IT was slightly more comfortable, in the end, than even those of us who backed Green Bay would have predicted, but the Packers put themselves in a good position for a playoff place with this dominant victory over the New York Giants.
Green Bay gained more than 500 yards in the game, with Aaron Rogers throwing for three touchdowns on his return from injury. Defensively, as was predicted, the Packers put real pressure on Eli Manning as he tried to lead the Giants back from a deficit, forcing 4 interceptions and 6 turnovers in total.
The 28-point maragin of victory more than justified the decision to back the Packers at 11/17.
With the win, I'm now 6/7 (86%) on the blog this week. A full weekly recap will be available on Tuesday.
SUGGESTION:
I earlier recommended to back the Packers at 37/1 to win the Superbowl on Betfair, as excellent trading material. I am now happy to suggest trading out, with the Packers available to lay at 19/1. (I personally made what ultimately was a mistake and traded out at 26/1 as the game was being played). This tip, although succesful, will not count in my weekly run down, as any profit may be deferred and left as a 'free bet' on the Packers to win the Superbowl, depending on particular personal tendencies in the market.
Stan James
Monday, 27 December 2010
Sunday, 26 December 2010
Update - Boxing Day Results
QPR 4-0 Swansea
Manchester United 2-0 Sunderland
Wolves 1-2 Wigan
Fulham 1-3 West Ham (No Bet - Fulham at evs)
Two out of three on the afternoon and enough to turn a profit. Things started well as Fulham, who were selected as being too short at Evs, suffered a 3-1 home defeat to West Ham. The Cottagers went ahead early, but a battling West Ham came back to win with some comfort.
In the 1pm kick-off, QPR blitzed Swansea 4-0 to more than justify their selection at 6/5. Manchester United also covered their 1 goal handicap with a 2-0 win, but the scoreline perhaps flattered Sunderland, as United could easily have been 4-0 up within 20 minutes.
The clear failures of the day were Wolves, who slip to the bottom of the Premier League after a 2-1 defeat at home to Wigan. With Wigan sitting back on a 2-0 lead, Wolves dominated the second period, but lacked any real quality to take advantage of their possession. In fact, at times, Wolves' desperation caused elementary mistakes, and the boos from the home fans at full time were more than justified. Unless there is a dramatic improvement, Wolves will do well to finish 19th in the table, let alone survive for another campaign in the top flight.
Overall, 5/6 on the blog this week (83%) with the Green Bay Packers still to play this evening. A full weekly rundown will be available on Tuesday.
Manchester United 2-0 Sunderland
Wolves 1-2 Wigan
Fulham 1-3 West Ham (No Bet - Fulham at evs)
Two out of three on the afternoon and enough to turn a profit. Things started well as Fulham, who were selected as being too short at Evs, suffered a 3-1 home defeat to West Ham. The Cottagers went ahead early, but a battling West Ham came back to win with some comfort.
In the 1pm kick-off, QPR blitzed Swansea 4-0 to more than justify their selection at 6/5. Manchester United also covered their 1 goal handicap with a 2-0 win, but the scoreline perhaps flattered Sunderland, as United could easily have been 4-0 up within 20 minutes.
The clear failures of the day were Wolves, who slip to the bottom of the Premier League after a 2-1 defeat at home to Wigan. With Wigan sitting back on a 2-0 lead, Wolves dominated the second period, but lacked any real quality to take advantage of their possession. In fact, at times, Wolves' desperation caused elementary mistakes, and the boos from the home fans at full time were more than justified. Unless there is a dramatic improvement, Wolves will do well to finish 19th in the table, let alone survive for another campaign in the top flight.
Overall, 5/6 on the blog this week (83%) with the Green Bay Packers still to play this evening. A full weekly rundown will be available on Tuesday.
Green Bay have talent for crucial win
A summary of Boxing Day English football picks is available HERE.
WITH just over 7 minutes to play in last Sunday’s game against the Philadelphia Eagles, the New York Giants were thinking about a division title. By the end of this Sunday’s game, the Giants may be facing up to the prospect of not making the playoffs at all.
New York’s implosion last week against the Eagles at home will live long in the memory of anyone who witnessed it, as the Giants blew a 21-point lead to lose 38-31 on a late DeSean Jackson punt return touchdown. That loss leaves the Giants at 9-5, just a game ahead of their opponents at Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon, and a loss against the Packers would take the Giants playoff destiny out of their own hands with just one week of the regular season remaining.
However, anyone who believes that the Giants will lose this game as a result of a hangover from last week is quite wrong. The Giants are a veteran team, with a veteran coach, and having won a Superbowl they will know that all is not lost. Tom Coughlin, Brandon Jacobs and Eli Manning have all faced up to the media this week, and there is no question over the Giants resiliency and stomach for the fight. The problem for the Giants on Sunday will not be their mental state, it will be the team facing them from across the field.
The Packers will welcome back Aaron Rodgers on Sunday after he missed last weekend’s battling loss at New England, and was forced to leave the game against Detroit the week previous – a game that the Packers lost 7-3. However, while their two game losing streak has put Green Bay on the edge of oblivion, this is a team with too much talent to be counted out – especially with the return of Rodgers. All six of the Packers losses have been by less than five points, while Lambeau Field has remained a fortress with Green Bay winning nine of their last ten home games.
At 4-2, the Giants are no mugs on the road, but wins over Dallas, Houston, Minnesota and Seattle hardly compare to this game (defeats have been @ Indianapolis way back in week two, and then in Philadelphia). The Giants rushing attack is the key to their success, they average nearly 145 yards a game, which is good enough for 5th best in the league, and it could be the deciding factor or Sunday. The Packers pass defence is the third best in the league, and Eli Manning has thrown a league leading 20 interceptions. If the Packers can force the Giants away from the ground game and make them play from behind, it could be a touch day for New York.
With the season pretty much on the line for both of these teams, this is a virtual playoff game. With that in mind, the Packers should be trusted to make the most use of their home field advantage for a crucial win. The return of Aaron Rodgers is key for a Green Bay team that has played far above its 8-6 record, and while there will be no mental hangover from last week for the Giants, they may ultimately look back upon this week and last week as the time period where it all went wrong. Take the Packers to put a dent in New York’s playoff aspirations.
SUGGESTION:
Green Bay WIN (11/17 @ bwin)
Green Bay should also be backed for a small stake to win the Superbowl at impressive value. Clearly, defeat today would end their hopes, but the Packers talent could carry them deep into the playoffs, especially if results over the next two weeks vault them into the 5th seed in the NFC and provide a road game against the winners of the NFC West in the first round of the playoffs. They are good trading material.
SUGGESTION (2):
Green Bay SUPERBOWL WINNERS (37/1 @ Betfair)
Friday, 24 December 2010
Boxing Day Selections
WOLVES v Wigan
QPR v Swansea
MANCHESTER UNITED -1 v Sunderland
Three more home selections for the Boxing Day schedule, as Manchester United and QPR should both be able to secure their positions at the top of their respective leagues. United, in particular, could be in for a free scoring afternoon against an injury hit Sunderland squad.
Meanwhile, Wolves recent run of good home form can be expected to continue against a Wigan team who have justified their reputation as one of the favourites for the drop.
More detail is able via each of the links above, and comments are welcome below.
Elsewhere, here are my points to note. These are not classified as tips.
FULHAM are too short at evens to be backed to beat West Ham at home in the first game of the day. The same shortness of price is enough to keep well away from EVERTON at home to Birmingham, as the Toffees inability to score should see them avoided. Recall that a good result for Everton at Chelsea was followed up with a 0-0 home draw against Wigan before getting too carried away by the recent success at Manchester City.
CRAWLEY are also too short at 4/6 to win at Eastbourne in the Conference, after flattering to deceive in recent away games, including a 1-1 draw at Barrow. Eastborune were beaten 4-2 at home by championship-chasing Luton earlier in the season, but they gave the Hatters all they could handle that afternoon, coming back from 2-0 down to level the match at 2-2. Home form has been key to Eastbourne's continued success in the conference, and following the visitors at such a short price highlights a strategy that will not provide success in the long run.
QPR v Swansea
MANCHESTER UNITED -1 v Sunderland
Three more home selections for the Boxing Day schedule, as Manchester United and QPR should both be able to secure their positions at the top of their respective leagues. United, in particular, could be in for a free scoring afternoon against an injury hit Sunderland squad.
Meanwhile, Wolves recent run of good home form can be expected to continue against a Wigan team who have justified their reputation as one of the favourites for the drop.
More detail is able via each of the links above, and comments are welcome below.
Elsewhere, here are my points to note. These are not classified as tips.
FULHAM are too short at evens to be backed to beat West Ham at home in the first game of the day. The same shortness of price is enough to keep well away from EVERTON at home to Birmingham, as the Toffees inability to score should see them avoided. Recall that a good result for Everton at Chelsea was followed up with a 0-0 home draw against Wigan before getting too carried away by the recent success at Manchester City.
CRAWLEY are also too short at 4/6 to win at Eastbourne in the Conference, after flattering to deceive in recent away games, including a 1-1 draw at Barrow. Eastborune were beaten 4-2 at home by championship-chasing Luton earlier in the season, but they gave the Hatters all they could handle that afternoon, coming back from 2-0 down to level the match at 2-2. Home form has been key to Eastbourne's continued success in the conference, and following the visitors at such a short price highlights a strategy that will not provide success in the long run.
United should enjoy Boxing Day success
SUNDERLAND have been having a tremendous season in the Premier League this year, but they may not enjoy much festive cheer at Old Trafford on Boxing Day.
The Black Cats have used a superb home record to climb to 6th place in the Premier League, but Steve Bruce will head back to Manchester with a long list of players unavailable for this game. Influential midfielders Lee Cattermole (suspended) and Danny Welbeck (ineligible) will both be missing, while John Mensah’s injury has placed him in a very busy treatment room alongside another centreback, Titus Bramble, amongst others. Sunderland have managed to cope with their increasing selection problems with recent wins at home over Bolton and West Ham, but their away from has not been so impressive. Since an incredible 3-0 win at Stamford Bridge, Sunderland have lost at Wolves and drawn 0-0 at 16th place Fulham.
Manchester United, meanwhile, will have been delighted with recent events in the Premier League, as they have risen to the top of the pile. A 1-0 home win against Arsenal came in a game that was not, perhaps, filled with a tremendous amount of quality, but their 7-1 victory over Blackburn highlights the ability that the Red Devils have to really do damage to teams. The return of Vidic should help to sure up United’s already solid defence, and with Sunderland’s own injury hit backline, this could be a game too far the visitors.
Manchester United are not likely to take Sunderland lightly given their 0-0 draw at the Stadium of Light earlier in the season, and Sir Alex Ferguson’s side could be primed to produce a bag full of goals against depleted Sunderland. The Black Cats have survived injuries in recent contests, but the loss of Cattermole and Welbeck could be the rather large straws that break the camel’s back.
SUGGESTION:
Manchester United -1 HANDICAP WIN (5/6 @ 888sport)
Trust QPR to return to form
MANY punters will have been badly burned by QPR following their 3-1 home defeat against Watford on national television on the 10th of December, but they can be trusted to take all three points in the top of the table clash against Swansea on Boxing Day.
QPR followed up that home defeat against Watford with a 2-0 defeat at Elland Road against an in-form Leeds team, but a return to their home patch will be just what the doctor ordered for Neil Warnock’s men. Prior to that defeat against Watford, QPR had dispatched second-placed Cardiff City 2-1 at home, as well as comfortably beating Preston 3-1 at Loftus Road. Indeed, much of QPR’s recent so-called ‘blip’ in form can be put down to their away performances, where a selection of draws have been accumulated – though gaining a point at Nottingham Forest, for example, is no indicator of a poor performance. In Adel Taarabt, Rangers still have one of the best players in the Championship and their position at the top of the league is by no means a false one.
Swansea themselves are in no great run of form at the moment. A 1-0 defeat at Sheffield United last time out followed up a disappointing home draw against Millwall. Recent victories for the Swans have been secured against struggling Ipswich and Middlesbrough, while a point at Doncaster was only salvaged by a last minute equaliser. The Swans also have the best defence in the championship to deal with, and their 3-1 win at Ipswich aside, the south Wales unit have not managed more than one goal in any game since a 3-0 win at Crystal Palace in October. The two sides also played out a 0-0 draw at the Liberty Stadium back in mid-October, and despite having good possession at Sheffield United a week ago, Swansea failed to create many chances. That lack of firepower may well be their undoing against the leaders.
Some will be wary of backing QPR at a relatively short price given their recent form, as well as Swansea’s lofty position in the table, but now is the time to profit on a team that still remains as the most likely to win the Championship title this season. Swansea are in no great run of form themselves, while QPR’s recent struggles have been over-played – especially given the fact that Rangers have won three of their last four matches at home, two of which were against sides in the top seven places in the division. At 6/5, QPR do represent value in this contest.
SUGGESTION:
QPR WIN (6/5 @ Victor Chandler)
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