Norwich v Sunderland Preview

Five games played and five points each as Sunderland head to Norwich for the Monday Night Football action on Sky Sports this evening.

However, from a betting point of view, there is no obvious edge to be found even after examining the facts and stats around the matchup. Norwich were seconds away from an impressive home win against Stoke early in the season before conceding a 94^th minute equaliser, while Paul Lambert’s side were also unfortunate not to pick up at least a point at Stamford Bridge where they created a host of chances against Chelsea. A win at Bolton last time out placed more misery onto the shoulders of the troubled Wanderers, but in their last home match, the Canaries were beaten 1-0 by West Bromwich Albion thanks to an early defensive error from Ritchie De Laet. Those stats highlight that there is not a very clear read available on the hosts yet – who have also developed a peculiar habit of conceding a penalty each time they take to the field in the Premier League this season.

As for ex-Norwich City man Steve Bruce, he is beginning to face some pressure as he brings his Sunderland side south. The reasons for the pressure, however, appear to be more based around the fear of an upcoming lack of progress rather than any problems in real life – aside from the obviously troubling 1-0 home defeat to Newcastle. Sunderland fans were saddened to see Ghanaian striker Asamoah Gyan leave before the transfer window closed and the fear of stagnation is beginning to envelope some of the supporters at the Stadium of Light. The Black Cats began the season with a very credible draw away at Liverpool, before that home loss to their bitter rivals, however. A 0-0 draw away at Swansea potentially provides some insight as to how the contest this evening may turn out, which Bruce’s side followed up with variable home performances – a 2-1 loss to Chelsea and a 4-0 demolishing of a Stoke side who may still be adapting to the legwork required when playing a tough Europa League game away in Eastern Europe a few days before returning to the domestic scene.

It is not clear, then, quite what to expect tonight – it would be foolish and a lie to pretend that I had a strong feeling about how this contest will ultimately pan out. Many may point how close Aston Villa came to win at QPR yesterday as evidence that the hosts are under-priced at 6/4 – and considering the loss to West Brom and the problems at Bolton (Norwich’s sole Premiership scalp), they may be correct in doing so. However, 11/5 on the visitors is hardly a price that jumps out, given that Sunderland’s 4-goal explosion against Stoke may have had less to do with the solving of their goal scoring problems (just two goals in five matches prior to that game) and more to do with Stoke’s European exploits.

With big questions over who may win, and a feeling that the 0-0 draw which Sunderland earned at Swansea may be a good guide for this game, the over/under prices are also prohibitive. Under 2.5 goals is a best price 4/5, which is probably the correct price for the favourite outcome.

It is not often that this blog will ever recommend a complete ‘no bet’ – after all, why would anyone bother to read a betting preview if they didn’t want some advice. However, this blog focuses more on honesty than bluffing, and in that regard there are no prices tonight that I think merit an outlay. Sunderland at 6/5 on the draw no bet market does seem to be the most interesting to those really looking to get involved – and it is the one direction that I would hesitantly point to for ‘an interest’ – but this game is best watched for future reference.

Suggestion:

NO BET

QPR 1-1 Aston Villa

Finally, some stoppage time good luck, rather than bad. QPR came back in the 93rd minute to snatch a 1-1 draw against Aston Villa, as a Richard Dunne own-goal cost Villa three points at Loftus Road.

Defeat would have been harsh on Rangers however, after they dominated the first half and fell behind to an exceedingly dubious penalty early in the second. Rangers had their own penalty shout turned down later in the half, before being reduced to ten men when Traore was sent off for a second yellow card. However, just as defeat seemed certain, Villa allowed a low ball into the box which Stephen Warnock smashed into the legs of Dunne, with the rebound leaving Shay Given helpless. It was no more than the home team deserved and was a welcome relief to those who followed the advice of this blog.

Outcome: No bet - stake returned as a result of draw

Total loss for season: 0.07 points

QPR v Aston Villa Tip

Impressive in a 0-0 home draw against Newcastle United in front of the Sky cameras earlier this season, plenty of punters will be interested in having QPR on-side in their Sunday afternoon contest against Aston Villa.

Buoyed by the signings of Joey Barton, D.J. Campbell and Shaun Wright-Phillips, QPR look capable of putting up more of a fight in the top-flight than they did at the start of the season. Their 4-0 opening day home defeat to Bolton seems a lifetime ago, and should be seen as such in betting terms. Since then, Rangers have picked up a 1-0 victory at Everton, and although they were beaten 2-0 at Wigan, they then went on to dominate against Newcastle in a 0-0 draw and stun Wolves 3-0 at Molineux.  Goals from Barton, Faulin and Campbell in the west midlands highlight the number of options Rangers are developing in their attacking game – which has kicked into another gear since the arrival of Wright-Phillips.

At the back, Rangers are also an outfit to be increasingly reckoned with. The attacking threat means that the defence have less of the ball coming at them than they did early in the campaign, and Everton, Newcastle and Wolves have all failed to find the back of Paddy Kenny’s net.

That defensive record could well be extended against an increasingly flailing Aston Villa strike-force. Both Darren Bent and Emile Heskey look set to miss out at Loftus Road thanks to injury – facts that pile much of the attacking pressure onto the shoulders of Agbonlahor. The talented young striker has found the net three times already this season in the league, but there are concerns over whether Alex McLeish can get enough goals from the rest of the team. Although Villa did score three at home to Blackburn and two at Everton, they were also shutout at Fulham and at home to Wolves, and looked poor in a 2-0 home Carling Cup defeat to Bolton during the week.

However, in Shay Given, Villa have their own top class weapon between the sticks. Given was exceptional in the 1-1 home draw against Newcastle, and has the ability to almost single-handedly affect a result with his shot-stopping. Villa will not want to rely too heavily on Given of course, but they could well be in for a long afternoon if their ‘keeper is not on top form.

All the feeling about this game then seems to point to a QPR victory and under 2.5 goals. However, Villa are certainly no mugs and possess the quality in the side to make a mockery of a 12/5 price away from home at the newly promoted Rangers. At a best price 4/6 about under 2.5 goals, the bookmakers are clearly of a similar mindset in terms of the qualities of both defences, and we should be wary of taking a price that is too short by virtue of being carried away by sentiment. That fact means that the best value may lay with QPR in the ‘draw-no-bet’ market at 4/6 – a price that takes into account the possibility of Given and the Aston Villa defence making it a frustrating afternoon for the newly confident hosts.

Suggestion:

QUEENS PARK RANGERS  v Aston Villa 1pt DNB @ 4/6 (Boylesports and Coral)

Saturday Review

After a rough week, back to the world of profit this evening, albeit modest. Review below:

Aldershot 0-1 CRAWLEY TOWN : Only one goal at the Rec on the day that Aldershot found out that they would host Manchester United in the Carling Cup 4th Round. Doughty with the only goal on 64 minutes to secure the points for Steve Evans' side.

Portsmouth 1-0 BLACKPOOL (DNB) : Oh dear! Heading for the 'no bet' element of this tip when with virtually the final kick of the contest Portsmouth snatched a winner. 94th minute heartbreak after a level contest.

Wigan Athletic 1-2 SPURS : Comfortable enough for Spurs, although they perhaps should have put the home side away by more than a one goal margain. Early goals from Bale and Van der Vaart enough to grab three points.

Wigan Athletic 1-2 SPURS : Over 2.5 goals secured here as well when Diame pulled one back for Wigan on 50 minutes.

Summary of Bets:

Three Winners: Spurs win 1pt @ 5/6

                        Wigan v Spurs Over 2.5 goals 1pt @ 10/11

                        Crawley win 1pt @ 7/5

One loser: Blackpool DNB 1pt @ 23/17

Profit for day = 2.14 points

Total running loss for season = 0.07 points

Saturday Selections

Four bets for this Saturday afternoon then as I look to recover from the frustrating Brighton v Leeds contest from last night.

Aldershot v CRAWLEY TOWN (1pt win @ 7/5)

Portsmouth v BLACKPOOL (DNB) (1pt @ 23/17)

Wigan Athletic v SPURS (1pt win @ 5/6)

Wigan Athletic v Spurs Over 2.5 goals (1pt @ 10/11)

Check back later for a review, and feel free to add comments to disagree!

Aldershot v Crawley Tip

Aldershot head into their game with Crawley this afternoon in a rich run of form, but they may well come back to Earth with a bump when they face the rich men of League Two.

The ‘shots made it through to the fourth round of the Carling Cup for the first time in their history when they defeated Rochdale 2-1at home in midweek, with ex-Rushden and Diamonds man Michael Rankine amongst the goals. That victory has made it six wins from eight for Aldershot in all competitions, a run that includes two draws. The hosts have not lost since a 2-0 defeat at Morecambe over a month ago, a defeat that followed consecutive home reverses against Torquay and Northampton (both 1-0).

Defeat at home was avoided against the other newly promoted side, AFC Wimbledon, only thanks to a 95^th minute leveller however, and the 2-0 win at strugglers Hereford has been Aldershot’s only win by more than the odd goal. That, of course, will not worry manager Dean Holdsworth too much if his side keep winning, but Crawley could be their stiffest league test of the season.

As for Steve Evans’ Sussex side, adapting to life in League Two has been slightly more bumpy than many expected. After three wins from four to kick start their campaign (including conceding a 90^th minute leveller at Port Vale on the opening day), Crawley hit the rocks with a 3-1 defeat at Cheltenham. Since then, they defeated Bristol Rovers 4-1 at home, before being demolished 6-0 at Morecambe. A 3-0 home defeat against Swindon did little to restore confidence, but a much better second half display saw Crawley overturn a 1-0 home deficit against Bradford last Saturday, en route to a 3-1 win. Doubters will point to the fact that Crawley have lost four in a row on the road, and only won one of six encounters away from home this season (a solid enough 3-1 win at Torquay), but those facts do include defeats at Crystal Palace (Carling Cup) and Southend (JPT) to bolster their appearance.

With Steve Evans beginning to make changes during the week – John Dempster being loaned out to K*ttering - the Crawley players will be well aware that there can be no passengers if they want to stay with the club, and ultimately their recent run should turn out to be a minor blip in form. That makes the 7/5 available on a win this afternoon very appealing and a price that should not be turned down.

Suggestion:

Crawley WIN 1pt @ 7/5 (Stan James and Ladbrokes)