Tamworth value in BSP

Luton Town will be the banker bet of many punters in the Blue Square Premier tonight, but instead of taking the Hatters to win at 4/7 at Bath, the real value could lay in trusting Tamworth to pick up all three points at home to Forest Green.

The bookmakers do not seem to have properly responded to the excellent start to the season made by Marcus Law and the Lambs, who lay in 6^th place – 10 places and seven points ahead of their visitors from Gloucestershire. Tamworth have already despatched York (2-1), Darlington (1-0) and Ebbsfleet (1-0) at home this campaign, only being held to a 2-2 draw by Telford on their own patch, in a game where the hosts had built a 2-0 lead. A 2-0 win against the cuckoos from K*ttering last time out was convincing enough to provide yet more security to the idea that Tamworth may find comfort in mid table this season. Ambitious manager Marcus Law will hardly be wanting to rest on his laurels however, and will be desperate to secure three more points on their own turf.

As for the visitors, Forest Green do bring an unbeaten away record with them to the West Midlands. Three 1-1 draws have been secured against Luton, Ebbsfleet and Cambridge – results that are not to be dismissed – alongside a 6-1 thrashing of Alfreton. However, the draw at Luton was the Hatters first game of the season, and a 3-2 home defeat against Southport on Saturday hardly inspires confidence that Rovers will be capable of escaping another relegation dogfight this season. Rovers also provided out of form Grimsby with a 1-0 win in their previous home game, and while they certainly have a chance of gaining a point tonight, Tamworth have put themselves in a class above Forest Green so far this season. Indeed, FGR manager David Hockaday has already highlighted the similarities in style between Southport and Tamworth and has warned his players to bring their ‘tin hats’ for the game this evening.

At a best priced 5/4, Tamworth cannot be ignored tonight and should be able to continue their impressive start to the season.

SUGGESTION:

Tamworth – 2pts win @ 5/4 (Bet365, Victor Chandler)

Goals Should Flow in TV Game

There are plenty of reasons to be expecting goals as Manchester United travel to Elland Road take on rivals Leeds in the Carling Cup tonight. United will of course ring the changes for the Carling Cup, but the immense depth of their squad means that they can still field a starting line-up that many teams in the Premiership would relish. In real terms, that means that both Michael Owen and Dimitar Berbatov may be in line for a chance to start, alongside more youngsters who will be desperate to impress Sir Alex. Indeed, the fantastic start that the Champions have made to the new season will only increase the importance of this game for those players that are chosen to play, as competition for places is extremely fierce at the club and no chance to impress can be turned down or taken for granted.

Leeds, meanwhile, will be desperate to channel the spirit of two years ago when they travelled to Old Trafford to win 1-0 in the third round of the FA Cup. That fact may ensure that Sir Alex is able to drill his squad into line, with the evidence clear that Leeds will never take it easy against their bitter rivals. However, this match will not define Leeds’ season whether they win or lose, and Simon Grayson will already have one and a half eyes on their Friday night trip to Brighton. That is not to say that this game is of little importance to Leeds, but some element of squad rotation may be forced upon the home side if there are any niggles picked up or if the game heads towards extra-time.

The bookmakers are hardly taking any chances on Manchester United and that is no surprise given their fiery start to the season. However, 4/7 on the visitors winning is just too short for an outlay on any away team in the Carling Cup, especially in the light of the feelings between these two clubs. Of more interest are goals bets, given that Leeds have yet to keep a clean sheet this season and have themselves only failed to score in one game. Only one Leeds game this season has had less than three goals, and five times games involving Leeds have had four goals or more. Their last Carling Cup home game saw Leeds defeat Bradford 3-2, while they were 2-1 winners away at Doncaster in another Yorkshire derby.

Manchester United have of course been in the goals themselves plenty this season. Their 8-2 hammering of Arsenal will go into folk lore, but a 5-0 win at Bolton was itself quite special. However, given the probable change of line-up for tonight, of more relevance may be United’s exploits in the Carling Cup last season. All three games in which United played saw at least four goals, as they won 5-2 at Scunthorpe, beat Wolves 3-2 and lost 4-0 at West Ham. There is no reason not to expect goals tonight, and with that in mind, take the line above the normal overs and expect over 3.5 goals at Elland Road.

Suggestion:

Leeds United v Manchester United: 1pt Over 3.5 goals @ 6/5 (Ladbrokes) (2.38 on Betfair)

Cagey Encounter Expected

Dean Holdsworth has called on Aldershot fans to create a cup-final atmosphere tonight ahead of the visit of Rochdale in the Carling Cup. Since reforming, Aldershot have never reached this stage of the competition and the prospect of a place in the last 16 has certainly captured the minds of many at the club. It may be an ever more sweet achievement for Aldershot if they achieve it considering their difficult road to this stage – the ‘shots came back from 1-0 down to win at West Ham, before overcoming Carlisle 2-0 at home in round two.

The home side have no injury or suspension concerns and should be able to field a full strength line-up that Holdsworth is still hoping to push further. Since winning at West Ham in round one, Aldershot have not been beaten. On that run, they have secured two more home wins and a home draw, while they have secured six points from six in their last two matches – a 2-0 win at Hereford followed by a 1-0 win at Bristol Rovers. This should be keeping morale very high and with confidence brimming the hosts will present a real challenge tonight.

As for Rochdale, who are making the long journey south, they come into the contest on the back of frustrating 3-2 home loss against Charlton in a game where they will have been frustrated not to earn at least a point. However, while they may not have claimed the scalp of the ‘big boys’ in their own division, ‘dale have their own Carling Cup scalp to rival that of Aldershot’s. After an extra time win at home against Chesterfield in round one, Rochdale were 2-0 winners at QPR in round two, although Neil Warnock was publically hardly disappointed to lose that particular contest. Despite some disappointing away form in the league (losing at Sheffield Wednesday, Stevenage and Oldham), Rochdale appeared to strike a better vain of form when winning 4-2 at rivals Bury and defeating Scunthorpe 1-0 at Spotland. The performance against Charlton should keep belief around the club that they have turned a corner, and the only change forced upon the visitors tonight is in goal as on-loan Blackburn goalkeeper Jake Keane will be replaced by David Lucas.

As an away fan when Rushden and Diamonds made it to the Setanta Shield Final against Aldershot at the Recreation Ground, I can vouch first hand for the kind of ‘cup final’ atmosphere that Rochdale will face tonight. However, their 4-2 win at Bury has shown that this squad can cope with big atmospheres, and both of these sides have already defeated higher league opposition away from home in the Carling Cup this season. However, the prize of a fourth round place is a serious one for both clubs given their relative stature, and ultimately that fact and the atmosphere may lead to a tight contest.

Aldershot have not had more than 2 goals in a game since their victory at West Ham and only twice all season, neither of those games being at home. That run should be extended tonight, and unders is certainly the value call in this contest.

SUGGESTION:

Aldershot v Rochdale: 1pt UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ Evens (William Hill and various)

Changes aplenty for Dons

There are plenty of fascinating Carling Cup ties tonight and we begin with the matchup at Turf Moor.  MK Dons, 4^th placed in League One, head to Burnley with their minds focussed on another cup scalp after their demolition of Norwich in the last round. Milton Keynes stunned their Premiership opponents with a 4-0 away win, and have won five of their six away games this season. Their only loss came in their last away trip when they defeated 3-1 by Sheffield Wednesday.

However, manager Karl Robinson will likely have to field a side that is much changed tonight as he travels to Turf Moor with a number of reserves and academy players expected to feature. Defender Gary MacKenzie is suspended after what Robinson described as a “stupid” off the ball sending off against Bournemouth on Saturday as the Dons were held to a 1-1 draw at home.

As for Eddie Howe’s Burnley, they will be looking to regain some form after two consecutive losses in the Championship. Burnley were beaten 2-1 at Peterborough on Saturday, a result that came on the heels of a 2-0 home defeat against Middlesbrough. Indeed, Burnley’s home form has hardly been stellar this season – they have won just two of five home league games, and both of those were extra time successes against lower league opposition (6-3 v Burton Albion, 3-2 v Barnet). Burnley have also failed to keep a single clean sheet this season, but Howe has maintained that performances have been better than results have suggested and is keen to make the Carling Cup a catalyst to more success in the league.

Even money on a home win would not appeal in the slightest if you take the form of these two sides this season at face value. However, given the changes to the MK Dons side that have been forced upon Karl Robinson for tonight, Burnley should have enough to see off their high-flying League One opponents. Despite failing to record 90 minute victories against League Two opposition at home twice already this season, reaching the 4^th round will provide further motivation for Burnley than may have been present in those earlier round contests, and with the need to claim a first home win in normal time on the minds of individuals at the club, this will likely be the right night to achieve that feet.

Suggestion:

BURNLEY 1pt win @ Evens (William Hill and various)

Ipswich Town 3-0 Coventry City

A little bit of regret this morning that I do not go with the strong intuitive position I held in favour of Ipswich last night, as they began to show some of their undoubted class en route to a 3-0 victory against Coventry City.

The result was never really in doubt, especially after two goals in the opening fifteen minutes. Overs backers were no doubt delighted when Jason Scotland made it 3-0 with just over 20 minutes remaining, but unfortunately none of the three on target attempts from the visitors found the back of the net.

Check back later today for Carling Cup selections for matches tonight.

Summary of Bets:

One Loser: Ipswich v Coventry – ‘Both teams to score’ @ 8/11 (0.5pts)

TOTAL LOSS: 0.5 points
TOTAL RUNNING PROFIT FOR SEASON: 4.06 points

Monday Night Goals...

After what has seemed like an eternity of offline existence (thanks a lot Sky!) the blog is finally able to return for good this evening, and we return to live Championship football on Sky Sports.

At the beginning of the new season, many were already writing off the chances of Coventry City surviving in their battle against relegation this season. With a sustained lack of investment worrying even the most die-hard ‘sky blues’ fan, four consecutive defeats to begin the season (including a 3-1 defeat at League One side Bury in the Carling Cup) did nothing to instil any sense of renewed optimism.

However, since a 2-1 defeat at Crystal Palace on the 16^th of August (where Coventry took a 1-0 lead into stoppage time), Andy Thorn’s side have been unbeaten in three Championship matches, including an away draw at Middlesbrough and an impressive 2-0 home victory against Derby County.

The chances of this recent upturn in form being sustained through the contest tonight have been bolstered by the (BBC reported) news that Clive Platt and Gary McSheffrey both may return to the squad, while recent signing from Norwich Cody McDonald should be available to make his second start for the club, if Thorn opts to start him over Freddy Eastwood.

If Coventry were tipped as relegation certainties, many more pre-season comments were centred on the possibility of Ipswich being Championship dark-horses this season. However, the Tractor Boys start has been far more Eeyore than Shergar. With Paul Jewell at the helm, and signings such as Jimmy Bullard, Keith Andrews and Lee Bowyer, it is easy to see why many expected Ipswich to be pushing at the top end of the table. However, despite a 3-0 win at Bristol City on the opening day of the season, Ipswich find themselves just one point (6) and one place (17^th) above their rivals tonight. Defensively, Ipswich have provided much more in the way of feast rather than famine. Their 3-0 win in Bristol was the only game this season where they have kept a clean sheet, and losing 7-1 at Peterborough and 5-2 at Southampton have contributed heavily the worst defensive record in the division.

Town lost 2-0 last time out at Blackpool, and while their last home game saw them pick up a 2-1 victory against Leeds, that result was flattered by not only a stoppage time winner, but also by the fact that Leeds were reduced to 10 men when leading 1-0 on 50 minutes.

All in all, this is a very tough match from a betting perspective. Coventry are more than likely enjoying a decent run rather than having turned a major corner in terms of their future fortunes, a run that is likely to end soon. However, the evidence of the Sky cameras this season has been clear – a 2-0 Coventry win over Derby and a 7-1 humiliation for Ipswich at Peterborough. However, Paul Jewell is the perfect manager to get a response from his players and to use their previous television capitulation as motivation for a better performance tonight, and the Tractor Boys did display something of a fighting spirit in turning around the game against Leeds last time out at Portman Road.

In the end, while the gut says that Ipswich could well be value at 11/10 to record the home win, the performances have not been there for the hosts, meaning that now may not be the time to put money down on a change of fortunes. Instead, ‘both teams to score’ looks like the most solid wager for a small interest with the attacking qualities of both sides – Coventry have scored on every away trip this season – and the fragile home defence. Expect a nervy game with all three results being live and on the table.

Suggestion:

0.5pts ‘Both Teams to Score’ @ 8/11 (@ Boyle, Coral and Ladbrokes)