Update - Packers 10-3 Bears

Not quite as comfortable as one would have hoped, but the Packers secured their playoff slot via a stout defensive win over the Bears.

Now 3/9 (33%) on the week.

Green Bay should wrap up playoff spot

THE Green Bay Packers put themselves in pole position for a playoff spot when they beat the New York Giants last week, and they look like good things to confirm their place with a win over the Bears tonight.

The Packers got their offence back into high gear last weekend with the return of Aaron Rodgers under center, and Rodgers will not let his side miss out on their chance to make a real playoff charge. While ordinarily the Bears would never lack motivation for a trip to Green Bay, Chicago may also not be willing to risk potential injuries depending on how the game develops. Regardless of week seventeen action, the Bears have already secured a first-round bye when the playoffs begin. However, the Bears 36-7 loss at home to New England showed the potential fragility in their defence, and while the Packers may not rack up a win in such comfortable fashion, they have enough offensive firepower to continue an impressive run at Lambeau Field.

1/5 is a very short price about Green Bay, but they are the only team I trust this week in the mine-field of week seventeen football. Money is generally best preserved for the start of the playoffs next week, but Green Bay are just about value in this matchup – as unexciting at that this.

SUGGESTION:

Green Bay WIN (1/5 @ Stan James and bwin)

Update - Saturday Results

Preston 1-2 Derby

Manchester City 1-0 Blackpool

West Brom 1-2 Manchester United

Coventry 1-1 Ipswich

Grimsby 7 (SEVEN!) -2 Mansfield

Stoke 2-0 Everton

Another poor afternoon, as only Derby delivered with a 2-1 win at struggling Preston. Both Manchester teams managed one-goal victories, United helped by a West Brom penalty miss, but neither did enough to convince me to trust them at those prices again in similiar games.

Coventry only managed a home draw with Ipswich, while Everton succombed 2-0 at Stoke after being denied an early penalty.

However, the standout selection was my pick of Mansfield, who promptly got stuffed 7-2! Seems to have summed up the week so far!

Overall, 2/8 (25%) on the blog so far this week.

Saturday Selections

West Brom v Manchester United - No Bet

Manchester City v Blackpool - No Bet

Stoke v EVERTON (DNB)

COVENTRY v Ipswich

Preston v DERBY DNB

Grimsby v MANSFIELD DNB

Plenty of trust in away teams of the draw-no-bet variety as Everton head to Stoke wrongly priced as outsiders of two. Mansfield can defeat a rusty Grimsby side who haven't played in the league for a month, while Derby can heap more misery on Preston in spite of their own dreadful form.

Coventry are the only team selected to win outright, as they should continue to beat the poor sides in the Championship at home as a surprisingly big price.

Meanwhile, short-priced favourites in Manchester are best avoided given the struggles of United away from home and City's all to easily forgotten inconsistency.

Mansfield to make use of Grimsby rust

MANSFIELD Town put a beating on Cambridge United in their last match, and they represent good value to walk away from Grimsby with a win on Saturday.

Playing only their second game since November at the Abbey Stadium during the week, Mansfield hit five goals to take all three points back up north with them. That 5-1 win followed up a 5-0 win in the FA Trophy away at Worksop, and the Stags climb to become playoff challengers may show that they have finally adapted to life outside of the football league. Despite having on-going issues with their ground, which now appear to have been finally resolved, Mansfield lay in 6^th place in the Conference table.

Mansfield’s away form during the season has not, however, been all that fantastic. Despite a recent win at Kettering and a creditable draw at Wrexham, the Stags have suffered away defeats at Fleetwood, Newport, Luton, Rushden and Forest Green – however, only the latter two sides are not in the playoff places, and Rushden were playoff finalists last season.

As for Grimsby, their indifferent run of form has made it something of a bumpy journey down into non-league football. Their last home match was a 1-1 draw against Barrow, and a 3-0 win at Hayes and Yeading represents the side’s only success in their last seven league games. It has been a run with a host of draws – against Forest Green, Southport, Eastbourne and Cambridge – while Grimsby also lost to Kidderminster 3-2 away from home.

Of more of a concern for the home fans, however, should be that fact that Grimsby have not played a league game since November 20^th. Anyone who saw Liverpool in midweek must be acutely aware of the rust that may potentially affect the players – and Mansfield’s midweek success at Cambridge will have blown away any potential cobwebs for the visitors.

Neither side has any major injury concerns heading into the match, but Mansfield’s fresh legs, coupled with their good form and Grimsby’s own indifferent performances of late in the league, makes the 13/8 about Mansfield draw-no-net look too big.

SUGGESTION;

Mansfield DNB (13/8 @ Skybet)

Derby to take advantage of Preston

DERBY County fans must still be reeling after their 5-2 hammering at the City Ground during the week against fierce rivals Nottingham Forest, but their run of five straight defeats should end against Preston on Saturday.

Derby head to Deepdale in the midst of a shocking run of form, with four straight away defeats to add to their overall run of five straight league defeats. After a strong start to the season, Nigel Clough knows that he needs to quickly steady to ship to keep alive any promotion hopes for his side. The 5-2 thrashing at Nottm Forest came after losses to Reading and Norwich at home, as well as Bristol City and Burnley away. However, the Rams have won at Ipswich, Doncaster and Leeds this season, as well as taking draws away from Barnsley and Swansea. Hardly superb form for Derby it must be said, but with the return of (loathsome) captain Robbie Savage, the Rams have the quality to take advantage of struggling Preston.

North End sacked manager Darren Ferguson during the week, but as if the turmoil of losing a manager wouldn’t be enough for the side to deal with ahead of this match, Preston have lost five potential starters for this contest. Michael Tounge and Danny Pugh have both ended their loan spells and returned to Stoke, while Josh King and Ritchie de Laet have returned to Manchester United. Leon Cort has also finished up his loan spell with the team bottom of the table. Preston were struggling even before the upheaval and the loss of players, having been defeated 3-1 by Middlesbrough at home last week. That result did end a decent run of form for the hosts, beating Ipswich and earning draws against Millwall and Cardiff, but the Ipswich victory was their only success since late October.

The only ‘positive’ for Preston is that the 21-points they have dropped from winning positions is the highest in the league – showing their ability to get ahead in games, but given the turmoil around the club at the moment, Derby have every chance to get into, and keep hold of, their own winning position. It is Derby’s own away form that is also a concern, and that makes the 10/11 about Derby draw-no-bet more appealing than the straight 7/4 about an away win.

SUGGESTION:

Derby DNB (10/11 @ various)