Saturday Selections

West Brom v Manchester United - No Bet

Manchester City v Blackpool - No Bet

Stoke v EVERTON (DNB)

COVENTRY v Ipswich

Preston v DERBY DNB

Grimsby v MANSFIELD DNB

Plenty of trust in away teams of the draw-no-bet variety as Everton head to Stoke wrongly priced as outsiders of two. Mansfield can defeat a rusty Grimsby side who haven't played in the league for a month, while Derby can heap more misery on Preston in spite of their own dreadful form.

Coventry are the only team selected to win outright, as they should continue to beat the poor sides in the Championship at home as a surprisingly big price.

Meanwhile, short-priced favourites in Manchester are best avoided given the struggles of United away from home and City's all to easily forgotten inconsistency.

Mansfield to make use of Grimsby rust

MANSFIELD Town put a beating on Cambridge United in their last match, and they represent good value to walk away from Grimsby with a win on Saturday.

Playing only their second game since November at the Abbey Stadium during the week, Mansfield hit five goals to take all three points back up north with them. That 5-1 win followed up a 5-0 win in the FA Trophy away at Worksop, and the Stags climb to become playoff challengers may show that they have finally adapted to life outside of the football league. Despite having on-going issues with their ground, which now appear to have been finally resolved, Mansfield lay in 6^th place in the Conference table.

Mansfield’s away form during the season has not, however, been all that fantastic. Despite a recent win at Kettering and a creditable draw at Wrexham, the Stags have suffered away defeats at Fleetwood, Newport, Luton, Rushden and Forest Green – however, only the latter two sides are not in the playoff places, and Rushden were playoff finalists last season.

As for Grimsby, their indifferent run of form has made it something of a bumpy journey down into non-league football. Their last home match was a 1-1 draw against Barrow, and a 3-0 win at Hayes and Yeading represents the side’s only success in their last seven league games. It has been a run with a host of draws – against Forest Green, Southport, Eastbourne and Cambridge – while Grimsby also lost to Kidderminster 3-2 away from home.

Of more of a concern for the home fans, however, should be that fact that Grimsby have not played a league game since November 20^th. Anyone who saw Liverpool in midweek must be acutely aware of the rust that may potentially affect the players – and Mansfield’s midweek success at Cambridge will have blown away any potential cobwebs for the visitors.

Neither side has any major injury concerns heading into the match, but Mansfield’s fresh legs, coupled with their good form and Grimsby’s own indifferent performances of late in the league, makes the 13/8 about Mansfield draw-no-net look too big.

SUGGESTION;

Mansfield DNB (13/8 @ Skybet)

Derby to take advantage of Preston

DERBY County fans must still be reeling after their 5-2 hammering at the City Ground during the week against fierce rivals Nottingham Forest, but their run of five straight defeats should end against Preston on Saturday.

Derby head to Deepdale in the midst of a shocking run of form, with four straight away defeats to add to their overall run of five straight league defeats. After a strong start to the season, Nigel Clough knows that he needs to quickly steady to ship to keep alive any promotion hopes for his side. The 5-2 thrashing at Nottm Forest came after losses to Reading and Norwich at home, as well as Bristol City and Burnley away. However, the Rams have won at Ipswich, Doncaster and Leeds this season, as well as taking draws away from Barnsley and Swansea. Hardly superb form for Derby it must be said, but with the return of (loathsome) captain Robbie Savage, the Rams have the quality to take advantage of struggling Preston.

North End sacked manager Darren Ferguson during the week, but as if the turmoil of losing a manager wouldn’t be enough for the side to deal with ahead of this match, Preston have lost five potential starters for this contest. Michael Tounge and Danny Pugh have both ended their loan spells and returned to Stoke, while Josh King and Ritchie de Laet have returned to Manchester United. Leon Cort has also finished up his loan spell with the team bottom of the table. Preston were struggling even before the upheaval and the loss of players, having been defeated 3-1 by Middlesbrough at home last week. That result did end a decent run of form for the hosts, beating Ipswich and earning draws against Millwall and Cardiff, but the Ipswich victory was their only success since late October.

The only ‘positive’ for Preston is that the 21-points they have dropped from winning positions is the highest in the league – showing their ability to get ahead in games, but given the turmoil around the club at the moment, Derby have every chance to get into, and keep hold of, their own winning position. It is Derby’s own away form that is also a concern, and that makes the 10/11 about Derby draw-no-bet more appealing than the straight 7/4 about an away win.

SUGGESTION:

Derby DNB (10/11 @ various)

Perfect New Year for Coventry

COVENTRY City lost their final three matches of 2010, but they have the perfect remedy to poor form, as they host struggling Ipswich to begin 2011.

Home defeats to leaders QPR, Norwich and Cardiff have cooled the Sky Blues early season progress, but there is no doubting the quality of the three sides that Coventry have fallen too. Aidy Boothroyd will have been disappointed by those defeats, but his side have rarely failed to capitalise on opportunities against sides further down the Championship table. Coventry’s last win came with a 1-0 home success over Middlesbrough back at the start of December, a result preceded by wins over Scunthorpe and Burnley. Indeed, while Coventry have hardly made the Ricoh Arena a fortress, their results show an interesting pattern. They have suffered defeats against QPR (leaders), Norwich (promotion chasers), Leeds (promotion chasers), Cardiff (promotion chasers) and Preston (relegation candidates). Meanwhile, Coventry have dispatched Middlesbrough (bottom end of the table), Burnley (mid-table), Barnsley (mid-table), Doncaster (mid-table), Derby (mid-table) and Portsmouth (mid-table). Their only draw was a respectable 1-1 affair with Leicester, and the Preston result aside, Coventry have had their way with all but the best at the Ricoh.

As for Ipswich, a surprising 3-0 trouncing of Leicester in the snow at Portman Road cannot hide their obvious deficiencies under Roy Keane. Town have lost their last three away matches, including a 1-0 loss at Preston and a 4-1 defeat against local rivals Norwich. They did pick up a 2-1 win at Sheffield United in November, but the Blades have had their own home issues this season. That positive result did not herald the turning of the corner for the Tractor Boys as they lost their next two home games – 2-0 against Derby and 3-1 against Barnsley. There is little reason to expect something different to follow their win against Leicester.

Coventry also got the better of Ipswich at Portman Road, winning 2-1 earlier in the season. Shane O’Connor will also be absent for the visitors after a good performance against Leicester, while Coventry will have to rely on David Bell and Clive Platt with midfielders McSheffrey and Gunnarsson missing out. However, despite those absentees, the 11/8 available on a home win is too big to resist.

SUGGESTION:

Coventry WIN (11/8 @ VC)

Everton value at Stoke

EVERTON head to the Britannia Stadium on New Year’s Day, and the Toffees away form stands them in good stead to walk away with at least a point.

David Moyes’ side could move above their hosts on Saturday with a win, and there is good value in backing the visitors in the draw-no-bet market at 20/19. Everton have shown a real ability to draw games this season, four of their last six games have finished level, but Everton also have shown that they are a very difficult side to beat. In their last eight Premier League away games, Everton are unbeaten. They drew 1-1 at West Ham last time out in a fairly drab affair (where they still had the better chances), but picked up a 2-1 win at Manchester City, drew 1-1 at Chelsea, 2-2 at Sunderland who themselves  had a vaunted home record, 2-2 at Blackpool, 1-1 at Spurs, won 2-0 at Birmingham and drew 0-0 at Fulham.

Stoke, meanwhile, are going through a rough patch. After winning at Blackburn 2-0, with the hosts playing their first game without Sam Allardyce, Stoke were beaten 2-0 at home by Fulham. That marked a second consecutive home loss, after a 1-0 defeat against Blackpool. Indeed, while Stoke have a reputation for being very difficult to beat at home, they have lost four games on their own turf this season – Manchester United and Tottenham also taking three points away with them. Indeed, Tony Pulis’ team have only beaten Aston Villa (2-1), Blackburn (1-0), Birmingham (3-2) and Liverpool (2-0) at home in the current campaign.

Matthew Etherington could also be a big miss for the hosts if he is unable to make a second start in close succession, while Robert Huth misses the game through suspension – something that can only help Everton’s attacking line. Tim Cahill makes his last appearance before departing for the Asia Cup, and his presence could be key in this contest.

With the draw out of the equation, anything above Evens is a standout bet on Everton, and they should not be turned down at 20/19 with Corals – it is hard to see Everton leaving with nothing, even if Stoke do avoid a third straight home defeat.

SUGGESTION:

Everton DNB (20/19 @ Corals)

Avoid the Manchester favourites

THE two Manchester clubs both stand atop the Premier League as we head into 2011, but neither should be backed to take victory on New Year’s Day.

Manchester United travel to West Brom on the back of a 1-1 draw against Birmingham, a result that means they have only one victory in eight away Premier League games this season. While their 0-0 draw at the City of Manchester Stadium may have been respectable, United have also failed to win at Fulham (2-2), Everton (3-3), Bolton (2-2), Sunderland (0-0) and Aston Villa (2-2). Sir Alex also saw his side beaten 4-0 at West Ham in the Carling Cup, and United’s traditional ability to score late goals and steal victories seems to have been replaced by an inability to kill games off. That inability also surfaced in United’s home game against West Brom, when the Old Trafford crowd watched their side give away a 2-0 lead and leave with just a single point against the Baggies.

West Brom are in no great run of form themselves however, having lost seven of their last ten Premier League games. The Baggies were deservedly beaten 3-1 at home by Blackburn during the week, and they suffered defeats at Bolton and Aston Villa prior to that result. However, West Brom can play some excellent football, and on their day are a danger to any team. It was only just over a month ago that West Brom won 4-1 at Everton, and they soon followed that up with a convincing 3-1 win over Newcastle.

United should have enough to overcome West Brom, but at a best price of 4/7 there are plenty of other better prices out there on New Year’s Day. United are not the trusted travellers that they once were.

As for Manchester City, there will be many a punter who views City as sure-things heading into a home contest against Blackpool. However, a best price of 3/10 reflects the confidence in the air about a home win, and is one that again should be left on the table. Many people seem to forgotten City’s 2-1 home defeat to Everton just a few weeks ago after convincing wins at Newcastle and against Aston Villa at home, but City’s inconsistency is still something to be very aware of. At the start of November, City drew 0-0 at home with Birmingham, and while Blackpool are a very different prospect to the Blues, a standout result like that draw cannot be completely written off.

Blackpool are unbeaten in five straight Premier League games, their last loss coming after Aston Villa snatched a last minute winner to claim a 3-2 success at Villa Park. Indeed, Ian Holloway’s men went to Sunderland in their last match, and while many will suggest the final result was fortunate, they ended the Black Cats magnificent home unbeaten run with a 2-0 victory. Those who thought Blackpool would be basement dwellers this season have been silenced thus far with the side currently in 8^th position in the league. Captain Charlie Adam also returns for this match, after missing the game at Sunderland through suspension.

At 3/10, the risk verses reward on Manchester City simply does not make sense. Although Blackpool did receive hidings at Arsenal and Chelsea, their result at Sunderland shows the quality that the visitors have. Ultimately, it cannot be ignored that this game does place a so-called team of individuals against a team with tremendous spirit, and City did need a late Tevez goal to steal a 3-2 win at Bloomfield Road in October. City should win again, but don’t be too surprised by a surprise result on Saturday.

SUGGESTIONS:

No Bets

Update - Wednesday Selections

Chelsea 1-0 Bolton

Liverpool 0-1 Wolves

Wigan 2-2 Arsenal

It is safe to say that this was the firstly genuinely awful night of tipping since the creation of this blog. The only one of the favourites to win last night were Chelsea, who scored a lone second half goal to beat Bolton - while 'no bet' may still have been a sensible tip it is still jarring to see the Blues as the only short-priced victors on the night.

As for Liverpool, who were tipped outright at 1/3 and on the handicap to beat Wolves, Roy Hodgson must be a nervous man this morning. The weeks without football clearly upset the Reds rhythm, and their constant attempts at a quick passing game were nearly always thwarted by a very effective Wolves defensive performance. In the end, Wolves were value not only for their 1-0 win, but for a good deal more.

As for Arsenal, who were tipped for the half-time/full-time double result, they got half of their work done. After falling behind to an early penalty, the Gunners were 2-1 ahead at the break and on course to make good the bet at 29/20. However, despite the home team being reduced to ten men, Arsenal were unable to hold on and conceded an equaliser with just 9 minutes to play. Better to lose money on an Arsenal win at 29/20 than 8/15 I suppose, but a loss nonetheless on a very poor evening for the blog.

Overall, now 1/4 (25%) on the blog this week.

Wednesday Night Selections

ARSENAL HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME @ Wigan

LIVERPOOL v Wolves

LIVERPOOL -1 v Wolves

Chelsea v Bolton NO BET

Not a complete whitewash for the 'big boys' being predicted tonight, but Arsenal and Liverpool should continue their decent form (Liverpool's home form at least) against opponents at the bottom end of the table.

Chelsea are no value at 1/3 against Bolton given their recent struggles.

Elsewhere, here are my points to note - these are not tips:

Nottingham Forest look very capable of handing bitter rivals Derby a 5th straight league defeat tonight, with the Rams still missing captain Robbie Savage. Forest have been dominant at home this season and are unbeaten at the City Ground. However, Nigel Clough has a good record against Forest in his time as Derby manager, and trusting Forest at odds on in a local derby is not something I can get behind. Forest are the more likely winners, but don't be surprised if Derby manage to walk away with a point or more.

Trust in Liverpool not misplaced

LIVERPOOL’s last game was 14 days ago when they stumbled to a 0-0 draw against FC Utrecht in the Europa League, but they should be able to return to winning ways against Wolves in the television game tonight.

The Reds certainly have not turned any corners in another disappointing season under their new manager Roy Hodgson, as highlighted by their 3-1 defeat at Newcastle in their last Premier League contest. However, their home form has been far better than their efforts on the road. Since a shocking home defeat to Blackpool at the start of November, the Reds have taken 12 points from a possible 12 at Anfield. They defeated Blackburn 2-1, Chelsea 2-0, West Ham 3-0 and Aston Villa 3-0. Even that victory over Chelsea does not now seem quite so impressive given the Blues poor run of recent form, but their opponents tonight would struggle to rank as more difficult than any of the opponents mentioned above. Indeed, Wolves have now slipped two-points adrift at the bottom of the table after an abject home defeat to Wigan last time out.

Liverpool will also be buoyed by the return of Steven Gerrard to action tonight, and given the extended break that Liverpool have ‘enjoyed’, Torres and Agger are also likely to be available and ready.

As mentioned above, Wolves’ 2-1 defeat at home to Wigan has left the club at the bottom of the table as the year heads to a close. While they had won two consecutive home games prior to that loss, their away form has been nothing at all to write home about. They lost 3-0 at Blackburn in their away match, a result preceded by a 2-1 loss at Blackpool, a 2-1 loss at Manchester United (albeit via a stoppage time goal), a 2-0 loss at Chelsea, a 2-0 loss at Wigan, a 3-1 loss at Tottenham and a 2-1 loss at Fulham. Indeed, their only away point this season came in their first away game of the season, when they drew 1-1 at Everton. Although Wolves have picked up no new injuries, they are still without Kevin Doyle and Jody Craddock to name just two. Given the way Mick McCarthy priorities his games, it will no surprise to see some players given an extra break in this busy run of games, with Wolves heading to play a crucial game at Upon Park against West Ham on New Year’s Day.

Liverpool have been a team rarely worth backing at short-odds, but they are value tonight for a couple of wagers. 1/3 as a price may reflect the Reds shortcomings this season, but most of their worst efforts have come on the road, and the oddsmakers may have slightly underestimated their turnaround in fortunes at home (their 0-0 draw v Utrecht is best forgotten given the side played by Hodgson in a meaningless game). Further, given Wolves’ poor road form, their injuries, their dire performance against Wigan and their key clash upcoming at West Ham, this is a game that could end up getting away from them against a fit and rested Liverpool side who are looking to prove their worth in every match. Therefore, trusting the hosts to score some goals would not be the worst thing to do for a change.

SUGGESTION:

Liverpool WIN (1/3 @ various)

Liverpool -1 HANDICAP (10/11 @ Paddy Power)

Value in Arsenal HT/FT

ARSENE Wenger has seen his side blow too many points in the north of England to rest on his laurels as his Gunners head to Wigan tonight, but there is no value in backing Arsenal to take all three points at 8/15.

Victory at home to Chelsea on Monday has pushed Arsenal back into the championship race, at least for now, but the hard fought 3-1 victory over their London rivals will fade in importance if it is not backed up with a win against lowly Wigan. Arsenal are three points behind Manchester United with both teams having played 18 games, and success tonight would push Arsenal up into at least second, ahead of Manchester City on goal difference.

With the highly congested fixture list, Arsene Wenger is expected to rotate his squad tonight, but that will not cause much relief to Wigan. Cesc Fabregas misses the game with a suspension, but Arshavin and Chamakh should have enough quality to break the home defence down. Arsenal defeated Wigan 2-0 at the Emirates in the League Cup back in November in a game where Wigan failed to ever really cause the hosts serious problems.

Arsenal will also have demons to exercise at the DW Stadium after last season’s dramatic 3-2 defeat, where the Gunners blew a 2-0 lead with 10 minutes to go. However, despite their reputation for struggling away from home against the more physical sides in the Premier League, Arsenal have not travelled badly this season. Prior to their limp 1-0 defeat at Old Trafford in a game that seemed to over awe some of the young Arsenal players, they had won 4-2 at Aston Villa, 2-1 at Everton, 2-0 at Wolves, 3-0 at Manchester City, drew 1-1 at Sunderland (only conceding in stoppage time) and won 2-1 at Blackburn.

Wigan themselves will be buoyed by their own previous result, as they held on to win against fellow relegation candidates Wolves 2-1. It was a game that Wigan deserved to win, but Wolves were abject in front of their own fans and would have lost to plenty of other teams by playing as they did. However, Roberto Martinez has his team on a three-match unbeaten run (their lost loss v Arsenal in the League Cup) after that win and draws against Everton and Stoke. Wigan’s home record against the top (and supposed top) teams also makes decent reading – they drew 1-1 with Liverpool, 1-1 with 6^th placed Bolton and 1-1 with Sunderland. A 6-0 home loss verses Chelsea seems a long time ago now for a team who have conceded more than two goals in a game only once since that thrashing – going down 3-1 in an early season six-pointer against West Ham at Upton Park.

Maynor Figueroa and Hendry Thomas are both set to return for Wigan after missing the win at Wolves, and with the chance remaining that this could be a case of ‘after the Lord Mayor’s show’ for Arsenal, they are best avoided at 8/15. However, bwin are an absolute standout 29/20 about an Arsenal half time/full time double result. The bet would have come in on 6 out of Arsenal’s 9 away games to date, and that total would have been even higher if not for Sunderland’s last ditch equaliser at the Stadium of Light. The value here is with the Arsenal double result, as while they might not put Wigan entirely to the sword tonight, they should be able to get the job done.

SUGGESTION:

Arsenal HALFTIME/FULLTIME (29/20 @ bwin)

Unreliable Chelsea best avoided

AFTER Chelsea’s crucial defeat at Arsenal earlier in the week, where there improved performance at Tottenham seemed a very distant memory, there is no sense in getting involved in any markets for their game against Bolton tonight.

Chelsea have now failed to win in six successive Premier League games, a run that has included a 3-0 home defeat against Sunderland and a 1-1 home draw against Everton. The Blues have fallen down to 5^th place in the table, and a the aim of making a genuine title charge could soon be replaced by an increased urgency to secure a top-three spot at the end of the season unless their form quickly improves.

Nicolas Anelka may again be missing for Chelsea tonight, and while the Frenchman has been in no great run of form himself recently, his absence leads to the selection of either, or both of, Kalou and Malouda – and after their performance at the Emirates that should not excite even the most loyal of Chelsea supporters.

Defeat against Bolton would push Chelsea even further down the table and into an almost unimaginable 6^th position. Bolton themselves are having almost an equally surprising run of form, but theirs is of a far more pleasant variety. Owen Coyle has led Bolton to 5^th in the table, and they were successful on Boxing Day with a 2-0 home win verses West Brom. However, when successfully tipping Sunderland to beat Bolton on the 18^th of this month, I noted that Bolton’s great run showed signs of slowing down, and little has changed since that point. The 2-0 win over the Baggies looks less impressive in the light of West Brom’s poor effort at home to Blackburn yesterday, and Bolton’s away form does not match their excellent home record. In their lost two away games they suffered defeat at Sunderland and a 1-0 loss at Manchester City (a scoreline that flattered the visitors).

Bolton also lack the required strength in depth to see them through this busy spell of games. Lee has joined up with teammates at the Asia Cup, Cohen will be absent for personal reasons and they add to an increasingly long injury list. Bolton’s recent record against Chelsea is also fairly dismal, they have not won since a 2-1 victory at the Bridge back in 2003. Bolton also have only 3 victories in 26 London away games – all of those being gained against West Ham.

Despite the worries over Bolton, they have enough talent still available, not to mention enough gumption under Owen Coyle, to cause the struggling Chelsea some problems. No question here over which team still ought to prevail tonight – Chelsea’s slumbering cannot go indefinitely – but with Bolton’s confidence on a high, this contest is left best alone.

SUGGESTION:

No Bet

Update - Tuesday Selections

WEST BROM 1-3 Blackburn

Preston 1-3 MIDDLESBROUGH

A pair of 3-1 away victories, but only one of which is of much use on the blog. Middlesbrough recovered from an early Jones goal to run away as comfortable winners at Deepdale. Leroy Lita bragged a brace to help 'boro further away from the relegation zone and justify their selection today.

As for West Brom, they thoroughly deserved the defeat in a game where they under-performed. It was West Brom at their worst, as they tried to play too many intricate passes when going forward and wasted a number of decent opportunities in and around the box. At the back, there were elementary errors, especially from set-pieces and balls into the box, that cost West Brom dearly and gave Steve Kean his first win as Blackburn boss.

Overall, 1/2 (50%) on the blog this week, having broken even on the afternoon.

West Brom have too much for Blackburn

WEST BROM are good value at home to Blackburn this afternoon as they look to end a successful year in style.

Both these sides sit on 22 points in the Premier League table, with West Brom having the slightly better goal difference, but it is Rovers who might have more reason to worry about their fortunes in 2011. Since the controversial sacking of Sam Allardyce, Blackburn have managed only one point from two home games after a 1-1 draw against then-bottom West Ham and a 2-0 defeat to Stoke.  The cracks are already showing in a Rovers team under the direction of Steve Kean, whose managerial inexperience could facilitate the early sharpening of the knives in Lancashire.

West Brom, meanwhile, have been quite inconsistent in their form of late. They have suffered two straight road defeats (2-0 at Bolton, 2-1 at Aston Villa), but by all accounts played quite well at the Reebok. In their last home game, they beat Newcastle United 3-0 and looked good in the process, but that win came in their first home game since their own 3-0 loss to Stoke.

Backing West Brom at odds on in any Premier League match is not usually a wise thing to do, but there can be no doubt that they face a Blackburn side who are on the brink of a crisis. The Baggies ability to knock the ball around was evident at Bolton on Boxing Day, and that footballing ability should be rewarded at home, as it was against Newcastle. It can often be feast (4-1 win @ Everton) or famine for West Brom fans, but there is value in backing it to be a good day for the home fans at the Hawthorns this afternoon.

SUGGESTION;

West Brom WIN (10/11 @ Paddy Power)

Middlesbrough may get better of Preston

MIDDLESBROUGH could slip into the Championship relegation zone with defeat at Preston today, but the visitors should be backed in the draw no bet market to avoid a meek end to the year.

The visitors have won only one of their last six matches, a 1-0 home victory over Cardiff City at the Riverside, and their last away points came with a 2-0 win at Scunthorpe way back at the start of November. However, there have been signs of improvement of late for Tony Mowbray’s men. Defeat last time out at Doncaster came only via a stoppage time winner for the home team, and Middlesbrough’s last six games have all been either draws or decided by just one goal. Indeed, ‘boro missed a penalty at Coventry, a game they went on to lose 1-0. While their form is hardly scintillating, they may have enough to get the better of bottom club Preston.

Preston themselves have looked better in recent matches, and come into this contest on a three-match unbeaten run. Darren Ferguson’s side drew 0-0 at home against Millwall, and were seconds away from a win at Cardiff before conceding a 94^th minute leveller. In their last home match, however, they did secure that elusive win with a 1-0 victory over struggling Ipswich.

However, not too much ought to be read into Preston’s victory over Ipswich, who are team with their own set of problems, and Middlesbrough are the value here at Evs draw-no-bet. Tony Mowbray has at least restored some resiliency to the side, and an improvement in results will start to follow in time. That moment may well be today, as Middlesbrough put some space between themselves and their hosts.

SUGGESTION;

Middlesbrough DRAW NO BET (Evs @ various)

Update - Falcons 14-17 Saints

DREW Brees and the New Orleans Saints proved that they are still legitimate Superbowl contenders as they became the first team to win at the Georgia Dome since...the New Orleans Saints, more than a calender year ago.

Brees led a 90-yard touchdown drive late in the 4th quarter to provide the win for the Saints, who now confirm their playoff spot - though they will likely still be a wildcard team, and may have to win once more in Atlanta this year if they want to repeat as Superbowl champions.

Crucially, New Orleans managed to contain the Atlanta ground game, holding Michael Turner to 48 yards on 17 carries.

End of Week Data

THIS blog will never shy away from transparency - be that good or bad for its reputation. In that spirit, here is the total data for the second week of publication.
WINS:

Bears @ 3/10 (won 40-14)

Boise State -16.5 @ 10/11 (won 26-3)

San Diego State @ 4/6 (won 35-14)

QPR @ 6/5 (won 4-0)

Manchester United -1 @ 5/6 (won 2-0)

Green Bay Packers @ 11/17 (won 45-17)

LOSSES:

Wolves @ 23/20 (lost 2-1)

Chelsea DNB @ Evs (lost 3-1)

Further to these results, specific advice was given not to back Fulham at Evs in their game verses West Ham - Fulham eventually lost 3-1. Specific advice was also given not to back Celtic at 1/4 when they played Kilmarnock at home - the game finished 1-1. Though it is worth noting these accurate recommendations for avoiding short-priced losers, they were not official 'tips', nor 'lays', and so do not count in the final data count.

Further, it was also suggested this week to back the Green Bay Packers at 37/1 to win the Superbowl, and then trade out when they were available to lay at 19/1. Again, I do not include this in the final tally.

TOTAL RESULT:

A £10 stake on each selection this week would have returned an overall profit of £25.55.

This is a 32% increase in bank over the week.

(£80 staked, £105.55 returned)

 

Update - Arsenal 3-1 Chelsea

QUITE the surprise at the Emirates tonight, as Arsenal romped to a 3-1 victory over their London rivals. The victory certainly rekindles Arsenal's title ambitions, but also highlights and magnifies Chelsea's problems.

Arsenal won the game in midfield, their battling display saw them win nearly all the 50/50 balls (and some less than 50/50 balls). Chelsea's dawdling on the ball was summed up with the way that they conceded the third goal just two minutes after losing the second. Essien was poor, playing only lateral passes when in possession and rarely doing a good job defensively. Frank Lampard, meanwhile, was nearly invisible, only appearing intermittently to deliver poor corners.

Up front, Chelsea were also quite toothless. Kalou made Drogba look like a workhorse, which is quite some achievement, while Kakuta (who came on for a poor Malouda) looked entirely out of his depth.

For themselves, Arsenal were valiant in their victory and thoroughly deserved their 3 points in a game they dominated. Whether they are legitimate title contenders perhaps remains to be seen, given Chelsea's increasingly spiralling season, but on this night they looked as good as they could.

With the loss, now 6/8 (75%) on the blog this week. A full weekly recap will follow in the morning.

Sit back and enjoy the Saints and Falcons

LAST season’s Superbowl winners meet one of this season’s Superbowl favourites in a tremendous Monday night football clash at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta tonight. However, from a betting point of view, this is a game best watched rather than taken on.

The Falcons, at 12-2, stand just one win away from wrapping up the number one seed in the NFC, a fact that could be a crucial for a team who are so good at home. Atlanta has not lost at home all season, already having beaten playoff contenders Green Bay, Tampa Bay and Baltimore. The Falcons last home loss was in fact against the Saints more than a year ago, a late field goal giving the visitors a 26-23 victory. A victory for the Falcons either this week or next will guarantee that the road to the Superbowl will have to pass through Atlanta.

As for New Orleans, they find themselves in a similar position to Atlanta, needing to win one of their next two games to secure a playoff berth. The Saints stand at 10-4, after a 6-point loss in Baltimore last week. However, New Orleans had regained its swagger with a six-game win-streak prior to that loss and has looked like it may be getting back to its best. The Saints offence, led by Drew Brees, remains one of the most potent in the league, but their run defence will be severely tested in this game. The Falcons overtime win in New Orleans earlier this year was powered by 202 yards on the ground, and the Ravens gained 208 yards against the Saints last Sunday via the same method.

This is one of those games, between two very talented football teams, that the bookies have priced up correctly and there is no real angle to be found. The Falcons are justifiably favourites given their ability to run the ball and their superb record at home, but backing them at a short-price to beat New Orleans is not an enticing proposition. Equally, backing New Orleans to end the Falcons tremendous home record at a best price of 4/3 is of no great interest. This is a game that is definitely best avoided, but could be a real treat to watch.

SUGGESTION:

No Bet

Chelsea unlikely to fall to Gunners

CHELSEA have a fantastic recent record against Arsenal, with just two losses in eighteen against the Gunners and five straight wins, and they should backed to continue that impressive record in tonight’s contest at the Emirates.

Arsenal are a team about whom very few people can seem to agree about at the moment – there presence in the title race still being a point of debate in regards to its sustainability. They did their cause no favours with a flat and lacklustre 1-0 defeat at Old Trafford in their last Premier League match, and the fear of defeat that so gripped them on that evening cannot be discounted as a factor in this contest.

Arsenal’s three home defeats this season is also only bettered in the entire league by West Ham’s four, as Arsene Wenger’s side have struggled to shrug off the tag of being a team of talented kids that once again fails to have the resolve and heart necessary for a prolonged title campaign. While the dangerous Robin van Persie may be selected for the hosts tonight, 10-goal striker Chamakh may be given a rest, according to Arsene Wenger.

Chelsea, meanwhile, have suffered with their own form of late. Since beating Fulham 1-0 at home at the start of November, the Blues have won only once – a 2-1 home victory over MSK Zilina in the Champions League.  However, their poor run of form had coincided with the loss of Frank Lampard to injury as well as struggles from Drogba and Anelka. Both Drogba and Lampard came off the bench as Chelsea came close to winning at Spurs last time out in a game that finished 1-1 only after Drogba missed a late penalty, and a return to form of Chelsea’s star-men cannot be downplayed in its importance. After 4 straight league wins to start the season, many people had already crowned Chelsea as champions, and while those predictions may have been overblown so are any predictions of Chelsea’s imminent demise.

In another contest where both Arsenal and Chelsea will have their title credentials tested, it will be no surprise if the hosts are found wanting again. Chelsea’s mental resolve has certainly been tested by their poor run of form, but they should their class and toughness against Tottenham at White Hart Lane – both things that were so palpably absent for Arsenal at Old Trafford. Since neither team can afford to lose, the game may be a cagey encounter where a point becomes increasingly acceptable to each coach, but since it is hard to envisage an Arsenal win, Chelsea are value at Evs in the draw no bet market.

SUGGESTION:

Chelsea DRAW NO BET (Evs @ Coral)

Update - Packers 45-17 Giants

IT was slightly more comfortable, in the end, than even those of us who backed Green Bay would have predicted, but the Packers put themselves in a good position for a playoff place with this dominant victory over the New York Giants.

Green Bay gained more than 500 yards in the game, with Aaron Rogers throwing for three touchdowns on his return from injury. Defensively, as was predicted, the Packers put real pressure on Eli Manning as he tried to lead the Giants back from a deficit, forcing 4 interceptions and 6 turnovers in total.

The 28-point maragin of victory more than justified the decision to back the Packers at 11/17.

With the win, I'm now 6/7 (86%) on the blog this week. A full weekly recap will be available on Tuesday.

SUGGESTION:

I earlier recommended to back the Packers at 37/1 to win the Superbowl on Betfair, as excellent trading material. I am now happy to suggest trading out, with the Packers available to lay at 19/1. (I personally made what ultimately was a mistake and traded out at 26/1 as the game was being played). This tip, although succesful, will not count in my weekly run down, as any profit may be deferred and left as a 'free bet' on the Packers to win the Superbowl, depending on particular personal tendencies in the market.

Update - Boxing Day Results

QPR 4-0 Swansea

Manchester United 2-0 Sunderland

Wolves 1-2 Wigan

Fulham 1-3 West Ham (No Bet - Fulham at evs)

Two out of three on the afternoon and enough to turn a profit. Things started well as Fulham, who were selected as being too short at Evs, suffered a 3-1 home defeat to West Ham. The Cottagers went ahead early, but a battling West Ham came back to win with some comfort.

In the 1pm kick-off, QPR blitzed Swansea 4-0 to more than justify their selection at 6/5. Manchester United also covered their 1 goal handicap with a 2-0 win, but the scoreline perhaps flattered Sunderland, as United could easily have been 4-0 up within 20 minutes.

The clear failures of the day were Wolves, who slip to the bottom of the Premier League after a 2-1 defeat at home to Wigan. With Wigan sitting back on a 2-0 lead, Wolves dominated the second period, but lacked any real quality to take advantage of their possession. In fact, at times, Wolves' desperation caused elementary mistakes, and the boos from the home fans at full time were more than justified. Unless there is a dramatic improvement, Wolves will do well to finish 19th in the table, let alone survive for another campaign in the top flight.

Overall, 5/6 on the blog this week (83%) with the Green Bay Packers still to play this evening. A full weekly rundown will be available on Tuesday.

Green Bay have talent for crucial win

A summary of Boxing Day English football picks is available HERE.

WITH just over 7 minutes to play in last Sunday’s game against the Philadelphia Eagles, the New York Giants were thinking about a division title. By the end of this Sunday’s game, the Giants may be facing up to the prospect of not making the playoffs at all.

New York’s implosion last week against the Eagles at home will live long in the memory of anyone who witnessed it, as the Giants blew a 21-point lead to lose 38-31 on a late DeSean Jackson punt return touchdown. That loss leaves the Giants at 9-5, just a game ahead of their opponents at Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon, and a loss against the Packers would take the Giants playoff destiny out of their own hands with just one week of the regular season remaining.

However, anyone who believes that the Giants will lose this game as a result of a hangover from last week is quite wrong. The Giants are a veteran team, with a veteran coach, and having won a Superbowl they will know that all is not lost. Tom Coughlin, Brandon Jacobs and Eli Manning have all faced up to the media this week, and there is no question over the Giants resiliency and stomach for the fight. The problem for the Giants on Sunday will not be their mental state, it will be the team facing them from across the field.

The Packers will welcome back Aaron Rodgers on Sunday after he missed last weekend’s battling loss at New England, and was forced to leave the game against Detroit the week previous – a game that the Packers lost 7-3. However, while their two game losing streak has put Green Bay on the edge of oblivion, this is a team with too much talent to be counted out – especially with the return of Rodgers. All six of the Packers losses have been by less than five points, while Lambeau Field has remained a fortress with Green Bay winning nine of their last ten home games.

At 4-2, the Giants are no mugs on the road, but wins over Dallas, Houston, Minnesota and Seattle hardly compare to this game (defeats have been @ Indianapolis way back in week two, and then in Philadelphia). The Giants rushing attack is the key to their success, they average nearly 145 yards a game, which is good enough for 5^th best in the league, and it could be the deciding factor or Sunday. The Packers pass defence is the third best in the league, and Eli Manning has thrown a league leading 20 interceptions. If the Packers can force the Giants away from the ground game and make them play from behind, it could be a touch day for New York.

With the season pretty much on the line for both of these teams, this is a virtual playoff game. With that in mind, the Packers should be trusted to make the most use of their home field advantage for a crucial win. The return of Aaron Rodgers is key for a Green Bay team that has played far above its 8-6 record, and while there will be no mental hangover from last week for the Giants, they may ultimately look back upon this week and last week as the time period where it all went wrong. Take the Packers to put a dent in New York’s playoff aspirations.

SUGGESTION:

Green Bay WIN (11/17 @ bwin)

Green Bay should also be backed for a small stake to win the Superbowl at impressive value. Clearly, defeat today would end their hopes, but the Packers talent could carry them deep into the playoffs, especially if results over the next two weeks vault them into the 5^th seed in the NFC and provide a road game against the winners of the NFC West in the first round of the playoffs. They are good trading material.

SUGGESTION (2):

Green Bay SUPERBOWL WINNERS (37/1 @ Betfair)

Boxing Day Selections

WOLVES v Wigan

QPR v Swansea

MANCHESTER UNITED -1 v Sunderland

Three more home selections for the Boxing Day schedule, as Manchester United and QPR should both be able to secure their positions at the top of their respective leagues. United, in particular, could be in for a free scoring afternoon against an injury hit Sunderland squad.

Meanwhile, Wolves recent run of good home form can be expected to continue against a Wigan team who have justified their reputation as one of the favourites for the drop.

More detail is able via each of the links above, and comments are welcome below.

Elsewhere, here are my points to note. These are not classified as tips.

FULHAM are too short at evens to be backed to beat West Ham at home in the first game of the day. The same shortness of price is enough to keep well away from EVERTON at home to Birmingham, as the Toffees inability to score should see them avoided. Recall that a good result for Everton at Chelsea was followed up with a 0-0 home draw against Wigan before getting too carried away by the recent success at Manchester City.

CRAWLEY are also too short at 4/6 to win at Eastbourne in the Conference, after flattering to deceive in recent away games, including a 1-1 draw at Barrow. Eastborune were beaten 4-2 at home by championship-chasing Luton earlier in the season, but they gave the Hatters all they could handle that afternoon, coming back from 2-0 down to level the match at 2-2. Home form has been key to Eastbourne's continued success in the conference, and following the visitors at such a short price highlights a strategy that will not provide success in the long run.

United should enjoy Boxing Day success

SUNDERLAND have been having a tremendous season in the Premier League this year, but they may not enjoy much festive cheer at Old Trafford on Boxing Day.

The Black Cats have used a superb home record to climb to 6^th place in the Premier League, but Steve Bruce will head back to Manchester with a long list of players unavailable for this game. Influential midfielders Lee Cattermole (suspended) and Danny Welbeck (ineligible) will both be missing, while John Mensah’s injury has placed him in a very busy treatment room alongside another centreback, Titus Bramble, amongst others. Sunderland have managed to cope with their increasing selection problems with recent wins at home over Bolton and West Ham, but their away from has not been so impressive. Since an incredible 3-0 win at Stamford Bridge,  Sunderland have lost at Wolves and drawn 0-0 at 16^th place Fulham.

Manchester United, meanwhile, will have been delighted with recent events in the Premier League, as they have risen to the top of the pile. A 1-0 home win against Arsenal came in a game that was not, perhaps, filled with a tremendous amount of quality, but their 7-1 victory over Blackburn highlights the ability that the Red Devils have to really do damage to teams. The return of Vidic should help to sure up United’s already solid defence, and with Sunderland’s own injury hit backline, this could be a game too far the visitors.

Manchester United are not likely to take Sunderland lightly given their 0-0 draw at the Stadium of Light earlier in the season, and Sir Alex Ferguson’s side could be primed to produce a bag full of goals against depleted Sunderland. The Black Cats have survived injuries in recent contests, but the loss of Cattermole and Welbeck could be the rather large straws that break the camel’s back.

SUGGESTION:

Manchester United -1 HANDICAP WIN (5/6 @ 888sport)

Trust QPR to return to form

MANY punters will have been badly burned by QPR following their 3-1 home defeat against Watford on national television on the 10^th of December, but they can be trusted to take all three points in the top of the table clash against Swansea on Boxing Day.

QPR followed up that home defeat against Watford with a 2-0 defeat at Elland Road against an in-form Leeds team, but a return to their home patch will be just what the doctor ordered for Neil Warnock’s men. Prior to that defeat against Watford, QPR had dispatched second-placed Cardiff City 2-1 at home, as well as comfortably beating Preston 3-1 at Loftus Road. Indeed, much of QPR’s recent so-called ‘blip’ in form can be put down to their away performances, where a selection of draws have been accumulated – though gaining a point at Nottingham Forest, for example, is no indicator of a poor performance. In Adel Taarabt, Rangers still have one of the best players in the Championship and their position at the top of the league is by no means a false one.

Swansea themselves are in no great run of form at the moment. A 1-0 defeat at Sheffield United last time out followed up a disappointing home draw against Millwall. Recent victories for the Swans have been secured against struggling Ipswich and Middlesbrough, while a point at Doncaster was only salvaged by a last minute equaliser. The Swans also have the best defence in the championship to deal with, and their 3-1 win at Ipswich aside, the south Wales unit have not managed more than one goal in any game since a 3-0 win at Crystal Palace in October. The two sides also played out a 0-0 draw at the Liberty Stadium back in mid-October, and despite having good possession at Sheffield United a week ago, Swansea failed to create many chances. That lack of firepower may well be their undoing against the leaders.

Some will be wary of backing QPR at a relatively short price given their recent form, as well as Swansea’s lofty position in the table, but now is the time to profit on a team that still remains as the most likely to win the Championship title this season. Swansea are in no great run of form themselves, while QPR’s recent struggles have been over-played – especially given the fact that Rangers have won three of their last four matches at home, two of which were against sides in the top seven places in the division. At 6/5, QPR do represent value in this contest.

SUGGESTION:

QPR WIN (6/5 @ Victor Chandler)

Follow Wolves to get past Wigan

WOLVES have been sitting in the Premier League relegation zone for three months, but they should backed to take a critical three points from fellow strugglers Wigan on Boxing Day.

14 of Wolves’ 15 points this season have been gained at home and the club is currently riding a two-game home winning streak having recorded wins over Birmingham (1-0) and Sunderland (3-2) in their last two games at Molineux. A 3-0 defeat at Blackburn in the middle of those two victories was a result that flattered the hosts, and while Wolves are clearly no world beaters, their recent form has seen a genuine improvement. Although Wolves did only manage a 1-1 home draw with bottom club West Ham, their home form represents the key to their survival hopes, with Stoke and Manchester City also leaving the west midlands with no points this season.

Wigan were successful by a 2-0 scoreline when the teams met earlier in the campaign, but Roberto Martinez still must be concerned by a lack of genuine quality in the ranks. A 0-0 draw at Everton in their last game probably said more about Everton’s own issues up front than it does about a resilient Wigan defence, and a meek 3-1 defeat at West Ham in late November raises questions about Wigan’s stomach for the scramble for points against their relegation rivals. Home form has been Wigan’s recent strength, as prior to their rather fortunate draw at Everton, Wigan had suffered defeat in their five previous away contests (at Fulham, Blackburn, Manchester United, West Ham and Arsenal in the Carling Cup). They will not be helped in this match, either, by the absence of suspended Maynor Figueroa.

Given Wolves’ good recent home form and Wigan’s general lack of quality, there is no reason not to get on board with the hosts at a best price of 23/20, as they look to end their lengthy stay in the drop zone.

SUGGESTION:

Wolves WIN (23/20 @ totesport and Paddy Power)

Leave Fulham alone at evens

FULHAM have been the draw specialists in the Premier League this season, and the bookmakers have them correctly priced at evens to beat West Ham in the opening game on the Boxing Day slate.

Despite winning only twice all season in the league (v Wigan and v Wolves), Fulham’s capacity for gaining single points still has them placed one spot outside of the relegation zone, in 16^th position. Pressure on manager Mark Hughes is certain to increase, however, if his team continue failing to take victories against other teams near the foot of the table. Fulham’s form of late has not been awful, a home draw last week against Sunderland was preceded by a single goal defeat at Arsenal, but a 1-1 home draw against Birmingham (notoriously bad travellers) at the end of November raises concerns over their price for this contest.

As for Fulham’s opponents, West Ham find themselves bottom at Christmas and could soon find themselves without a manager. The knives seem to be out for Avram Grant unless he can start to turn the Hammers fortunes around in the near future, and although a point at Blackburn last week will have helped somewhat, wins are the order of the day for West Ham. After an appalling 3-0 defeat at Anfield, West Ham’s performances have improved in recent weeks. A 4-0 Carling Cup success against Manchester United may have represented the catching of lightening in a bottle, but the Hammers did beat Wigan at home and as well as gaining the creditable draw at Blackburn. A 1-0 defeat at Sunderland is itself not that much of a bad result given the Black Cats impressive home record. Rob Green’s return from injury for this clash may also help West Ham frustrate their goal starved opponents, yet West Ham’s own inability in front of goal is well noted – their strikers have hit the net only six times all season.

While West Ham’s performances of late have not been inspiring, they have started to show some resolve for their under-fire boss. Given their battling efforts, and Fulham’s own inability to win football matches, there is enough to suggest that the even money about a Fulham success is best avoided. Those who take such a price would no doubt questioning how rational it was for them to be tempted if the match ended in a draw, and that fact alone suggests that the price is one best avoided.

SUGGESTION:

No Bet

Update - San Diego State 35-14 Navy

SAN Diego State won their first bowl game since 1969 against Navy last night, as predicted here. The Aztecs jumped out to an early 14-0 lead, but the Midhsipmen rallied to stay within touching distance into the 4th quarter.

However, freshman running back Ronnie Hillman was the star for the Aztecs, gaining over 200 yards, and San Diego State's ability to throw and run the ball effectively proved too much for Navy as the game progressed.

Another win for the blog, this time at 4/6, makes me 3/3 (100%) on the week. A full weekly recap will follow at the end of the week.

Aztecs to overcome Navy Midshipmen

THE Navy Midshipman will be feeling right at home in Qualcomm Stadium on Thursday night, as they take on San Diego State University in the Poinsettia Bowl. Heavy rain in southern California, itself a rare event, has left nearly 10 inches of muddy water on the field heading into Thursday’s game, and though bowl officials have been loudly declaring that the game will start as scheduled, the mud-bath promises to have an impact on the type of game that ends up taking place.

Navy will also have plenty support in the stadium for the game, the city of San Diego is home to the largest naval base on America’s west coast, and the success that those fans wish to see from their football team will likely need to be inspired by Navy’s three-pronged rushing attack. Led by Ricky Dobbs, Navy boasts a rush-offence that averages 289 yards per game, a total that was 5^th best in the nation. Dobbs is the stereotypical ‘option’ quarterback, and the senior will end an excellent career with Navy on Thursday.

How much a muddy field with affect the potency of Navy’s run game will be important, however, as Navy’s attack is far superior on the ground than through the air. That said, San Diego State will have their own plans to foil the naval running game. The Aztecs ranked third in run defence in the Mountain West Conference, and in head coach Brady Hoke, the Aztecs have a talented coach who has been able to game plan for Navy for several weeks. San Diego State defensive co-ordinator Rocky Long was also head coach of New Mexico in 2004, when he watched Navy run their way to victory in the Emerald Bowl – there will be no shortage of planning to deal with Navy’s triple threat attack.

On the other side of the matchup, San Diego State’s own offence has the ability to put up big points. Ryan Lindley was the top quarterback in the Mountain West Conference this season, while running back Ronnie Hillman broke freshman rushing records. The Aztecs offence is far more balanced than Navy’s, something that could become a major factor depending on how the field plays as the game moves on.

San Diego State, despite going 8-4 to Navy’s 9-3, also boasts some impressive performances this season. The Aztecs lost by only 5 points to undefeated TCU, lost by only 4 points to #20 Utah, lost by three on the road to bowl bound by BYU and, again, by only three on the road against Missouri. Four losses they may be, but San Diego State boasts impressive losses coupled with their 8 victories. SDSU also has the advantage in games against common opponents, having beaten Air Force 27-25, while Navy lost to the same team 14-6. Navy’s notable win was against Notre Dame, but a loss against Duke failed to add anything positive to their resume. They do, however, come into the contest on a four game winning streak.

San Diego State is clearly better than their 8-4 record might immediately suggest, and that is why they should be backed to win tonight. The Aztecs first bowl game in over a decade is some achievement by itself, but SDSU players have not been allowed to get ahead of themselves. Playing at home will also stop the team from getting too distracted by bowl festivities. Navy, meanwhile, are becoming bowl veterans, but their one-dimensional offence will not be enough against a stout defence and a well balanced SDSU attack. Take San Diego State to win their first bowl game since 1969.

SUGGESTION:

San Diego State Aztecs WIN (4/6 @ Sportingbet, Stan James and William Hill)

Update - Boise State 26-3 Utah

BOISE State ended their season with a comfortable win last night, as predicted on this blog. The Broncos beat the Utah Utes 26-3, inspired by an 84-yard touchdown run in the second quarter by Doug Martin. The Broncos defence helped the cause, as Boise covered a 16.5 point spread, holding the Utes offence to just 8 first downs all night.

The Broncos may not have wanted to be in Vegas for a bowl game, but those who believed in their talent and took the 10/11 on Boise to cover the spread were well rewarded.

Overall, 2/2 (100%) on picks this week. A full review of picks will follow at the end of the week.

Boise will end season in style

BOISE State’s national championship aspirations came to a sudden end with a dramatic 34-31 loss against Nevada, but no matter how disappointed the Broncos are to be playing pre-Christmas rather than post new years day, they can be backed to deliver against the Utah Utes.

The Broncos were most people’s darling team this season as they, alongside TCU, tried to play the role of BCS-buster with an undefeated season. However, despite over-coming several key hurdles on their way to an undefeated season, with wins over Hawaii, Oregon State and notably Virginia Tech, the Broncos dream ended on the road against Nevada. The Broncos led that game by a score of 24-7 at halftime, only to blow that lead, before missing a potential game-winning chip shot field goal. The loss bumped Boise out of the race for a BCS bowl game and down to #10 in the most recent poll.

However, while the loss was ultimately heartbreaking for the Broncos, it was a blip game where Boise allowed a ferocious second half comeback on the road. Perhaps not too much should be read into that defeat, and instead the focus should remain on Boise’s high-powered offence led by Kellen Moore. Moore was the second best quarterback in the country this season, behind only Heisman-trophy winning Cam Newton from Auburn, a vote in which Moore himself finished fourth. The fact remains that just a few weeks ago, Boise was seemingly poised for BCS pay dirt, and the spectacular failure of a kicker in a hostile road environment should not over-shadow the great talent that the Broncos possess. Boise also showed a resiliency after the Nevada loss, putting up 50 points against Utah State in a victory to end the regular season.

The Broncos will, though, have to try end a 9-game bowl winning streak by their opponents if they are to claim victory in Las Vegas. The Utah Utes, on their way to a BCS conference themselves next season, are no strangers to big post-season games, and big post-season success. Utah themselves at one point were ranked inside the top ten, before a huge loss to eventual unbeaten TCU. That November 6^th loss, by a 40-point margin at home, clearly took its toll on the Utes, as they lost by 25-points the next week on the road against Notre Dame. However, the Utes did rebound in their final two games of the regular season with gritty, come from behind wins, against San Diego State and BYU. Indeed, Utah players have rallied behind their ‘comeback ability’, a toughness and resiliency that could exploit Boise’s inability to necessarily put teams away. That resiliency will be tested even more in this match up however, as the Utes will be missing their starting quarterback Jordan Wynn. Senior Terrance Cain, who has a 9-1 record, will start in Wynn’s absence, but Cain has blown hot and cold this season and threw two interceptions in the team’s last game against BYU.

Utah’s resolve, and their 9-game bowl win streak, should not be discounted given Boise’s ultimate disappointment in playing this game. Indeed, Boise’s bowl wins may be memorable, but the Broncos have a history of playing close games in the post-season; their last seven bowl games have all been decided by seven points or less. However, no matter how resilient and mentally strong Utah have been in adversity, it cannot hide the fact that they were demolished in their most important game of the season against TCU. Without Jordan Wynn, the Utes will struggle to keep up with Kellen Moore and company, who showed their own ability to battle, of sorts, with a win last week. Boise’s history of close bowl games is a concern given their potential lack of motivation (coupled with their ability to give sizeable advantages away) but at the end of the day the ability to put big points on the board will be enough to carry the Broncos to a comfortable victory. Take Boise State to win, and take them to cover the spread as well, as they end the season in style.

*Boise State has won by 17 or more points nine times this season*

SUGGESTION:

Boise State -16.5 (10/11 @ various)