Favourites likely in charge

The Wednesday night action in the Carling Cup does not throw up a great deal in terms of genuine betting opportunities, with the majority of games affected by squad rotations from both teams. This adds the irritating air of mystery to the majority of games that puts them firmly into 'no bet' territory.

Changes, for example, are expected for both Southampton and Preston in their contest at St. Mary's, while the intriguing clash between Leicester and Cardiff in South Wales will likely see both managers blooding a number of new faces from outside their first choice eleven.

Brighton fans, players and staff are of course excited for the visit of Liverpool to south coast on Sky Sports this evening, but again manager Gus Poyet could leave a few key faces out of his Championship side with a packed set of fixtures on the horizon. Steven Gerrard could return for Liverpool from the bench, and Kenny Dagleish did put out a strong side in the previous round of the competition when the Reds won comfortably against League One Exeter. However, a best price of 8/13 about the visitors is enough to deter any interest from a betting perspective (general).

The value may come tonight in opposing those sides who have extra reason to view the Carling Cup as an unnecessary distraction. Neither Fulham nor Birmingham are blessed with huge squads and both are heavily involved in Europa League action this season, as well as the Premiership and Championship respectively. Both sides are away to Premiership title chasers tonight, as Fulham prepare for a West London derby against Chelsea while Birmingham travel to face Manchester City. Again, all four sides will ring the changes, but the immense depth of quality that the top three sides in the Premier League possess was highlighted by the way that Manchester United dealt with Leeds United last night. Chelsea's youngsters and Manchester City's reserves (Hargreaves and possibly Tevez included) should both deal comfortably with their weakened opponents tonight - lets not forget that Fulham barely had an off-season after qualifying for the Europa League meant competitive action in July.

Suggestion:

3pts MANCHESTER CITY (1/5) v Birmingham and CHELSEA (4/9) v Fulham double @ William Hill.
Odds = 0.73/1

Saturday Review

The first Saturday of the season was certainly something of a thriller, with a host of interesting storylines and new information to put in the notebook. In particular:

·         NOTTINGHAM FOREST are clearly still a work in progress as many people predicted after their 0-0 draw at home to Barnsley.

·         All the Championship new boys – BRIGHTON, SOUTHAMPTON and PETERBOROUGH – were victorious, but some of the football played by the Saints was sublime, and they will be a team that can claim many scalps, especially at home.

·         The game at Ashton Gate may reveal a lot about the prospects for both Ipswich and Bristol City, or at least one of them. Michael Chopra could prove to be a fantastic signing for the Tractor Boys and he could have made no better start today for Paul Jewell.

Obviously, drawing conclusions from one game would be quite the opposite of sensible, but still, football is back and that is something that provides genuine topics for conversation that don’t necessarily revolve around the theoretical.

SUMMARY OF BETS:

One win – Brentford 2-0 Yeovil

One no bet – Stevenage 0-0 Exeter

Three losses – Walsall 1-0 Leyton Orient
                         
                          Shrewsbury 1-1 Plymouth (90^th minute heartbreak!)

                          Preston 2-4 Colchester

TOTAL LOSS: 2.17pts based on 1pt level stakes across all matches as suggested

Saturday Selections

The first weekend of the new football league season is an absolute minefield – even more so than the betting on some well researched friendlies and Europa League ties that have been the fodder for many during the last weeks. Nearly all of the sides are unknown quantities to at least some degree and gaining a reliable edge over the oddsmakers at this stage is a tough proposition.

However, this being a betting blog it would be a pretty poor effort not to have a go, and in that spirit there are a few teams whose ante-post value could also point towards some early season profit. Even so, stakes probably ought to be small at this time of year while the sun is still shining and no-one is worried whether the game at Macclesfield will it make it past the pitch inspection.

Links to previews are able for three of the five selections below. The reasoning for the remaining two:

Exeter and Leyton Orient both have excellent draw no bet claims, as they travel away to teams who are expected to be at the bottom end of League One. For all of the good feeling around Stevenage, their promotion to League One came in spite of a poor home record verses the top sides in League 2 last season. Further, their opening match in the Football League a season ago – with all of its hype and expectation – saw them have to come from behind to scrape a 2-2 draw with lowly Macclesfield. A feel good factor will not be enough to push Stevenage over the line against Exeter City.

Leyton Orient, meanwhile, look very much like a dark horse playoff contender on paper with excellent manager Russell Slade at the helm and a selection of summer signings that include Jamie Cureton and Marc Laird. After only just missing out on the playoffs, Orient are value to steal an opening day win against a Walsall side who look destined for a finish at the lower end of the league (even if they should improve on their relegation form of a year ago).

SUGGESTIONS:

BRENTFORD v Yeovil – 1pt @ 5/6 @ Blue Square, 888 Sport and Coral

PRESTON NORTH END v Colchester – 1pt @ 5/6 @ Bet365

DRAW NO BET – Stevenage v EXETER – 1pt @ 6/4 @ Bet365 and William Hill

DRAW NO BET – Walsall v LEYTON ORIENT – 1pt @ Evs @ Paddy Power, Skybet and Unibet

SHREWSBURY v Plymouth – 1pt @ 10/11 @ various (11/12 @ 32Red)

Results will be posted by close of Saturday - all comments welcome!

Preston North End v Colchester United

For a team with a former Premiership manager who has been outspoken and oddly bronzed during his career, Preston have hardly been attracting the publicity that other northern sides have been getting used to in League One. However, while the likes of Huddersfield, Sheffield Wednesday and Sheffield United may enjoy the focus of most of the attention at the moment, Preston may be the most trustworthy side in the division this season.
 

Phil Brown made great strides with North End prior to their relegation from the Championship a year ago and actually saw his side relegated with some decent form. The ‘Brown Bounce’ was more than the improvement in results that many relegated sides enjoy once the pressure is off, Preston played genuinely better football to end their stay in the Championship and Brown has considerable pedigree in the Football League - even if some have doubted his ability at the highest level.

 

North End’s main strength in 11/12 comes from the goal scoring ability provided by Iain Hume and Neil Mellor. Colchester meanwhile look weak in exactly this department heading into the new campaign and the difficulty of the task has not been played down by John Ward in the media this week. At just a shade of odds on, the hosts look value to kick off what could turn into a very successful campaign with a win – although one should be remember from Norwich that taking a spanking from Colchester on the opening day of the season is not always a bad thing.

SUGGESTION:

PRESTON NORTH END – 1pt @ 5/6 @ Bet365