Portsmouth v Peterborough Tip

Peterborough United have rightly earned a reputation as one of the more entertaining sides in the country, but they could be a part of a low scoring game on the south coast this evening.

Darren Ferguson’s Posh were on many a punters’ radar as a team that could be trusted to bring home bets on over 2.5 goals most weeks, and they began the season securing those bets without fail in the first five games in league and cup. That run was capped by an amazing 7-1 thumping of Ipswich Town at Loftus Road, but since then, the goals have started to show signs of drying up. In Peterborough’s next five matches, just one has involved three goals or more – a 2-1 win at home against Burnley. Meanwhile, Posh have suffered two 2-0 defeats (v Middlesbrough, @ Brighton) and two 1-0 defeats (v Hull and @ West Ham).

Add to those stats the potentially long-term absence of former Rushden and Diamonds man Lee Tomlin after he picked up an ankle injury at Upon Park on Saturday, and there is good reason to begin considering the prospect that under 2.5 goals may be being over-priced in Peterborough games.

Posh also head to face the under 2.5 kings on Tuesday night, in Portsmouth. Pompy defeated Blackpool 1-0 with a 9^th minute goal on Saturday – much my frustration – a score that continued a run of five consecutive home games with under 2.5 goals. Indeed, only an opening day 2-2 draw at Middlesbrough and a 4-3 loss at West Ham have seen Portsmouth be involved in games with more than two goals. The number of bookings and red cards picked up by Portsmouth this season also suggests a physical, rather than beautiful, style of football is being played at Fratton Park and that could lead to another low scoring encounter tonight. Luke Varney (suspension) and Dave Kitson are also out, meaning more problems for the hosts upfront.

Suggestion:

Portsmouth v Peterborough – Under 2.5 goals 2pts @ Evens (general)

Cagey Encounter Expected

Dean Holdsworth has called on Aldershot fans to create a cup-final atmosphere tonight ahead of the visit of Rochdale in the Carling Cup. Since reforming, Aldershot have never reached this stage of the competition and the prospect of a place in the last 16 has certainly captured the minds of many at the club. It may be an ever more sweet achievement for Aldershot if they achieve it considering their difficult road to this stage – the ‘shots came back from 1-0 down to win at West Ham, before overcoming Carlisle 2-0 at home in round two.

The home side have no injury or suspension concerns and should be able to field a full strength line-up that Holdsworth is still hoping to push further. Since winning at West Ham in round one, Aldershot have not been beaten. On that run, they have secured two more home wins and a home draw, while they have secured six points from six in their last two matches – a 2-0 win at Hereford followed by a 1-0 win at Bristol Rovers. This should be keeping morale very high and with confidence brimming the hosts will present a real challenge tonight.

As for Rochdale, who are making the long journey south, they come into the contest on the back of frustrating 3-2 home loss against Charlton in a game where they will have been frustrated not to earn at least a point. However, while they may not have claimed the scalp of the ‘big boys’ in their own division, ‘dale have their own Carling Cup scalp to rival that of Aldershot’s. After an extra time win at home against Chesterfield in round one, Rochdale were 2-0 winners at QPR in round two, although Neil Warnock was publically hardly disappointed to lose that particular contest. Despite some disappointing away form in the league (losing at Sheffield Wednesday, Stevenage and Oldham), Rochdale appeared to strike a better vain of form when winning 4-2 at rivals Bury and defeating Scunthorpe 1-0 at Spotland. The performance against Charlton should keep belief around the club that they have turned a corner, and the only change forced upon the visitors tonight is in goal as on-loan Blackburn goalkeeper Jake Keane will be replaced by David Lucas.

As an away fan when Rushden and Diamonds made it to the Setanta Shield Final against Aldershot at the Recreation Ground, I can vouch first hand for the kind of ‘cup final’ atmosphere that Rochdale will face tonight. However, their 4-2 win at Bury has shown that this squad can cope with big atmospheres, and both of these sides have already defeated higher league opposition away from home in the Carling Cup this season. However, the prize of a fourth round place is a serious one for both clubs given their relative stature, and ultimately that fact and the atmosphere may lead to a tight contest.

Aldershot have not had more than 2 goals in a game since their victory at West Ham and only twice all season, neither of those games being at home. That run should be extended tonight, and unders is certainly the value call in this contest.

SUGGESTION:

Aldershot v Rochdale: 1pt UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ Evens (William Hill and various)