England unlikely to let Aussies back in

ENGLISH cricket fans are in an unusual position down under, and the bookmakers and punters have still not adapted to the changing of the guard as the third Ashes test nears its opening in Perth on Wedneday night. There has been very little to concern English fans in the first two test matches, with both bowlers and batsmen stepping up to the plate when needed, all while their Australian counterparts have floundered with the ball, with the bat and in the field. Desperate Australian calls for Shane Warne to return highlight the concerns in the Aussie camp, and the addition of the uncapped Michael Beer hardly inspires confidence. Beer is the tenth different spinner to earn a baggy green since Warne departed the international scene, and with just ten first-class games under his belt England might not have too much to fear.

England themselves have an enforced change to make for the third test, with Stuart Broad leaving the tour with the injury he sustained in Adelaide. Chris Tremlett is the likely replacement, and not too much should be taken from a lacklustre bowling performance by the England backups against Victoria, an entirely different game on a pitch in Melbourne that will not have a lot in common with the pitch being prepared in the west of the country. Though the traditionally bouncy and green Perth track has been flatter of late (see England's warm up game against Western Australia), there is talk that it could do more to help the quicks in this contest - and there can little doubt that Ricky Ponting would like to see a result wicket in place by the time the two sides take the field.

Concerns have also been raised about the fitness of James Anderson after his dash back to England for the birth of his child, and though a pinch of salt should be added to his comments, Anderson was looking and sounding surprisingly fresh in interviews on Monday.

Ultimately, those wanting to take an interest in this contest need not overlook the obvious facts. England have been better than Australia in nearly every session during this series (bat a few bad hours at Adelaide) and slaughtered the hosts in the second test. Broad's injurh aside, the England squad is confident and stable while Australia are in something of a tailspin and locals are forced to wake up properly to the fact that the next generation of Aussie cricketers are, at present, not up to scratch. The bookies have responded to this fact accordingly, with SportingBet a best priced 1/2 that England win the series. However, the 5/6 that remains on ENGLAND DRAW NO BET in the third test market is too tempting to ignore. Though some value has gone from earlier in the week when the sides were closer to being evenly priced, Engl.and are a class above their Australian counterparts and should be backed to deliver the goods, whilst keeping the draw on side.


SELECTION -

England DRAW NOT BET (5/6 @ Stan James)