Tuesday Selections

Due the fact that I am moving house this week, there has been not a great deal of time for the reasoning behind these selections - but here are the Tuesday night Carling Cup suggestions.

Accrington Stanley v SCUNTHORPE @ 7/5 @ VC, Sportingbet, Coral, 32Red

Scunthorpe have an awful record in the League Cup, losing 22 of 24 away ties and finishing with elimination in the first round in 12 of the last 18 seasons. However, Scunthorpe played very well by all accounts against Wycombe on Saturday en route to a 1-1 draw, while Accrington were held at home against Aldershot. With similar lineups expected to take to the field for both sides tonight, Scunthorpe are a touch of value at 7/5 to outshine their League 2 opponents.

Derby County v SHREWSBURY @ 5/1 @ Stan James

Another two teams that have a record in this competition that hardly inspires, but Shrewsbury can add to Derby's failures against League 2 opposition with an upset at Pride Park. Shrewsbury were denied victory over Plymouth by a 90th minute goal on Saturday, but at 5/1 they represent value in this encounter.

Stevenage v PETERBOROUGH @ 6/4 @ various

Stevenage held Exeter at the Lamex Stadium (Broadhall Way) on Saturday, but they should be outclassed by Peterborough even if Darren Ferguson chooses to rotate some of his squad. Posh's attacking style should see them through without too much fuss against Graham Westley's physical side.

HULL CITY -1 v Macclesfield @ 5/7 @ Bodog

The only trustwothy short-priced handicap bet of the night should be Hull against Macclefield of League 2. Hull were undeservedly booed after an excellent display by Blackpool in their 1-0 win on Friday night, and will be desperate to get back into a winning mode tonight in front of their own fans. Macclesfield have lost 11 of 12 twelve away matches in this competition, and while Hull are without six players on international duty, Macclesfield's won injury problems temper the possible affect of squad changes.

AFC Diamonds Play First Match

On an aside to the betting, I was lucky enough to watch a very mini piece of football history today as AFC RUSHDEN AND DIAMONDS took to the field for the first time against Raunds Town reserves at Kiln Park in Raunds – the ground that both teams will share this season.
The tale of the quick demise of Rushden from the Conference has been well told elsewhere on the internet, not to mention the added salt in the wounds situation of bitter rivals Kettering Town taking up residence at the Diamonds Nene Park home. However, today was not about bitterness or sadness, it was about the joy of watching the brand new phoenix club take to the field for the first time.

The 3-0 scoreline favoured Raunds at the end, but it was almost incidental to the day as the dedicated hard work of a few supporters resulted in the presence of a Diamonds team once again kicking a ball in anger – or at least with the desire to score. Rushden will field only an U18’s team this season, with a view to a senior team entering the United Counties League next season, but the more than 200 fans in attendance on this Saturday were just proud to have a club to support once more.

Diamonds host an open fans meeting at Raunds on Tuesday evening, with their next friendly against Thrapston Town, at Wellingborough Whitworths, this Thursday. I’m sure news of these events will reach this blog!


Official afcdiamonds website

Rushden and Diamonds Fans Forum

Saturday Review

The first Saturday of the season was certainly something of a thriller, with a host of interesting storylines and new information to put in the notebook. In particular:

·         NOTTINGHAM FOREST are clearly still a work in progress as many people predicted after their 0-0 draw at home to Barnsley.

·         All the Championship new boys – BRIGHTON, SOUTHAMPTON and PETERBOROUGH – were victorious, but some of the football played by the Saints was sublime, and they will be a team that can claim many scalps, especially at home.

·         The game at Ashton Gate may reveal a lot about the prospects for both Ipswich and Bristol City, or at least one of them. Michael Chopra could prove to be a fantastic signing for the Tractor Boys and he could have made no better start today for Paul Jewell.

Obviously, drawing conclusions from one game would be quite the opposite of sensible, but still, football is back and that is something that provides genuine topics for conversation that don’t necessarily revolve around the theoretical.

SUMMARY OF BETS:

One win – Brentford 2-0 Yeovil

One no bet – Stevenage 0-0 Exeter

Three losses – Walsall 1-0 Leyton Orient
                         
                          Shrewsbury 1-1 Plymouth (90^th minute heartbreak!)

                          Preston 2-4 Colchester

TOTAL LOSS: 2.17pts based on 1pt level stakes across all matches as suggested

Saturday Selections

The first weekend of the new football league season is an absolute minefield – even more so than the betting on some well researched friendlies and Europa League ties that have been the fodder for many during the last weeks. Nearly all of the sides are unknown quantities to at least some degree and gaining a reliable edge over the oddsmakers at this stage is a tough proposition.

However, this being a betting blog it would be a pretty poor effort not to have a go, and in that spirit there are a few teams whose ante-post value could also point towards some early season profit. Even so, stakes probably ought to be small at this time of year while the sun is still shining and no-one is worried whether the game at Macclesfield will it make it past the pitch inspection.

Links to previews are able for three of the five selections below. The reasoning for the remaining two:

Exeter and Leyton Orient both have excellent draw no bet claims, as they travel away to teams who are expected to be at the bottom end of League One. For all of the good feeling around Stevenage, their promotion to League One came in spite of a poor home record verses the top sides in League 2 last season. Further, their opening match in the Football League a season ago – with all of its hype and expectation – saw them have to come from behind to scrape a 2-2 draw with lowly Macclesfield. A feel good factor will not be enough to push Stevenage over the line against Exeter City.

Leyton Orient, meanwhile, look very much like a dark horse playoff contender on paper with excellent manager Russell Slade at the helm and a selection of summer signings that include Jamie Cureton and Marc Laird. After only just missing out on the playoffs, Orient are value to steal an opening day win against a Walsall side who look destined for a finish at the lower end of the league (even if they should improve on their relegation form of a year ago).

SUGGESTIONS:

BRENTFORD v Yeovil – 1pt @ 5/6 @ Blue Square, 888 Sport and Coral

PRESTON NORTH END v Colchester – 1pt @ 5/6 @ Bet365

DRAW NO BET – Stevenage v EXETER – 1pt @ 6/4 @ Bet365 and William Hill

DRAW NO BET – Walsall v LEYTON ORIENT – 1pt @ Evs @ Paddy Power, Skybet and Unibet

SHREWSBURY v Plymouth – 1pt @ 10/11 @ various (11/12 @ 32Red)

Results will be posted by close of Saturday - all comments welcome!

Shrewsbury Town v Plymouth Argyle

The case has been made to me, rather convincingly, that if Plymouth Argyle were in the Football Conference, they would not be allowed to start the season. However, despite their frankly awful financial predicament, the fans of the Pilgrims will be able to take their minds away from off the field issues for at least 90 minutes tomorrow as they head to Greenhous Meadow to take on Graham Turner’s Shrewsbury.

Shrewsbury fans have some reason to feel bitter at still being in League 2 after coming so close to automatic promotion in 10/11, but Graham Turner has managed to hold onto a very competitive squad for the new season. Marvin Morgan has come in from Aldershot to boost the depth of the frontline, and with the bulk of the squad maintained Shrewsbury will once again be aiming to be there or thereabouts. One concern is that Joe Jacobson, impressive in pre-season, will be missing thanks to a suspension.

For Plymouth, the farce of creditors and players not being paid is becoming almost old hat now, but veteran manager Peter Reid has done a tremendous job to keep a squad together that still possesses the ability to create some problems for their opponents. Warren Feeney adds more of a goal scoring potential to the squad as well as key experience for what will be a young starting eleven overall, but on the road against a team as talented and secure as Shrewsbury, Plymouth can expect a difficult start to the season.

 

SUGGESTION:

SHREWSBURY – 1pt @ 10/11 @ various (11/12 @ 32Red)

Preston North End v Colchester United

For a team with a former Premiership manager who has been outspoken and oddly bronzed during his career, Preston have hardly been attracting the publicity that other northern sides have been getting used to in League One. However, while the likes of Huddersfield, Sheffield Wednesday and Sheffield United may enjoy the focus of most of the attention at the moment, Preston may be the most trustworthy side in the division this season.
 

Phil Brown made great strides with North End prior to their relegation from the Championship a year ago and actually saw his side relegated with some decent form. The ‘Brown Bounce’ was more than the improvement in results that many relegated sides enjoy once the pressure is off, Preston played genuinely better football to end their stay in the Championship and Brown has considerable pedigree in the Football League - even if some have doubted his ability at the highest level.

 

North End’s main strength in 11/12 comes from the goal scoring ability provided by Iain Hume and Neil Mellor. Colchester meanwhile look weak in exactly this department heading into the new campaign and the difficulty of the task has not been played down by John Ward in the media this week. At just a shade of odds on, the hosts look value to kick off what could turn into a very successful campaign with a win – although one should be remember from Norwich that taking a spanking from Colchester on the opening day of the season is not always a bad thing.

SUGGESTION:

PRESTON NORTH END – 1pt @ 5/6 @ Bet365