duty and over-estimated their desire to make up for their opening night home defeat against Blackpool.
Elsewhere, I was secretly pleased to see Barnsley, Nottingham Forest and Portsmouth fail to deliver at short-odds and vindicate my avoidance policy, while Bury delivered a 3-1 win against Coventry in a game where some may have been tempted in by a respectable price on the home win.
TOTAL PROFIT: 6.4 points based on 1pt level stakes across all selections
TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 4.23 points
Tuesday Selections
Due the fact that I am moving house this week, there has been not a great deal of time for the reasoning behind these selections - but here are the Tuesday night Carling Cup suggestions.
Accrington Stanley v SCUNTHORPE @ 7/5 @ VC, Sportingbet, Coral, 32Red
Scunthorpe have an awful record in the League Cup, losing 22 of 24 away ties and finishing with elimination in the first round in 12 of the last 18 seasons. However, Scunthorpe played very well by all accounts against Wycombe on Saturday en route to a 1-1 draw, while Accrington were held at home against Aldershot. With similar lineups expected to take to the field for both sides tonight, Scunthorpe are a touch of value at 7/5 to outshine their League 2 opponents.
Derby County v SHREWSBURY @ 5/1 @ Stan James
Another two teams that have a record in this competition that hardly inspires, but Shrewsbury can add to Derby's failures against League 2 opposition with an upset at Pride Park. Shrewsbury were denied victory over Plymouth by a 90th minute goal on Saturday, but at 5/1 they represent value in this encounter.
Stevenage v PETERBOROUGH @ 6/4 @ various
Stevenage held Exeter at the Lamex Stadium (Broadhall Way) on Saturday, but they should be outclassed by Peterborough even if Darren Ferguson chooses to rotate some of his squad. Posh's attacking style should see them through without too much fuss against Graham Westley's physical side.
HULL CITY -1 v Macclesfield @ 5/7 @ Bodog
The only trustwothy short-priced handicap bet of the night should be Hull against Macclefield of League 2. Hull were undeservedly booed after an excellent display by Blackpool in their 1-0 win on Friday night, and will be desperate to get back into a winning mode tonight in front of their own fans. Macclesfield have lost 11 of 12 twelve away matches in this competition, and while Hull are without six players on international duty, Macclesfield's won injury problems temper the possible affect of squad changes.
Accrington Stanley v SCUNTHORPE @ 7/5 @ VC, Sportingbet, Coral, 32Red
Scunthorpe have an awful record in the League Cup, losing 22 of 24 away ties and finishing with elimination in the first round in 12 of the last 18 seasons. However, Scunthorpe played very well by all accounts against Wycombe on Saturday en route to a 1-1 draw, while Accrington were held at home against Aldershot. With similar lineups expected to take to the field for both sides tonight, Scunthorpe are a touch of value at 7/5 to outshine their League 2 opponents.
Derby County v SHREWSBURY @ 5/1 @ Stan James
Another two teams that have a record in this competition that hardly inspires, but Shrewsbury can add to Derby's failures against League 2 opposition with an upset at Pride Park. Shrewsbury were denied victory over Plymouth by a 90th minute goal on Saturday, but at 5/1 they represent value in this encounter.
Stevenage v PETERBOROUGH @ 6/4 @ various
Stevenage held Exeter at the Lamex Stadium (Broadhall Way) on Saturday, but they should be outclassed by Peterborough even if Darren Ferguson chooses to rotate some of his squad. Posh's attacking style should see them through without too much fuss against Graham Westley's physical side.
HULL CITY -1 v Macclesfield @ 5/7 @ Bodog
The only trustwothy short-priced handicap bet of the night should be Hull against Macclefield of League 2. Hull were undeservedly booed after an excellent display by Blackpool in their 1-0 win on Friday night, and will be desperate to get back into a winning mode tonight in front of their own fans. Macclesfield have lost 11 of 12 twelve away matches in this competition, and while Hull are without six players on international duty, Macclesfield's won injury problems temper the possible affect of squad changes.
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