AT some point, the advice on this blog against backing certain short-priced favourites may, perhaps, turn into advice to lay those favourites. However, anyone put off backing Celtic at 1/4 last night by my suggestion of no bet will have been pleased to see a 1-1 draw at Celtic Park.
Visiting Kilmarnock did, in fact, take a second half lead in the contest, when Sammon gave the them a 53rd minute advantage. Rogne did equalise for Neil Lennon's side with 6 minutes remaining, but that will hardly have appeased anyone who took the 1/4 about a home win. Celtic remain second in the SPL, with Rangers two points above their rivals.
Stan James
Wednesday, 22 December 2010
Tuesday, 21 December 2010
Celtic form does not justify price
THERE has been a real lack of football betting opportunities over the last few days, but that fact should not see money thrown in hope at Celtic to beat Kilmarnock in the SPL on Tuesday night.
Assuming that the game at Celtic Park goes ahead, Neil Lennon will be hoping to see his squad move back to the top of the league on goal difference after a very indifferent run of form. Since Celtic beat Aberdeen 9-0 at home at the start of November, Celtic have managed only one win – a 1-0 victory away at St. Mirren, that itself required a 92nd minute winner. Celtic suffered a 2-0 loss at Hearts, and perhaps of more concern for those interested in a bet on tonight’s match, there have been two home draws against Dundee United and Inverness Caledonian Thistle. Celtic lead in both of those contests, but allowed their opponents to fight back for a draw on their own patch – a lack of clinical ability that must be a concern to fans of the hoops.
Kilmarnock, meanwhile, come to Celtic Park on an excellent run of form and without any injury concerns. Since a defeat at home to Inverness in late October, Kilmarnock have lost only once in the league – that loss being a dramatic 3-2 defeat at home to Rangers. Killy’s superb form has seen them pick up wins at Hearts (3-0), St Johnstone (3-0), at home to Hamilton (3-0), Aberdeen (2-1) and Hibernian (2-1). In fact, Kilmarnock have not failed to score in a league match since a 1-0 home loss to Motherwell back in August, and their firepower has the ability to cause Celtic serious problems if Neil Lennon does not have his squad back to their best.
Celtic will also be without Sean Maloney for tonight’s game, although they should welcome back some of the players that were absent last time out, and both members of their key attacking combination of Samaras and Hooper look set to pull through injury concerns.
Still, with Celtic’s recent inability to put teams to the sword in mind, and Kilmarnock’s excellent run of form where they have shown a clear ability to score goals, it would be madness to trust Celtic at a best price of 1/4. The 14/1 available about Kilmarnock is itself so insulting as to nearly tempt one into the market, while the draw also looks big at a best price of 11/2. However, with Celtic knowing that many more dropped points, especially at home, will give Rangers a real opportunity to pull away, Neil Lennon will surely have his side ready to go out firing tonight – yet faith in this fact does not entail that any money should be put down.
Suggestion:
NO BET
Update - Bears 40-14 Vikings
THE Bears were a short price, but they justified that price on Monday night with a rout of the Vikings in Minnesota. The Bears fell behind early as Brett Favre made an unexpected start for the home side, his status changing from 'out' to 'questionable' to 'starting' just hours before the game. However, the legitimacy of Favre's move was soon forgotten when the veteran quarterback was knocked out of the game after being sacked.
With Joe Webb in at quarterback as expected, the Vikings struggled to keep the ball out of the hands of the Bears defence, who totalled five turnovers in the game. Devon Hester was the offensive star for the Bears, taking a punt return back for a touchdown and also scoring on a pass from Jay Cutler.
Overall then, the scoreline was the ultimate justification of the short-priced tip of the Bears, who clinch the NFC North division with the win.
1/1 (100%) on tips this week.
With Joe Webb in at quarterback as expected, the Vikings struggled to keep the ball out of the hands of the Bears defence, who totalled five turnovers in the game. Devon Hester was the offensive star for the Bears, taking a punt return back for a touchdown and also scoring on a pass from Jay Cutler.
Overall then, the scoreline was the ultimate justification of the short-priced tip of the Bears, who clinch the NFC North division with the win.
1/1 (100%) on tips this week.
Monday, 20 December 2010
End of Week Data
THIS blog will never shy away from transparency - be that good or bad for its reputation. In that spirit, here is the total data for the first week of publication.
WINS:
WINS:
Hartlepool @ 20/23 (won 4-2)
Doncaster @ 13/10 (won 2-1)
Stuttgart @ 2/5 (won 5-1)
Sunderland @ 23/20 (won 1-0)
Troy @ 5/6 (won 48-21)
LOSSES:
Sparta Prague v CSKA Moscow OVER 2.5 @ 20/21 (1-1 draw)
Blackburn @ 5/6 (drew 1-1)
England DNB @ 5/6 (lost 267 runs)
The Bears tip against the Vikings remains unsettled at the time of writing. Further, specific advice was given not to back Liverpool v FC Utrecht (drew 0-0) and the Steelers v Jets (lost 22-17). These were not 'tips' in a clear sense, and lays of the teams were not advised, so do not count as wins. However, they are worth mentioning as short-odds avoidance tips that ended up losing.
TOTAL RESULT -
A £5 bet on each selection during the week would have returned an overall profit of £7.77.
This is a 19.4% increase on the bank during the week.
(£40 staked, £47.77 returned)
(£40 staked, £47.77 returned)
Bears too good for Vikings
AFTER the self-congratulation that accompanied my avoidance of the Steelers and Patriots at their respective prices last night, the question of hypocrisy could certainly be raised if the Bears were tipped to win in Minnesota tonight.
Chicago is best priced 3/10 as they head to play the first outdoor game in Minnesota for more than 20 years, as the Vikings Metrodome home still not fit for play after a roof collapse due to snowfall over a week ago. However, the Vikings are in such a sorry state that 3/10 is a price that is not best left on the table. Minnesota were soundly beaten last week by the Giants in their first game without Brett Favre under center, and they are down to their third-string quarterback this Monday night as Favre’s replacement, Tavaris Jackson, has been placed on IR after suffering from turf-toe. That means that Joe Webb, a former 6th round pick, will get the start against a Bears defence that managed to hold the combination of Adrian Peterson and Brett Favre in relative check in a win at Soldier Field back in week 14. Webb's start for the Vikings coincides with the team’s first game of the year after their elimination from playoff contention was confirmed, and while interim Head Coach Lesley Frazier has a lot resting on the game as he looks to convince fans and management that he deserves the job on a permanent basis, the season cannot end quickly enough for the majority of this Vikings squad.
Further, there are not many teams better suited to adapt to the bitterly cold conditions predicted on Monday night. Although the Bears were blown out in the snow at home last weekend by New England, that loss may say more about the Patriots than the Bears. Certainly, Chicago has not earned a place amongst the best teams in the league just yet, but they are a team that knows how to win in cold weather - they are 10-0 in their last ten games against dome/warm weather teams in freezing conditions. The Bears can also wrap up the NFC North with a win after Green Bay lost in New England on Sunday night, and the squad has been making all the right noises about "getting back up after being knocked out" in the Patriots game last Sunday. The Bears fell apart both offensively and defensively in that game, but prior to that Jay Cutler was looking in control of the Bears offensive unit. In wins over Detroit and Philadelphia in the previous two weeks, Cutler had managed five touchdowns and no interceptions. Against a Vikings defence that came close to handing it in last week against the Giants, it looks likely that Cutler will get back in the groove. Cutler also passed for 237 yards and three touchdowns in the Bears win over the Vikings earlier in the year.
All in all, taking 3/10 about a team on the road in a divisional game may seem to go against the reasoning I employed last night which allowed the avoidance of taking a loss on the Steelers/Jets game. However, even with that in mind, the Bears are too tempting to reject against a Vikings team heading one way and starting a third-string quarterback. Expect the Bears to have punched their playoff ticket with an NFC North title come Tuesday morning.
SUGGESTION -
Bears WIN (3/10 @ Coral)
Chicago is best priced 3/10 as they head to play the first outdoor game in Minnesota for more than 20 years, as the Vikings Metrodome home still not fit for play after a roof collapse due to snowfall over a week ago. However, the Vikings are in such a sorry state that 3/10 is a price that is not best left on the table. Minnesota were soundly beaten last week by the Giants in their first game without Brett Favre under center, and they are down to their third-string quarterback this Monday night as Favre’s replacement, Tavaris Jackson, has been placed on IR after suffering from turf-toe. That means that Joe Webb, a former 6th round pick, will get the start against a Bears defence that managed to hold the combination of Adrian Peterson and Brett Favre in relative check in a win at Soldier Field back in week 14. Webb's start for the Vikings coincides with the team’s first game of the year after their elimination from playoff contention was confirmed, and while interim Head Coach Lesley Frazier has a lot resting on the game as he looks to convince fans and management that he deserves the job on a permanent basis, the season cannot end quickly enough for the majority of this Vikings squad.
Further, there are not many teams better suited to adapt to the bitterly cold conditions predicted on Monday night. Although the Bears were blown out in the snow at home last weekend by New England, that loss may say more about the Patriots than the Bears. Certainly, Chicago has not earned a place amongst the best teams in the league just yet, but they are a team that knows how to win in cold weather - they are 10-0 in their last ten games against dome/warm weather teams in freezing conditions. The Bears can also wrap up the NFC North with a win after Green Bay lost in New England on Sunday night, and the squad has been making all the right noises about "getting back up after being knocked out" in the Patriots game last Sunday. The Bears fell apart both offensively and defensively in that game, but prior to that Jay Cutler was looking in control of the Bears offensive unit. In wins over Detroit and Philadelphia in the previous two weeks, Cutler had managed five touchdowns and no interceptions. Against a Vikings defence that came close to handing it in last week against the Giants, it looks likely that Cutler will get back in the groove. Cutler also passed for 237 yards and three touchdowns in the Bears win over the Vikings earlier in the year.
All in all, taking 3/10 about a team on the road in a divisional game may seem to go against the reasoning I employed last night which allowed the avoidance of taking a loss on the Steelers/Jets game. However, even with that in mind, the Bears are too tempting to reject against a Vikings team heading one way and starting a third-string quarterback. Expect the Bears to have punched their playoff ticket with an NFC North title come Tuesday morning.
SUGGESTION -
Bears WIN (3/10 @ Coral)
Update - Steelers 17-22 Jets
JUST when it seems also too obvious, that is when to take a step back. Never has that moral been more true than in Pittsburgh on Sunday night, where the New York Jets took a giant leap forward in their attempt to turn their season around.
The Jets held off a late drive from Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers to secure a five-point win, which made the suggestion that the Steelers were too short at 1/2 all the wiser. I may have been wrong about Pittsburgh gaining the win, but that fact had no impact on the pocket, importantly.
Elsewhere, New England needed a late drive from Tom Brady to beat Green Bay 31-27, again making a mockery of pre-match price of 2/17. If you haven't learned the lesson of this years NFL yet - avoid the short odds - it may well be too late.
The Jets held off a late drive from Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers to secure a five-point win, which made the suggestion that the Steelers were too short at 1/2 all the wiser. I may have been wrong about Pittsburgh gaining the win, but that fact had no impact on the pocket, importantly.
Elsewhere, New England needed a late drive from Tom Brady to beat Green Bay 31-27, again making a mockery of pre-match price of 2/17. If you haven't learned the lesson of this years NFL yet - avoid the short odds - it may well be too late.
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