Follow Wolves to get past Wigan

WOLVES have been sitting in the Premier League relegation zone for three months, but they should backed to take a critical three points from fellow strugglers Wigan on Boxing Day.

14 of Wolves’ 15 points this season have been gained at home and the club is currently riding a two-game home winning streak having recorded wins over Birmingham (1-0) and Sunderland (3-2) in their last two games at Molineux. A 3-0 defeat at Blackburn in the middle of those two victories was a result that flattered the hosts, and while Wolves are clearly no world beaters, their recent form has seen a genuine improvement. Although Wolves did only manage a 1-1 home draw with bottom club West Ham, their home form represents the key to their survival hopes, with Stoke and Manchester City also leaving the west midlands with no points this season.

Wigan were successful by a 2-0 scoreline when the teams met earlier in the campaign, but Roberto Martinez still must be concerned by a lack of genuine quality in the ranks. A 0-0 draw at Everton in their last game probably said more about Everton’s own issues up front than it does about a resilient Wigan defence, and a meek 3-1 defeat at West Ham in late November raises questions about Wigan’s stomach for the scramble for points against their relegation rivals. Home form has been Wigan’s recent strength, as prior to their rather fortunate draw at Everton, Wigan had suffered defeat in their five previous away contests (at Fulham, Blackburn, Manchester United, West Ham and Arsenal in the Carling Cup). They will not be helped in this match, either, by the absence of suspended Maynor Figueroa.

Given Wolves’ good recent home form and Wigan’s general lack of quality, there is no reason not to get on board with the hosts at a best price of 23/20, as they look to end their lengthy stay in the drop zone.

SUGGESTION:

Wolves WIN (23/20 @ totesport and Paddy Power)

Leave Fulham alone at evens

FULHAM have been the draw specialists in the Premier League this season, and the bookmakers have them correctly priced at evens to beat West Ham in the opening game on the Boxing Day slate.

Despite winning only twice all season in the league (v Wigan and v Wolves), Fulham’s capacity for gaining single points still has them placed one spot outside of the relegation zone, in 16^th position. Pressure on manager Mark Hughes is certain to increase, however, if his team continue failing to take victories against other teams near the foot of the table. Fulham’s form of late has not been awful, a home draw last week against Sunderland was preceded by a single goal defeat at Arsenal, but a 1-1 home draw against Birmingham (notoriously bad travellers) at the end of November raises concerns over their price for this contest.

As for Fulham’s opponents, West Ham find themselves bottom at Christmas and could soon find themselves without a manager. The knives seem to be out for Avram Grant unless he can start to turn the Hammers fortunes around in the near future, and although a point at Blackburn last week will have helped somewhat, wins are the order of the day for West Ham. After an appalling 3-0 defeat at Anfield, West Ham’s performances have improved in recent weeks. A 4-0 Carling Cup success against Manchester United may have represented the catching of lightening in a bottle, but the Hammers did beat Wigan at home and as well as gaining the creditable draw at Blackburn. A 1-0 defeat at Sunderland is itself not that much of a bad result given the Black Cats impressive home record. Rob Green’s return from injury for this clash may also help West Ham frustrate their goal starved opponents, yet West Ham’s own inability in front of goal is well noted – their strikers have hit the net only six times all season.

While West Ham’s performances of late have not been inspiring, they have started to show some resolve for their under-fire boss. Given their battling efforts, and Fulham’s own inability to win football matches, there is enough to suggest that the even money about a Fulham success is best avoided. Those who take such a price would no doubt questioning how rational it was for them to be tempted if the match ended in a draw, and that fact alone suggests that the price is one best avoided.

SUGGESTION:

No Bet

Update - San Diego State 35-14 Navy

SAN Diego State won their first bowl game since 1969 against Navy last night, as predicted here. The Aztecs jumped out to an early 14-0 lead, but the Midhsipmen rallied to stay within touching distance into the 4th quarter.

However, freshman running back Ronnie Hillman was the star for the Aztecs, gaining over 200 yards, and San Diego State's ability to throw and run the ball effectively proved too much for Navy as the game progressed.

Another win for the blog, this time at 4/6, makes me 3/3 (100%) on the week. A full weekly recap will follow at the end of the week.

Aztecs to overcome Navy Midshipmen

THE Navy Midshipman will be feeling right at home in Qualcomm Stadium on Thursday night, as they take on San Diego State University in the Poinsettia Bowl. Heavy rain in southern California, itself a rare event, has left nearly 10 inches of muddy water on the field heading into Thursday’s game, and though bowl officials have been loudly declaring that the game will start as scheduled, the mud-bath promises to have an impact on the type of game that ends up taking place.

Navy will also have plenty support in the stadium for the game, the city of San Diego is home to the largest naval base on America’s west coast, and the success that those fans wish to see from their football team will likely need to be inspired by Navy’s three-pronged rushing attack. Led by Ricky Dobbs, Navy boasts a rush-offence that averages 289 yards per game, a total that was 5^th best in the nation. Dobbs is the stereotypical ‘option’ quarterback, and the senior will end an excellent career with Navy on Thursday.

How much a muddy field with affect the potency of Navy’s run game will be important, however, as Navy’s attack is far superior on the ground than through the air. That said, San Diego State will have their own plans to foil the naval running game. The Aztecs ranked third in run defence in the Mountain West Conference, and in head coach Brady Hoke, the Aztecs have a talented coach who has been able to game plan for Navy for several weeks. San Diego State defensive co-ordinator Rocky Long was also head coach of New Mexico in 2004, when he watched Navy run their way to victory in the Emerald Bowl – there will be no shortage of planning to deal with Navy’s triple threat attack.

On the other side of the matchup, San Diego State’s own offence has the ability to put up big points. Ryan Lindley was the top quarterback in the Mountain West Conference this season, while running back Ronnie Hillman broke freshman rushing records. The Aztecs offence is far more balanced than Navy’s, something that could become a major factor depending on how the field plays as the game moves on.

San Diego State, despite going 8-4 to Navy’s 9-3, also boasts some impressive performances this season. The Aztecs lost by only 5 points to undefeated TCU, lost by only 4 points to #20 Utah, lost by three on the road to bowl bound by BYU and, again, by only three on the road against Missouri. Four losses they may be, but San Diego State boasts impressive losses coupled with their 8 victories. SDSU also has the advantage in games against common opponents, having beaten Air Force 27-25, while Navy lost to the same team 14-6. Navy’s notable win was against Notre Dame, but a loss against Duke failed to add anything positive to their resume. They do, however, come into the contest on a four game winning streak.

San Diego State is clearly better than their 8-4 record might immediately suggest, and that is why they should be backed to win tonight. The Aztecs first bowl game in over a decade is some achievement by itself, but SDSU players have not been allowed to get ahead of themselves. Playing at home will also stop the team from getting too distracted by bowl festivities. Navy, meanwhile, are becoming bowl veterans, but their one-dimensional offence will not be enough against a stout defence and a well balanced SDSU attack. Take San Diego State to win their first bowl game since 1969.

SUGGESTION:

San Diego State Aztecs WIN (4/6 @ Sportingbet, Stan James and William Hill)

Update - Boise State 26-3 Utah

BOISE State ended their season with a comfortable win last night, as predicted on this blog. The Broncos beat the Utah Utes 26-3, inspired by an 84-yard touchdown run in the second quarter by Doug Martin. The Broncos defence helped the cause, as Boise covered a 16.5 point spread, holding the Utes offence to just 8 first downs all night.

The Broncos may not have wanted to be in Vegas for a bowl game, but those who believed in their talent and took the 10/11 on Boise to cover the spread were well rewarded.

Overall, 2/2 (100%) on picks this week. A full review of picks will follow at the end of the week.

Boise will end season in style

BOISE State’s national championship aspirations came to a sudden end with a dramatic 34-31 loss against Nevada, but no matter how disappointed the Broncos are to be playing pre-Christmas rather than post new years day, they can be backed to deliver against the Utah Utes.

The Broncos were most people’s darling team this season as they, alongside TCU, tried to play the role of BCS-buster with an undefeated season. However, despite over-coming several key hurdles on their way to an undefeated season, with wins over Hawaii, Oregon State and notably Virginia Tech, the Broncos dream ended on the road against Nevada. The Broncos led that game by a score of 24-7 at halftime, only to blow that lead, before missing a potential game-winning chip shot field goal. The loss bumped Boise out of the race for a BCS bowl game and down to #10 in the most recent poll.

However, while the loss was ultimately heartbreaking for the Broncos, it was a blip game where Boise allowed a ferocious second half comeback on the road. Perhaps not too much should be read into that defeat, and instead the focus should remain on Boise’s high-powered offence led by Kellen Moore. Moore was the second best quarterback in the country this season, behind only Heisman-trophy winning Cam Newton from Auburn, a vote in which Moore himself finished fourth. The fact remains that just a few weeks ago, Boise was seemingly poised for BCS pay dirt, and the spectacular failure of a kicker in a hostile road environment should not over-shadow the great talent that the Broncos possess. Boise also showed a resiliency after the Nevada loss, putting up 50 points against Utah State in a victory to end the regular season.

The Broncos will, though, have to try end a 9-game bowl winning streak by their opponents if they are to claim victory in Las Vegas. The Utah Utes, on their way to a BCS conference themselves next season, are no strangers to big post-season games, and big post-season success. Utah themselves at one point were ranked inside the top ten, before a huge loss to eventual unbeaten TCU. That November 6^th loss, by a 40-point margin at home, clearly took its toll on the Utes, as they lost by 25-points the next week on the road against Notre Dame. However, the Utes did rebound in their final two games of the regular season with gritty, come from behind wins, against San Diego State and BYU. Indeed, Utah players have rallied behind their ‘comeback ability’, a toughness and resiliency that could exploit Boise’s inability to necessarily put teams away. That resiliency will be tested even more in this match up however, as the Utes will be missing their starting quarterback Jordan Wynn. Senior Terrance Cain, who has a 9-1 record, will start in Wynn’s absence, but Cain has blown hot and cold this season and threw two interceptions in the team’s last game against BYU.

Utah’s resolve, and their 9-game bowl win streak, should not be discounted given Boise’s ultimate disappointment in playing this game. Indeed, Boise’s bowl wins may be memorable, but the Broncos have a history of playing close games in the post-season; their last seven bowl games have all been decided by seven points or less. However, no matter how resilient and mentally strong Utah have been in adversity, it cannot hide the fact that they were demolished in their most important game of the season against TCU. Without Jordan Wynn, the Utes will struggle to keep up with Kellen Moore and company, who showed their own ability to battle, of sorts, with a win last week. Boise’s history of close bowl games is a concern given their potential lack of motivation (coupled with their ability to give sizeable advantages away) but at the end of the day the ability to put big points on the board will be enough to carry the Broncos to a comfortable victory. Take Boise State to win, and take them to cover the spread as well, as they end the season in style.

*Boise State has won by 17 or more points nine times this season*

SUGGESTION:

Boise State -16.5 (10/11 @ various)