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Still offline due to house move and problems with internet - hoping to be back online next week.

Many thanks

Thursday Result

No goals at Hillsborough as Sheffield Wednesday and Blackpool head into extra-time in a deadlock. That, of course, spells doom for the over 2.5 goals selection from earlier. Still, it was perhaps a speculative half a point offering for the game and does not hit the overall profit gained so far too badly. Clearly, the Megson affect may have been bigger than planned!*



*I must note I did not watch the game! I was busy watching Wellingborough Whitworths defeat AFC Rushden & Diamonds 3-0 in a pre-season friendly. After suffering defeat via the same scoreline on Saturday, this was an improved Diamonds performance. 2-0 down at half-time to two excellent finishes, Diamonds had much more of the play in the second half, hitting the post and forcing a good save from the home goalkeeper. The third Whitworths goal came from virtually the last kick of the match and was something of a fluke.

Summary of BetsOne loser: Sheffield Wednesday v Blackpool - Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11 (0.5 pts)

TOTAL LOSS: 0.5 points
TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 4.56 points

Sheffield Wednesday v Blackpool

You know that the football season is back in full-swing when there is a live contest on the Sky Sports Thursday night schedule, and the cameras held to Hillsborough tonight in the anticipation of goals between Sheffield Wednesday and Blackpool.

The lineups of both teams will be much changed from their respective season openers at the weekend, which makes the game a very tricky prospect from a betting point of view. Blackpool are without goalkeeper Matt Gilks, as well as Stephen Crainey and Craig Cathcart who played in the international games yesterday. Sheffield Wednesday meanwhile are unlikely to give a debut to new signing Chris O'Grady, but striker Danny Uchechi could start after completing a loan move to the club yesterday. (*editorial note - Danny Uchechi was very good for Rushden and Diamonds on Football Manager...*)

The best indication to Blackpool's approach could come from their efforts under Holloway in this competition over the last two seasons. A 4-3 extra-time loss to Milton Keynes last season certainly indicates that Holloway's 'go for goals' approach carries over to the League Cup, and in the season before that Blackpool progressed to round three in games that went over 2.5 goals on all three occasions (2-1 win at Crewe, 4-1 win v Wigan and 4-3 loss at Stoke).

Sheffield Wednesday were not exactly prolific in a 1-0 win over Bury at home in the first round last season, and with no O'Grady the Owls will lineup without their preferred strikeforce. The 2-0 win over Rochdale would have pleased Megson, whose defensive approach is perhaps the antithesis of Holloway, in that the Owls held on for a clean sheet. However, keeping Blackpool out may not be so easy tonight.

A difficult call, and with a host of changes none of the prices appeal on the outright markets. 10/11 on over 2.5 goals is perhaps a little slim, but for those looking for a bet tonight, it is never a bad idea to have goals on your side in a Blackpool match, especially in the League Cup where extra-time will want to be avoided if possible.

SUGGESTION:

Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11 @ Coral (0.5pts)

Wednesday Review

Oxford and Cardiff have not even reached half time, but the earlier tip is already weighed in. Both teams have scored as it is now 1-1, Simon Clist equalising for Oxford after the visitors took the lead.

Summary of Bets

One winner: Oxford United v Cardiff City - Both teams to score (1-1 at time of post) @ 5/6

TOTAL PROFIT: .83 points based on 1pt stake

TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 5.06 points

Oxford v Cardiff

Only one match in the Carling Cup tonight as a result of the postponment of the game in Bristol, and the match between Oxford United and Cardiff City at the Kassam Stadium is a tough one to call.

Both teams started the season with games that finished 1-0, but while Cardiff were causing a minor upset thanks to a late Kenny Miller goal against West Ham, Oxford suffered an opening day defeat against Rotherham up in Yorkshire. Back at home for the first competitive game of the season, Oxford should lineup with much the same side, possibly with the addition of Lewis Guy, signed on loan from Milton Keynes.

Cardiff meanwhile are set to be much changed as a result of the internationals taking place this week. Sunday's hero Kenny Miller is away with Scotland, while the influential Rob Earnshaw and Kevin McNaughton will also be missing. However, Stephen McPhail may return from injury and Gestede, who came of the bench on Sunday, may be in for start.

Several Championship sides felt the pain of losing players to international duty last night, none more so than Hull who were tipped here and lost 2-0 at home to Macclesfield. With that in mind, even at a best price 5/4, backing Cardiff does not appeal against an Oxford United side that have the talent to make real progress in League 2. In James Contestable and Lewis Guy the U's have the prowess to cause the visitors plenty of problems, but the 5/2 about the hosts also seems about right and does not scream value.

In the end, even with Miller and Earnshaw missing for Cardiff, the best bet on offer looks to be 'Both to score' at a seemingly generous 5/6 at Stan James. Oxford have the capability to score as mentioned above, while Cardiff themselves will expect to get on the scoresheet against the lower opposition. In a game where all three results look correctly priced up, it seems best to sit back and cheer for goals on this occassion.

Suggestion:

1pt 'Both teams to score' @ 5/6 @ Stan James

Tuesday Review

Summary of Bets:

Two wins - Accrington Stanley 0-2 Scunthorpe United (7/5)

                  Derby County 2-3 Shrewsbury Town (5/1)


Two losses - Hull City (-1) 0-2 Macclesfield Town

                     Stevenage 2-2 Peterborough United

Overall, a very pleasing night! Scunthorpe did the job in the second half at Accrington, but the stars were certainly Shrewsbury who delivered at 5/1. Even those of us who fancied them to do well would have been shocked by their early 3-0 lead, and despite something of a Derby fightback, Shrewsbury held on for the 3-2 win.

Peterborough threw away two leads at Stevenage to cost a success there, but my one blunder was Hull City. I clearly under-estimated the affect of losing key players to international duty and over-estimated their desire to make up for their opening night home defeat against Blackpool.

Elsewhere, I was secretly pleased to see Barnsley, Nottingham Forest and Portsmouth fail to deliver at short-odds and vindicate my avoidance policy, while Bury delivered a 3-1 win against Coventry in a game where some may have been tempted in by a respectable price on the home win.

TOTAL PROFIT: 6.4 points based on 1pt level stakes across all selections

TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 4.23 points

Tuesday Selections

Due the fact that I am moving house this week, there has been not a great deal of time for the reasoning behind these selections - but here are the Tuesday night Carling Cup suggestions.

Accrington Stanley v SCUNTHORPE @ 7/5 @ VC, Sportingbet, Coral, 32Red

Scunthorpe have an awful record in the League Cup, losing 22 of 24 away ties and finishing with elimination in the first round in 12 of the last 18 seasons. However, Scunthorpe played very well by all accounts against Wycombe on Saturday en route to a 1-1 draw, while Accrington were held at home against Aldershot. With similar lineups expected to take to the field for both sides tonight, Scunthorpe are a touch of value at 7/5 to outshine their League 2 opponents.

Derby County v SHREWSBURY @ 5/1 @ Stan James

Another two teams that have a record in this competition that hardly inspires, but Shrewsbury can add to Derby's failures against League 2 opposition with an upset at Pride Park. Shrewsbury were denied victory over Plymouth by a 90th minute goal on Saturday, but at 5/1 they represent value in this encounter.

Stevenage v PETERBOROUGH @ 6/4 @ various

Stevenage held Exeter at the Lamex Stadium (Broadhall Way) on Saturday, but they should be outclassed by Peterborough even if Darren Ferguson chooses to rotate some of his squad. Posh's attacking style should see them through without too much fuss against Graham Westley's physical side.

HULL CITY -1 v Macclesfield @ 5/7 @ Bodog

The only trustwothy short-priced handicap bet of the night should be Hull against Macclefield of League 2. Hull were undeservedly booed after an excellent display by Blackpool in their 1-0 win on Friday night, and will be desperate to get back into a winning mode tonight in front of their own fans. Macclesfield have lost 11 of 12 twelve away matches in this competition, and while Hull are without six players on international duty, Macclesfield's won injury problems temper the possible affect of squad changes.

AFC Diamonds Play First Match

On an aside to the betting, I was lucky enough to watch a very mini piece of football history today as AFC RUSHDEN AND DIAMONDS took to the field for the first time against Raunds Town reserves at Kiln Park in Raunds – the ground that both teams will share this season.
The tale of the quick demise of Rushden from the Conference has been well told elsewhere on the internet, not to mention the added salt in the wounds situation of bitter rivals Kettering Town taking up residence at the Diamonds Nene Park home. However, today was not about bitterness or sadness, it was about the joy of watching the brand new phoenix club take to the field for the first time.

The 3-0 scoreline favoured Raunds at the end, but it was almost incidental to the day as the dedicated hard work of a few supporters resulted in the presence of a Diamonds team once again kicking a ball in anger – or at least with the desire to score. Rushden will field only an U18’s team this season, with a view to a senior team entering the United Counties League next season, but the more than 200 fans in attendance on this Saturday were just proud to have a club to support once more.

Diamonds host an open fans meeting at Raunds on Tuesday evening, with their next friendly against Thrapston Town, at Wellingborough Whitworths, this Thursday. I’m sure news of these events will reach this blog!


Official afcdiamonds website

Rushden and Diamonds Fans Forum

Saturday Review

The first Saturday of the season was certainly something of a thriller, with a host of interesting storylines and new information to put in the notebook. In particular:

·         NOTTINGHAM FOREST are clearly still a work in progress as many people predicted after their 0-0 draw at home to Barnsley.

·         All the Championship new boys – BRIGHTON, SOUTHAMPTON and PETERBOROUGH – were victorious, but some of the football played by the Saints was sublime, and they will be a team that can claim many scalps, especially at home.

·         The game at Ashton Gate may reveal a lot about the prospects for both Ipswich and Bristol City, or at least one of them. Michael Chopra could prove to be a fantastic signing for the Tractor Boys and he could have made no better start today for Paul Jewell.

Obviously, drawing conclusions from one game would be quite the opposite of sensible, but still, football is back and that is something that provides genuine topics for conversation that don’t necessarily revolve around the theoretical.

SUMMARY OF BETS:

One win – Brentford 2-0 Yeovil

One no bet – Stevenage 0-0 Exeter

Three losses – Walsall 1-0 Leyton Orient
                         
                          Shrewsbury 1-1 Plymouth (90^th minute heartbreak!)

                          Preston 2-4 Colchester

TOTAL LOSS: 2.17pts based on 1pt level stakes across all matches as suggested

Saturday Selections

The first weekend of the new football league season is an absolute minefield – even more so than the betting on some well researched friendlies and Europa League ties that have been the fodder for many during the last weeks. Nearly all of the sides are unknown quantities to at least some degree and gaining a reliable edge over the oddsmakers at this stage is a tough proposition.

However, this being a betting blog it would be a pretty poor effort not to have a go, and in that spirit there are a few teams whose ante-post value could also point towards some early season profit. Even so, stakes probably ought to be small at this time of year while the sun is still shining and no-one is worried whether the game at Macclesfield will it make it past the pitch inspection.

Links to previews are able for three of the five selections below. The reasoning for the remaining two:

Exeter and Leyton Orient both have excellent draw no bet claims, as they travel away to teams who are expected to be at the bottom end of League One. For all of the good feeling around Stevenage, their promotion to League One came in spite of a poor home record verses the top sides in League 2 last season. Further, their opening match in the Football League a season ago – with all of its hype and expectation – saw them have to come from behind to scrape a 2-2 draw with lowly Macclesfield. A feel good factor will not be enough to push Stevenage over the line against Exeter City.

Leyton Orient, meanwhile, look very much like a dark horse playoff contender on paper with excellent manager Russell Slade at the helm and a selection of summer signings that include Jamie Cureton and Marc Laird. After only just missing out on the playoffs, Orient are value to steal an opening day win against a Walsall side who look destined for a finish at the lower end of the league (even if they should improve on their relegation form of a year ago).

SUGGESTIONS:

BRENTFORD v Yeovil – 1pt @ 5/6 @ Blue Square, 888 Sport and Coral

PRESTON NORTH END v Colchester – 1pt @ 5/6 @ Bet365

DRAW NO BET – Stevenage v EXETER – 1pt @ 6/4 @ Bet365 and William Hill

DRAW NO BET – Walsall v LEYTON ORIENT – 1pt @ Evs @ Paddy Power, Skybet and Unibet

SHREWSBURY v Plymouth – 1pt @ 10/11 @ various (11/12 @ 32Red)

Results will be posted by close of Saturday - all comments welcome!

Shrewsbury Town v Plymouth Argyle

The case has been made to me, rather convincingly, that if Plymouth Argyle were in the Football Conference, they would not be allowed to start the season. However, despite their frankly awful financial predicament, the fans of the Pilgrims will be able to take their minds away from off the field issues for at least 90 minutes tomorrow as they head to Greenhous Meadow to take on Graham Turner’s Shrewsbury.

Shrewsbury fans have some reason to feel bitter at still being in League 2 after coming so close to automatic promotion in 10/11, but Graham Turner has managed to hold onto a very competitive squad for the new season. Marvin Morgan has come in from Aldershot to boost the depth of the frontline, and with the bulk of the squad maintained Shrewsbury will once again be aiming to be there or thereabouts. One concern is that Joe Jacobson, impressive in pre-season, will be missing thanks to a suspension.

For Plymouth, the farce of creditors and players not being paid is becoming almost old hat now, but veteran manager Peter Reid has done a tremendous job to keep a squad together that still possesses the ability to create some problems for their opponents. Warren Feeney adds more of a goal scoring potential to the squad as well as key experience for what will be a young starting eleven overall, but on the road against a team as talented and secure as Shrewsbury, Plymouth can expect a difficult start to the season.

 

SUGGESTION:

SHREWSBURY – 1pt @ 10/11 @ various (11/12 @ 32Red)

Preston North End v Colchester United

For a team with a former Premiership manager who has been outspoken and oddly bronzed during his career, Preston have hardly been attracting the publicity that other northern sides have been getting used to in League One. However, while the likes of Huddersfield, Sheffield Wednesday and Sheffield United may enjoy the focus of most of the attention at the moment, Preston may be the most trustworthy side in the division this season.
 

Phil Brown made great strides with North End prior to their relegation from the Championship a year ago and actually saw his side relegated with some decent form. The ‘Brown Bounce’ was more than the improvement in results that many relegated sides enjoy once the pressure is off, Preston played genuinely better football to end their stay in the Championship and Brown has considerable pedigree in the Football League - even if some have doubted his ability at the highest level.

 

North End’s main strength in 11/12 comes from the goal scoring ability provided by Iain Hume and Neil Mellor. Colchester meanwhile look weak in exactly this department heading into the new campaign and the difficulty of the task has not been played down by John Ward in the media this week. At just a shade of odds on, the hosts look value to kick off what could turn into a very successful campaign with a win – although one should be remember from Norwich that taking a spanking from Colchester on the opening day of the season is not always a bad thing.

SUGGESTION:

PRESTON NORTH END – 1pt @ 5/6 @ Bet365

Brentford v Yeovil Town

The money has been coming in for Brentford during the pre-season and Uwe Rosler’s men could not wish for a better start than a home opener against relegation candidates Yeovil.

Comparisons between the new Brentford manager and Gus Poyet, who won the League with Brighton a year ago, are far too premature to be taken seriously, but there are some convincing signs that Brentford are moving in the right direction. In signing Clayton Donaldson, Brentford have a player who scored 29 times for Crewe a season ago in League Two,  has bags of potential and should adapt to the demands of League One football readily. Goal scoring should also be helped by the Bees creative but stiff midfield that has been bolstered with loan players from Celtic and West Brom and a promising pre-season suggests that Brentford could be a force to reckoned with for some of the bigger guns on the fixture list.

Yeovil, not one of those bigger guns, meanwhile have shown ability in recent seasons not only to survive in League One but to do so with some comfort. Indeed, Brentford were one of a number of away scalps for the Glovers last season, but with a young squad that has not been bolstered over the summer with any key signings, it is possible that the south west club may be standing still while others around them are moving forward. Yeovil have defied the odds in League One ever since their promotion and their fans may suggest that I am falling into a trap that has caught many before me, but Brentford look value at only a shade of odds on to set the tone for the very different campaigns that both of these sides could be in for.

SUGGESTION:

BRENTFORD  – 1pt @ 5/6 @ Blue Square, 888 Sport and Coral

Hull City 0-1 Blackpool

If the return of this blog carried with it no great fanfare, the return of Blackpool to the Championship was hardly front-page news either. Despite becoming the darling side of many a neutral a year ago with their free-flowing, attacking and attractive style of play, few expected Blackpool to make much of an impact on the top end of a fiercely competitive Championship this season.

With the spending power of West Ham and Leicester, alongside perennial contenders such as Nottingham Forest, Reading and Cardiff, Blackpool have hardly dropped down to a level where they can be assured of being one of the ‘big dogs’ in the league. Indeed, the short list of teams above does not include the sides that many people expect to make a run from the middle of the pack – Ipswich (whom I believe can make the playoffs), Brighton, Southampton, Leeds, Middlesbrough, Burnley and their Friday night opponents Hull City to name just a few.

However, after watching Ian Holloway’s men on Friday, my mind at least has been changed on the potential of this Blackpool team to mount a serious assault on the Championship playoffs. Yes, losing Charlie Adam to Liverpool would hurt any side, not to mention the late sale of D.J. Campbell during the pre-season, but the Blackpool skill and thirst for goals was as evident as ever at the KC Stadium. Some of the football in the second half was nothing short of magnificent, as the Blackpool midfield seemed to have a magnetic control of the football going forward. The overall ability to turn the sublime skill into killer passes and, ultimately, game-changing goals is still something that we have to wait more than 90 minutes to judge, but the signs are positive for Holloway’s men. In the goal scored by Gary Taylor-Fletcher, Blackpool showed that a pretty flick pass can set up a chance and that Taylor-Fletcher has the ability to do something that a host of Hull players cannot – smash the ball into the back of the net. This is not an Arsenal style of toothless, if pretty, passing – Blackpool genuinely mean it when they come forward.

Winning promotion may be a long way off for Blackpool even with this impressive start to the season, but worries that their stint in the top-flight, and their spiral out of it, may have dampened the mood around the club were dispelled with the gritty and, at times, thrilling display of football. Nearly all eleven players punched the air as the full-time whistle went – there is a fire that still remains within this team, and whether or not they ultimately fall short of a top six place (defensive frailties would have been exposed had Hull not continued last season’s lacklustre play in front of goal) Blackpool must still be respected as a side that present an interesting betting proposition as the season goes on.

90 minutes into the new season, and already I have learned something new from a fascinating night of football. Bring on Saturday.

The Return...

Amid great fanfare*, I have returned to the world of blogging with the intention of developing ‘thetippingpoint’ into a sports betting blog phenomenon. Or, at least, developing it into a blog read by at least three separate people a day – either way I’ll be making some headway.

I enjoyed writing this blog immensely when I had the time to dedicate to it during the Christmas holidays a year ago, and managed to turn a profit in that time – receiving some kind comments along the way. Non-blog related work commitments then returned to take over, but with those rescinding once again on a more permanent basis, I hope to have the time to update the blog on as near to a daily basis as possible.

 

The focus will continue to be on football – both the English and American versions, but most of all I hope for sound reasoning for my selections that can foster discussion, and to turn a profit. If I can do that, then this blog can be considered a success. I hope you enjoy reading.

 

*My fiancée has not lifted her head from her book, and the dog continues to lie sleepily on the floor.