Brighton 3-3 Leeds

I predicted excitement at the AMEX Stadium on Friday night, and the contest between Brighton and Leeds duly turned into a thriller. However, despite the six goals in total, one key prediction did not come to fruition.

CHECKLIST (pre-game expectations):

Over 2.5 goals - Check
Leeds pose real attacking threat - Check
Craig Mackail Smith to make impact - Check
Leeds to score a crucial goal late on - Check
Leeds to avoid crucial defensive errors and win - FAIL

Talk about coming close. The visitors were 2-0 to the good before half an hour had been played after Ross McCormack had doubled Andy Keogh's early strike. That lead was maintained comfortably into the second half, before the madness descended upon the United defence. First, Craig Mackail-Smith was allowed to move into the box to cut the deficit in half with a cool, low finish across the goalkeeper. Then, soon after, Leigh Bromby dived in for no real reason on Mackail-Smith in the box - setting up a penalty that Ashley Barnes converted in the same efficient fashion as he did against Liverpool on Wednesday.

At 2-2, Leeds were shell shocked after having three points seemingly locked up. Worse was to come for the travelling supporters when Mackail-Smith tapped in from close range late on to seemingly secure the win for the hosts. However, McCormack grabbed a second late in injury time to grab Leeds a point at the death.

A hideously frustrating night for Leeds backers - especially those of us who turned down the draw-no-bet option, only to see Leeds do exactly as I suggested they might and push on to score a goal at the death that would change the game. On a night that should have seen profit, Leeds could not escape from themselves, and defensive errors blew the away victory for them.

Summary of Bets


One loser: Brighton v LEEDS 1pt @ 13/5


One winner: Over 2.5 goals 1pt @ 8/11


Total Loss: 0.27 points


Total Loss for season: 2.21 points

Brighton v Leeds Tips

Brighton against Leeds may not sound like the most interesting game of the weekend, but those who tune-in to Sky Sports tonight could well be in for a treat.

Both clubs come into the contest on the back of high profile, nationally televised, Carling Cup defeats during the week. Leeds travel to the south coast 72 hours after a home defeat against Manchester United, while Brighton are back in action at the AMEX Stadium just 48 hours after they were beaten 2-1 by Liverpool. Both of those contests were viewed through the prism of this match by both respective clubs, and though Leeds have the advantage of the extra day of rest, that should be negated by the fact that Brighton have not had to travel during the week.

The ‘home factor’ will also be playing on the minds of both sets of fans. After promotion from League One last season, the Seagulls are enjoying every minute of playing in their new home, and goalkeeper Casper Ankergren (playing against his former employers tonight) has not been the only Brighton player to outline the effect of playing in front of full houses rather than with the dreadful atmosphere ‘created’ more often than not at the Withdean Stadium. The 12^th man has certainly been useful to Gus Poyet’s talented side so far this campaign, with Albion unbeaten at home in the league (3 games/2 wins) and also despatching Gillingham and Premier League Sunderland in the Carling Cup. They will certainly be looking to bounce back after the home defeat to Liverpool was their first failure at their new home in competitive football.

The hosts lay third in the division after a 1-0 away defeat to Leicester last Saturday but will still boast a dangerous attacking threat. That defeat was Brighton’s first goalless effort of the new season, and although Craig Mackail-Smith has only bagged three goals this term he remains a potent threat for opposition defences. However, influential midfielder Will Buckley misses out for the hosts after aggravating a hamstring injury in the game against Liverpool.

Leeds themselves have no injury problems as they head the south coast, and Simon Grayson should have a full twenty-man squad to choose from tonight. That could mean a return for Luciano Becchio, while Billy Paynter also returns from injury. These returns leave Grayson with no shortage of attacking options at his own disposal, and with Ross McCormack already on seven goals in all competitions so far this season, Leeds have the firepower to trouble the Brighton defence repeatedly. However, all has not gone well for United on their travels so far this season. They have not won any of their three away trips in the league, a campaign that started off with the equivalent of a 3-1 mauling at Southampton, where the scoreline fails to tell the full story. An equaliser with the last kick off the game at West Ham salvaged a point in East London, but defeat at stuttering Ipswich hardly put concerns to bed.

However, Grayson has been happy with his sides’ efforts away from home despite those results, and their may well be good reason for confidence beyond the headline figures. Leeds were in control at Ipswich, and in the lead, before they were reduced to ten-men shortly after the interval and then only succumbed to a stoppage time defeat. Arguably, a point was the least that they deserved at West Ham after bossing most of the second half and they did defeat Doncaster 2-1 away from home in the Carling Cup.

Wins have just about been coming at Elland Road for Leeds as well, with Hull being put to the sword 4-1 in August, before late goals were enough to see off Crystal Palace (3-2) and Bristol City (2-1). It is hardly stellar form, but there may be some truth to Grayson’s words of confidence in the performances of his team, and with the attacking capabilities and ability to battle on and score late goals, it is hard to count out Leeds’ chances tonight.

I tipped over 3.5 goals in the midweek Leeds v Man Utd encounter only to be scuppered by the host’s inability to find the back of the net. Goals look certain to be on the cards again tonight, however, in what promises to be an exciting encounter, and 8/11 about over 2.5 goals looks just about big enough to be of interest. While there may be some concern that the short-week could catch up with both sets of players, both sides, especially Leeds, have the depth of quality in their squads to still be able to score goals.

Indeed, it is the depth of quality that the visitors possess, alongside the absence of Will Buckley for Brighton, that also makes Leeds stand out as valuable options on their own. Given the 13/8 available on the draw-no-bet market, and the 13/5 available about the straight-up away win, I’m opting to put trust in the visitors to complete the job and come away with the three points they have been waiting for on the road. Brighton will ultimately end up with a very good home record this season, but Leeds are primed to inflict the first home league defeat upon the Seagulls.

SUGGESTION:

Over 2.5 goals. 1pt @ 8/11 (Boylesports and Skybet)

Leeds win 1pt @ 13/5 (various – including Stan James) 

Tuesday Results

Oh dear! Not quite the night that I had planned, but not a complete disaster either...

BURNLEY 2-1 MK Dons - First up is the positive result of the night, as Burnley just about delivered the win at Evens. They were hardly convincing however, being 1-0 down early on and only striking home the winning goal in the 89th minute.

Aldershot 2-1 Rochdale (Under 2.5) -The goals in this one came each time an unders backer would just about start to feel confident. Rochdale opened the scoring just prior to half-time, with Aldershot equalising immediately after the break. Defeat for both the visitors and the selection came in the 78th minute as Aldershot advanced to the Fourth Round for the first time in their history.

Leeds 0-3 Manchester United (Over 3.5) - Defeat as an overs backer this time, again by just one goal, in what I think is a justifiably unlucky outcome. Man Utd were 3-0 up before half-time as Michael Owen bagged a brace and Ryan Giggs put the outcome beyond reasonable doubt. However, no goals came at all in the second half, Leeds spurning a great one-on-one chance in the final seconds to leave the total goals at three.

TAMWORTH 0-1 Forest Green Rovers - The nap selection of the night was ironically the tip that was furthest from the mark. Forest Green maintained their excellent start to the season away from home (still unbeaten) thanks to an early own-goal when Paul Green deflected the ball into his own net. Tamworth's first home defeat of the year came despite them hitting the bar in the second half.


Summary of Bets


One winner: BURNLEY v MK Dons 1pt at Evs

Three losers: TAMWORTH v Forest Green Rovers 2pts @ 5/4
                     Aldershot v Rochdale Under 2.5 1pt @ Evs
                     Leeds v Man Utd Over 3.5 1pt @ 6/5

Total Loss: 3 points


TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 1.06 points

Check back later today for the selections for matches this evening.

Tuesday Selections

Four games with selections tonight as the Carling Cup and Blue Square Premier take the spotlight on the domestic scene.

BURNLEY (1pt) v MK Dons

UNDER 2.5 (1pt) Aldershot v Rochdale

OVER 3.5 (1pt) Leeds v Man Utd

TAMWORTH (2pts) v Forest Green

An outlay of 5pts on the night, check back this evening for a review of the selections.

Goals Should Flow in TV Game

There are plenty of reasons to be expecting goals as Manchester United travel to Elland Road take on rivals Leeds in the Carling Cup tonight. United will of course ring the changes for the Carling Cup, but the immense depth of their squad means that they can still field a starting line-up that many teams in the Premiership would relish. In real terms, that means that both Michael Owen and Dimitar Berbatov may be in line for a chance to start, alongside more youngsters who will be desperate to impress Sir Alex. Indeed, the fantastic start that the Champions have made to the new season will only increase the importance of this game for those players that are chosen to play, as competition for places is extremely fierce at the club and no chance to impress can be turned down or taken for granted.

Leeds, meanwhile, will be desperate to channel the spirit of two years ago when they travelled to Old Trafford to win 1-0 in the third round of the FA Cup. That fact may ensure that Sir Alex is able to drill his squad into line, with the evidence clear that Leeds will never take it easy against their bitter rivals. However, this match will not define Leeds’ season whether they win or lose, and Simon Grayson will already have one and a half eyes on their Friday night trip to Brighton. That is not to say that this game is of little importance to Leeds, but some element of squad rotation may be forced upon the home side if there are any niggles picked up or if the game heads towards extra-time.

The bookmakers are hardly taking any chances on Manchester United and that is no surprise given their fiery start to the season. However, 4/7 on the visitors winning is just too short for an outlay on any away team in the Carling Cup, especially in the light of the feelings between these two clubs. Of more interest are goals bets, given that Leeds have yet to keep a clean sheet this season and have themselves only failed to score in one game. Only one Leeds game this season has had less than three goals, and five times games involving Leeds have had four goals or more. Their last Carling Cup home game saw Leeds defeat Bradford 3-2, while they were 2-1 winners away at Doncaster in another Yorkshire derby.

Manchester United have of course been in the goals themselves plenty this season. Their 8-2 hammering of Arsenal will go into folk lore, but a 5-0 win at Bolton was itself quite special. However, given the probable change of line-up for tonight, of more relevance may be United’s exploits in the Carling Cup last season. All three games in which United played saw at least four goals, as they won 5-2 at Scunthorpe, beat Wolves 3-2 and lost 4-0 at West Ham. There is no reason not to expect goals tonight, and with that in mind, take the line above the normal overs and expect over 3.5 goals at Elland Road.

Suggestion:

Leeds United v Manchester United: 1pt Over 3.5 goals @ 6/5 (Ladbrokes) (2.38 on Betfair)