THE Navy Midshipman will be feeling right at home in Qualcomm Stadium on Thursday night, as they take on San Diego State University in the Poinsettia Bowl. Heavy rain in southern California, itself a rare event, has left nearly 10 inches of muddy water on the field heading into Thursday’s game, and though bowl officials have been loudly declaring that the game will start as scheduled, the mud-bath promises to have an impact on the type of game that ends up taking place.
Navy will also have plenty support in the stadium for the game, the city of San Diego is home to the largest naval base on America’s west coast, and the success that those fans wish to see from their football team will likely need to be inspired by Navy’s three-pronged rushing attack. Led by Ricky Dobbs, Navy boasts a rush-offence that averages 289 yards per game, a total that was 5th best in the nation. Dobbs is the stereotypical ‘option’ quarterback, and the senior will end an excellent career with Navy on Thursday.
How much a muddy field with affect the potency of Navy’s run game will be important, however, as Navy’s attack is far superior on the ground than through the air. That said, San Diego State will have their own plans to foil the naval running game. The Aztecs ranked third in run defence in the Mountain West Conference, and in head coach Brady Hoke, the Aztecs have a talented coach who has been able to game plan for Navy for several weeks. San Diego State defensive co-ordinator Rocky Long was also head coach of New Mexico in 2004, when he watched Navy run their way to victory in the Emerald Bowl – there will be no shortage of planning to deal with Navy’s triple threat attack.
On the other side of the matchup, San Diego State’s own offence has the ability to put up big points. Ryan Lindley was the top quarterback in the Mountain West Conference this season, while running back Ronnie Hillman broke freshman rushing records. The Aztecs offence is far more balanced than Navy’s, something that could become a major factor depending on how the field plays as the game moves on.
San Diego State, despite going 8-4 to Navy’s 9-3, also boasts some impressive performances this season. The Aztecs lost by only 5 points to undefeated TCU, lost by only 4 points to #20 Utah, lost by three on the road to bowl bound by BYU and, again, by only three on the road against Missouri. Four losses they may be, but San Diego State boasts impressive losses coupled with their 8 victories. SDSU also has the advantage in games against common opponents, having beaten Air Force 27-25, while Navy lost to the same team 14-6. Navy’s notable win was against Notre Dame, but a loss against Duke failed to add anything positive to their resume. They do, however, come into the contest on a four game winning streak.
San Diego State is clearly better than their 8-4 record might immediately suggest, and that is why they should be backed to win tonight. The Aztecs first bowl game in over a decade is some achievement by itself, but SDSU players have not been allowed to get ahead of themselves. Playing at home will also stop the team from getting too distracted by bowl festivities. Navy, meanwhile, are becoming bowl veterans, but their one-dimensional offence will not be enough against a stout defence and a well balanced SDSU attack. Take San Diego State to win their first bowl game since 1969.
SUGGESTION:
San Diego State Aztecs WIN (4/6 @ Sportingbet, Stan James and William Hill)
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